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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Population in the Arab World declines: UN
2010-07-28
And outside the Arab world, Iran announced a new plan to pay for new babies to boost their population.
[Al Arabiya Latest] New changes in the Arab World are to influence its population into decline, as more girls join schools, work, marry later and desire to produce fewer babies.

"Impressive declines in fertility have been recorded in the Arab region as a result of increased school enrolment among girls, stronger participation of women in the labor force, and the new trends towards "wait hood" or delayed marriage and the formation of smaller families," said The U.N. Economic and Social Commission on Western Asia (ESCWA) in a report.

"According to the 2008 revision, the unweighted average total fertility rate for the Arab countries declined from 6.2 live births per woman in the period 1980-1985 to 3.3 in the period 2005-2010 compared to 2.6 at the world level, consequently reshaping the age structure of the population of the Arab region," the ESCWA report added.

However, rates largely vary in individual countries; Egypt is projected to remain by far the most populous Arab country,
Despite a total fertility rate of 3.01, they are starting from the largest base population, so the Egyptian population will remain high for a while.
reaching a total population of 91.8 million in 2015 and 98.6 million in 2020. Conversely, Comoros, Bahrain, Djibouti and Qatar will remain the countries with the smallest population size, with each accounting for less than 0.5 per cent of that of the Arab region.
With such small starting populations, even if they had a fertility rate of 20, their populations would not quickly reach large numbers. *sigh* But journalists are not expected to understand even simple arithmetic any more.
Also, during 2005-2010, each of Lebanon, Tunisia and the UAE have fertility levels already below replacement level, whereas other countries are set to converge below 2.1 live births per woman by mid century, with the exception of Somalia, Palestine and Mauritania, the report said.
The CIA Factbook website has a nice country by country comparison chart of fertility rates here. Interestingly, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip have significantly different fertility rates, according to the CIA -- one wonders how much those numbers diverge from both what they told the UN and from reality.
Posted by:Fred

#12  That doesn't sound like buying. It sounds like renting.
Posted by: OldSpook   2010-07-28 23:36  

#11  As a side note of marriage, if said male had money, he could buy a wife from any poor family. He can buy any number he wants, from my understanding. When they are old or of no use to him, he can then send them back to the family he bought them from, in what ever condition he left them in.
Posted by: miscellaneous   2010-07-28 20:54  

#10   I didn't see a decline in this report.
I saw a decline in rate of increase.

Apples and oranges, 3dc. The report is talking about Arab birth rates, which they are calling fertility rate. The birth rate has fallen by almost two thirds since 1980. However, given increased life spans in the region -- despite internecine warfare and taqfiri murders -- the total population continues to grow, albeit more slowly than before.

AND don't forget these kaboomers are mostly young males so they are depleting their breeding stock by turning their 17-25 year old men into strawberry jam.

A history of polygamy (polygyny, for those of us who are pedants) means there is expected to be an excess of young men. One older man can service any number of fertile women wives, so that the excess of youths remove themselves from competition effects the birth rate not one iota, James-Karl. Hopefully, as more women insist on monogamous marriages, there should be fewer young men whose see the only path to mating as through the suicide vest.
Posted by: trailing wife   2010-07-28 20:24  

#9  I think if the arab men would find more romance at home instead of the nearest flock of sheep, the birth rate would be higher.

That and the fact they are blowing themselves and their neighbors up in such alarming numbers. AND don't forget these kaboomers are mostly young males so they are depleting their breeding stock by turning their 17-25 year old men into strawberry jam.
Posted by: James Carville/Karl Rove   2010-07-28 19:59  

#8  "Poverty = high birth rate."

♪ The rich get rich and the poor have chil-dren ♫
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut   2010-07-28 19:19  

#7  I didn't see a decline in this report.
I saw a decline in rate of increase.
Posted by: 3dc   2010-07-28 17:24  

#6  Demographic studies have long shown the phenomenon that when a given nation reaches an economic prosperity plateau relative to just that country, suddenly the birthrate drops like a rock to just replacement, not strong growth.

Until this, the most recent example was Mexico, where very abruptly the birthrate dropped from 6 or so to 2.3. Oddly enough, the only Mexicans still having lots of kids were those who had migrated to the US. Go figure.

Importantly, government and culture seems to be almost incapable of raising declined birthrate, but most definitely can lower it even further. That is, programs to improve the *quality* of childen's lives reduce the *quantity* of children.

Likewise, oppressive cultural and religious controls tend to increase the birthrate, out of sheer boredom if nothing else, but when liberalization happens, the birthrate likewise drops. Better quality of life equals less kids.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2010-07-28 11:01  

#5   If you haven't seen this presentation, check it out. It puts the lie to "the poor are getting poorer".

Indeed a fabulous presentation, Spot. The whole poverty question is a fascinating one.

But what intrigues me about this particular UN report is that the caliphatists are forever trumpeting that the inevitability of the conquest of Islam is due as much to outbreeding the rest of the world as it is to conversion by unbelievers. And yet, given the rapidly dropping birth rates, it may turn out to be the Christian Africans who end up having the most babies during this critical period.
Posted by: trailing wife   2010-07-28 10:46  

#4  The rejection of polgamy and the strict tenets of Islam by Arab women was of course not mentioned by ESCWA, but it is a huge factor.

In other words sanity comes to some segments of the islamic population? I'd like to believe this but I'm suspicious by nature. Shuck the whole load of brainwashing aside and I might begin to believe in miraculous conversions.
Posted by: JohnQC   2010-07-28 09:01  

#3  TW - all of the top 10 and most of the top 30 are African. Poverty = high birth rate. If you haven't seen this presentation, check it out. It puts the lie to "the poor are getting poorer".
Posted by: Spot   2010-07-28 08:13  

#2  But, but, but I have my final semester, my BMW, and all my friends at UCLA and I don't WANT to be cousin Bugwat Ali's third wife through an arranged marraige!!!

The rejection of polgamy and the strict tenets of Islam by Arab women was of course not mentioned by ESCWA, but it is a huge factor.
Posted by: Besoeker   2010-07-28 00:53  

#1  Makes me wonder just how many were Taliban(Or their Ilk) How many THEY killed and added to the Bad Asses we killed affects the total?
Posted by: Redneck Jim   2010-07-28 00:19  

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