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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Thinking About the Unthinkable: A U.S.-Iranian Deal
2010-03-06
The United States apparently has reached the point where it must either accept that Iran will develop nuclear weapons at some point if it wishes, or take military action to prevent this. There is a third strategy, however: Washington can seek to redefine the Iranian question.
Or Israel can decide not to wait any longer for America to do nothing, and handle it themselves, as they have done before.
As we have no idea what leaders on either side are thinking, exploring this represents an exercise in geopolitical theory. Let's begin with the two apparent stark choices.

The diplomatic approach consists of creating a broad coalition prepared to impose what have been called crippling sanctions on Iran. Effective sanctions must be so painful that they compel the target to change its behavior. In Tehran's case, this could only consist of blocking Iran's imports of gasoline. Iran imports 35 percent of the gasoline it consumes. It is not clear that a gasoline embargo would be crippling, but it is the only embargo that might work. All other forms of sanctions against Iran would be mere gestures designed to give the impression that something is being done.
Posted by:Goober Crealet3411

#2  ... and handle it themselves, as they have done before.

And afterwards, we can all sit around going "Tsk, tsk" and feel quite smug.
Posted by: SteveS   2010-03-06 20:03  

#1  And fifth, attacks must do more than simply set back Iran's program a few months or even years: If the risk of a nuclear Iran is great enough to justify the risks of war, the outcome must be decisive.

Nonsense. Just setting back Iran's program changes their calculations of future risk considerably. Saddam Hussein never even tried to rebuild Osirak, for a recent example. And Israel, having done it once, will find it easier to do a second time, just as they went back into Lebanon twice, and may yet go back into Gaza... especially given the mindset of the current Prime Minister and popular support of Mossad.
Posted by: trailing wife   2010-03-06 18:23  

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