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Afghanistan
Taliban not in direct conflict with India: spokesman
2010-03-28
[Dawn] Claiming that they were not in direct conflict with India, Taliban have said there was a possibility of reconciliation even as they justified the February 26 Kabul attack on Indians as a legitimate action.

In an interview with Times of India, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid claimed his organisation did not want India out of Afghanistan but assailed the country for supporting Hamid Karzai's government and western forces.

"If the Taliban return to power, we would like to maintain normal relations with countries including India. It's possible for the Taliban and India to reconcile with each other," Mujahid said.

He said: "India's role is different from those countries that sent troops to occupy Afghanistan." At the same time, he added that "India isn't neutral in the Afghan conflict as it is supporting the military presence of US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan and working for the strengthening of the Hamid Karzai government".

Also, he said, "India has never condemned the civilian casualties caused by the occupying forces".

Asked about the February 26 attack in which Indians, housed in two hotels in Kabul, were targeted, the spokesman said Taliban were responsible for it.

He said it was carried out by "Taliban fighters after we got intelligence information that RAW agents were holding a meeting there". The attack claimed the lives of seven Indians. Claiming that India was supporting the Afghan government and the western forces, Mujahid said the country was "therefore, a legitimate target for us".

Asked if Taliban wanted India out of Afghanistan, he said, "We are not saying that India should be out of Afghanistan. Nor can India be completely expelled from Afghanistan."

The Taliban spokesman noted that India and Afghanistan have had historic ties and said: "The Taliban aren't in any direct conflict with India. India troops aren't part of Nato forces, they haven't occupied Afghanistan."

He claimed that Taliban "favour neither India nor Pakistan" but hastened to add that they cannot "ignore Pakistan as it is a neighbouring Islamic country" and was on good terms with them when they were in power.

"India, on the other hand, backed anti-Taliban forces of the Northern Alliance and refused to do business with our government... India backed the NA, and is now supporting the Karzai government."
Just to recap quickly for those who haven't been paying attention: After the U.S.-backed Northern Alliance and the newly-created "Southern Alliance" that hacked up Karzai chased the Taliban government out, the Pak government decided it was going to keep them ticking along in the interests of "Strategic Depth." If there was peace and prosperity in Afghanistan then Pakistan would have nothing to do to draw attention to its pretensions to being a regional power.

Mullah Omar's Quetta Shurah took over conduct of the war in Kandahar and the south, operating openly. AP, UPI, TASS, Xinhua, and Vanity Fair all knew where to find them for interviews, though the Pak intel services were unable to do so. Hekmatyar came back from Iran, escaped a dronezap, and set up shop under the protection of the MMA government and the Jamaat-e-Islami, just like he'd done in the Good Old Days. Even though they didn't like him the Quetta Shurah and al-Qaeda allied with him, assuming there was nobody for him to sell them out to, other than the Americans, and that the Americans wouldn't let him be in charge.

Haqqani allied with al-Qaeda and set up shop in North Wazoo, operating in the eastern part of the Afghanistan. The Pak government remains incapable for finding them, even though they're listed in the phone book. We've been pointing their locations out lately with regular dronezaps.

Al-Qaeda set up shop, with Binny probably in Chitral when he's not traveling. Zawahiri hangs around pretty much with the Haqqani guys, which is the general area where al-Q's operations shurah is.

There is an al-Qaeda in Afghanistan branch and an al-Qaeda in Pakistain branch. The latter is made up of Pakistain's local crop of terrorist organizations, most notably Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Fazlur Rehman Khalil's outfit, whatever they're called these days, and likely Jaish-e-Muhammad.

Had things remained in that state the status would probably still be quo within Pak. They didn't, so it's not. When Perv Musharraf was pushed out of power Nawaz Sharif and his brother reestablished the PML-N in control of the Punjab. Uncle Fester was hand-in-glove with the Talibs.

Things got out of hand with the rise of the domestic Taliban. First there was Nek Muhammad, then Abdullah Mehsud, and finally Baitullah, setting up alliances that crossed some unusual clan and tribal lines. Many was the comely 12-year-old packed off to seal this or that deal, with folks who a mere ten or twenty years before had been on heavy weapons shootin' terms.

Finally there was the TNSM and its leader, Sufi Mohammad, sitting in jug for several years after the fiasco of 2001. With the MMA in power Sufi was a protected species, his conditions in jug no doubt pretty posh. Fazl and Qazi and Sami (until he was squeezed out) were convincing Perv that Sufi was much too holy to be handled roughly. The old man's son-in-law, Mullah Fazlullah, was driving around in his SUV in Swat, broadcasting on his illegal FM channel whenever he got the urge, and he was making alliances with the Mehsuds and with their circle of affiliates. The Mighty Pak Army actually went into Swat and restored order just as Perv was exiting the scene. Nawaz and, to a lesser extent, Zardari pulled back on the order restoration thing and decided to be peacemakers. As we saw, that worked well.

