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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Playing Russian Roulette in Tehran |
| 2010-09-11 |
| [Asharq al-Aswat] Amir Taheri "It reminds me of Egypt under Nasser," a friend commented the other day as we watched television footage of crowds in Tehran shouting the usual slogans. Crowds always resemble each other. It is individuals that are different. In this particular case, however, the resemblance went beyond the crowds. Like Egypt in the 1960s, the Islamic Republic appears to be determined to provoke a war without being prepared for it. Some commentators believe that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's public statements do not reflect the "deep down" position of the Islamic Republic. After all, he is one player among many in Tehran, they argue. Nevertheless, whether or not Ahmadinejad speaks for the 'real leaders' of the Khomeinist regime is beside the point. There is no doubt that the president's statements, and behaviour, have contributed to raising the tension in the region and increasing the threat of war. Judging by his public statements, Ahmadinejad seems to believe that only two countries might take military action against the Islamic Republic: Israel and the United States. He further believes that neither nation would take such action for fear of defeat. "If Israel takes action against us, it will be wiped off the map," Ahmadinejad said in Doha, Qatar, the other day as a smiling emir watched. As for the US, Ahmadinejad claims that a military clash with the Islamic Republic would spell "the end of American global hegemony." In his Qatar statement, Ahmadinejad revealed that his analysis of the situation was based on two assumptions. The first is that Israel "lost" the mini-wars against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. If they couldn't win against such weak adversaries, how could they win against us? Ahmadinejad's second assumption is that the US is incapable of fighting a "real war." "The Americans never fought a real war," he said in Qatar. In Korea and Vietnam, the Americans were just "slaughtering civilian populations." As for Afghanistan and Iraq, the US did not face "a real army" and just "walked through an empty country." It is astonishing how Ahmadinjad's analysis resembles that of Nasser and Saddam Hussein in their respective moments of truths. In his memoirs, former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov relates how, on the eve of the Six Day war in 1967, Nasser assured him that Israel would not dare attack Egypt and that if they did the Jewish state would be "wiped off the map." As fate would have it, Primakov also had an opportunity, almost four decades later, to hear similar analysis from another Arab autocrat, Saddam Hussein. The Iraqi despot was also "absolutely certain" that the Americans had no stomach for a "real war" and would not come down from their planes to "fight like men." Just 18 hours before the first Americans tanks entered Baghdad Saddam Hussein was shown on his television telling a crowd that no US soldier would dare enter the capital. Ahmadinejad's stance may be written off as another example of his naiveté or his widely publicised claim that the Hidden Imam, a messiah like figure who is supposed to come at the end of time, will charge into the battle to annihilate his enemies. However, Iranians would have every reason to be concerned about the president's judgement. He is violating many of the rules of leadership at a time of crisis. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #1 In your heart, you know he is nuts. |
| Posted by: Goodluck 2010-09-11 17:00 |