By most historical metrics it would seem impossible for Republicans who currently hold 41 seats in the U.S. Senate to win enough races in November--with only 37 seats are up for grabs-- to take control of the chamber, but a new poll shows GOP candidates in 13 battleground states holding a collective commanding edge over their Democratic counterparts.The eight-point spread is a considerable advantage 84 days until the election.
The poll was conducted by Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies and commissioned by American Crossroads, a group affiliated with Fox News Contributor Karl Rove and former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie. It is not a generic ballot poll which asks respondents about their party preference but rather mentioned specific candidates by name. The 47% - 39% margin comes from polls in 13 battleground states: Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Washington.
"The landscape that has tilted so dramatically toward Republicans in the House is continuing to move in a dramatic way on the Senate side as well," said American Crossroads communications director Jonathan Collegio in a statement announcing the results. "People often think that only House races can get swept up in an electoral wave, but this survey shows that Senate may very well get swept over in the same wave."
Perhaps the data that most suggests a huge wave of support for Republican candidates is the support for GOP nominees from Independent voters who say they favor Republicans 47%-25%.
According to its website, the mission of American Crossroads is to "make Main Street values-individual liberty, limited government, free enterprise and strong national security-once again the top priorities and guiding ethic of American governance."
On the House side there is also some cautious optimism, with a new Gallup poll showing that Republicans are close to taking over the House, but not quite there yet.
Based on comparison to other president's, Obama's approval rating puts Democrats in a more vulnerable position than if the president's approval were more than 50 percent. President Obama's approval is at 45 percent by their latest measure.
The Gallup poll notes the average midterm loss for president's with an approval rating below 50 percent is 36 for the House. The GOP needs 39 for a takeover.