When Swat erupted Sufi was released from jug to act as "peacemaker" with his son-in-law, the objective being to establish shariah throughout the land. Sufi made a deal that was advantageous to the TNSM and to the Talibs, which involved the government caving on all points. Mullah Fazlullah proceeded to break it. By that point the TNSM had ceased to have an independent existence -- it had been swallowed up by the Pak Taliban, the TTP. When the TTP began oozing out of Swat in the direction of Islamabad itself even Nawaz couldn't stop the government from protecting its existence. After all, no government, no boodle.

This time when the Mighty Pak Army went into Swat they weren't fighting the TNSM, the Pony League of Terrorism. They were fighting harder core tough guys, to include Arabs, Chechens, and Uzbeks. It took them longer to clean the place out, and the bad guyz will continue trying to sneak back in.

Adding to the Pak government's concerns was the fact that Baitullah was turning into Pakistain's Zarqawi, only without the insanity. He was responsible for Benazir's assassination, he was responsible for kaboom after kaboom, directed at the Pak government, and he was spreading his tentacles everywhere in open alliance with al-Qaeda. He was also in alliance with the Taliban, especially with the Haqqani shurah, though professing subordination to Mullah Omar. Pak Talibs were trotting off to Afghanistan to fight the infidel and were returning with their skills honed to fight their own government. At one point boomers hit Pak's very intel HQ. That was probably the tipping point for ISI. Even Hamid Gul couldn't do much from that point.

War's not a static thing. Both sides -- or in the case of Pakistain, all eleven sides -- are making moves all the time. Serendipity occasionally dips.

Baitullah got dronezapped. He's now dead, whether blown into his component parts all at once or lingering for weeks in agony is irrelevant. No sooner was Hakimullah named his successor than the drones started looking for him, too. Eventually they seem to have gotten him. While they were looking for Baitullah and Hakimullah they were also hitting other TTP, Qaeda, Haqqani, and Hekmatyar big turbans. Great was the carnage upon the land.

While all this was going on the Marines, the Brits, and the Afghans were warning about the impending operation in Marjah and the vicinity. There were behind the scenes negotiations to break the Taliban from al-Qaeda, Hekmatyar from both, and all three from the Pak Talibs. We mentioned we were going to start drone zapping Quetta.

Last November the ISI moved the Quetta Shurah to Karachi. By this month half the 15-member shurah had been arrested. Qureshi sez today that the Pak government is against a Taliban government in Afghanistan, possibly without his lips falling off.

Mullah Omar is at this point feeling naked and misunderstood. There isn't anyone he can make reassuring noises to except India, but he's doing what he can.
Posted by:Fred

#9  Now that was an unexpected direction, Barbara. Definitely your room.
Posted by: trailing wife   2010-03-28 23:32  

#8  "previous opuses (opusii?)"

Opera, tw.

Only girly-men would write o-pussies (which definitely ain't Fred).

I'll go to my room now.... ;-p
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut   2010-03-28 20:57  

#7  A most excellent summary of a sordid soap opera, Fred. As for me, I'm rooting for the drones.
Posted by: SteveS   2010-03-28 20:10  

#6  Great was the carnage upon the land.

I'm hoping out for "Terrific" instead of merely "Great".
Posted by: Pappy   2010-03-28 15:44  

#5  Thanks, Frank G. I think I'll go back to sleep again, and see if this whole thinking thingie works better in the clear light of noon.
Posted by: trailing wife   2010-03-28 09:48  

#4  previous opuses

Prob'ly opii, in the sober light of morning, although I'm still just guessing. ;-)
Posted by: trailing wife   2010-03-28 09:46  

#3  Someone on the staff at the National Security Council should read and re-read Fred's commentary. Excellent summary.
Posted by: Steve White   2010-03-28 09:46  

#2  Opii.

/He was in Andy Griffith's show, I think
Posted by: Frank G   2010-03-28 09:44  

#1  I vote this goes to the Classics, Fred, or in a new file for summaries. You've done this a few times before, and it's really helpful for those of us who can't keep it all in our heads. In the meantime, I've saved this link as the start of my own summaries file. I'll have to go through the archives to find your previous opuses (opusii? Someone who studied Latin will know.)
Posted by: trailing wife   2010-03-28 02:21  

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