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| Britain |
| UK General Election update: Tories rule out Lib Dem alliance? |
| 2010-05-03 |
| To be taken with a pinch of salt. A week ago it seemed whoever wanted to govern, they would have to form a coalition with the Lib Dems. Now it seems the Tories think they're pulling ahead and might be able to go it alone. It's admirable on principle, but perhaps foolhardly in practice. It might also lose the support he needs from swing voters, many of whom actively want a coalition government and some of whom no doubt would only vote Tory in the expectation that they would be tempered by the Lib Dems (which, IMO, is stupid). David Cameron is prepared to rule out any coalition deal with the Liberal Democrats and will try to lead a minority government if the Tories narrowly fail to win an outright majority in the General Election on Thursday. The Conservative leader is increasingly confident of winning an overall majority. Mr Cameron believes the momentum is with his party after his confident performance in last week's final leaders' debate, Gordon Brown's "bigoted woman" gaffe and a series of polls showing a fall in Lib Dem support. The Tories are confident an informal understanding with unionist MPs from Ulster could secure Mr Cameron a safe passage with his key early Commons battles, including getting a first Queen's Speech and Budget passed. Mr Cameron is also relying on the reluctance of the Lib Dems or Labour to risk unpopularity with the electorate by bringing down a minority Tory government at a time of economic uncertainty. Relying on the goodwill and patriotism of leftwingers is... novel. Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem leader, indicated yesterday that his party would be unlikely to force another election. Senior Whitehall sources have indicated they expect Mr Cameron to push ahead without a formal coalition if he falls short of a majority. A shadow Cabinet minister said: "We don't need a formal coalition deal if the unionists are on board for the key pieces of legislation." [Cameron] rejected an analysis by the Institute of Fiscal Studies that a Conservative government would have to find a further £52 billion in spending cuts, but acknowledged they would have to go further than they had said so far. "There are undoubtedly going to be some very difficult and tough decisions," he said. "It is incredibly challenging, it hasn't been done in recent times, I completely accept that." Yesterday, polls showed Liberal Democrat support had fallen significantly over the past week -- with the party falling back into third place -- while the Conservatives have a clear lead over Labour. The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph showed Nick Clegg's party dropping four points since a similar survey last week to slump into third place behind Labour, with the Tories on 36 per cent, Labour on 29 per cent and the Lib Dems on 27 per cent. If repeated at the election on an even swing across the country, the figures would leave David Cameron at the head of the largest party in the House of Commons with 279 MPs -- 47 short of an outright majority. 47? That's a lot of MPs short of a majority. Meanwhile, a ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday gave the Conservatives a 10-point lead -- their largest advantage in a poll by the company since February. It put the Tories on 38 per cent, Labour on 28 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 25 per cent. According to the bookmakers, the Conservatives are now favourites to win Thursday's general election with an outright majority. Bookmaker Coral changed its odds on a Tory victory, which stood at 5-4 on Saturday, to become 8-11 favourite after "immense and unprecedented" levels of gambling on the outcome of the poll. Meanwhile, a minority Conservative government could face a "constitutional crisis" over England's relationship with the other UK nations, a think-tank warns today. The Institute for Public Policy Research suggests that a minority Conservative government would have a majority of votes cast in England but not in Scotland or Wales. Such a government would be liable to a Commons defeat on English issues partly on the basis of votes cast by Scots and Welsh MPs, the IPPR predicted. Tell us something we don't know. The Tories won on the popular vote in England at the last election, too. |
| Posted by:Bulldog |
| #4 According to the betting, the BNP and the UKIP are both about a 20% chance of winning a seat. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2010-05-03 22:45 |
| #3 No outright majority is the current betting favourite, about 10% ahead of a Conservative majority. It will be tight. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2010-05-03 22:35 |
| #2 I count about nine percent to be divvied up between the UKIP, BNP, and any other minor party which might be floating around there - any Maoist or Stalinist holdouts hiding in the wainscotting? |
| Posted by: Mitch H. 2010-05-03 14:27 |
| #1 I think the Tories have to forswear any alliance, because the Lib Dems are drawing down the Labour vote. But if voters see an alliance, they may return to voting Labour. What I am wondering is how UKIP is doing in the polls. They are running some 500 candidates, and a very good showing by them could give the Tories the edge--in exchange for greater Tory Euroscepticism. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2010-05-03 10:17 |