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-Lurid Crime Tales-
Stratfor: The Utility of Assassination
2010-02-26
The apparent Israeli assassination of a Hamas operative in the United Arab Emirates turned into a bizarre event replete with numerous fraudulent passports, alleged Israeli operatives caught on videotape and international outrage (much of it feigned), more over the use of fraudulent passports than over the operative's death. If we are to believe the media, it took nearly 20 people and an international incident to kill him.

STRATFOR has written on the details of the killing as we have learned of them, but we see this as an occasion to address a broader question: the role of assassination in international politics.

Defining Assassination
Posted by:Goober Crealet3411

#12  the killing of Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto by the Americans in World War II was a targeted killing, an assassination
No, it was not an assassination, it was an act of war. Is there something about the English language that is that difficult to get right?
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418   2010-02-26 15:08  

#11  I'm really pissed I wasn't named as one of the 189,655 suspects
Frank G,
It's not too late, you can always set up your own spy page on Facebook
Posted by: tipper   2010-02-26 13:41  

#10  I am Spartacus!
Posted by: SteveS   2010-02-26 13:34  

#9  to dispose of the body, they would've needed 43 other agents.

this investigation is a joke. I'm really pissed I wasn't named as one of the 189,655 suspects
Posted by: Frank G   2010-02-26 11:04  

#8  The only mistake the Israelis made in Dubai, if in fact Mossad is solely responsible, is not quietly "disappearing" al-Mabhouh, Lumpy Elmoluck5091 .

No dead body, no concrete message. Besides, body disposal has it's very own inherent risks and very well might make one late for a scheduled flight out of country and back to Europe for the graduation exercise dinner and final critique.
Posted by: Besoeker   2010-02-26 10:31  

#7  The Israelis should learn from their failure to not only dismantle Black September, but the PLO and Arafat at the time. The only mistake the Israelis made in Dubai, if in fact Mossad is solely responsible, is not quietly "disappearing" al-Mabhouh. "Enhanced interrogation" followed by mob-style body disposal would have left everyone looking over their shoulder. And by Strat-for's rationale, 'utilizing' a few top clerics is morally justified, not only by Israel, but by the US, Britain, Spain, Russia, Indonesia, the Phillippines,......
Posted by: Lumpy Elmoluck5091   2010-02-26 10:25  

#6  #4 Stratfor = Some guy with a computer in his Mom's basement. Posted by Parabellum

Whahaaha... and now you've BURNED him! I silently chuckle a bit when I hear STRATFOR referenced on 'The Factor.'
Posted by: Besoeker   2010-02-26 10:15  

#5  There are some other interesting variables to assassination. The first is payback: is the enemy organization likely to respond with effective counter-assassination?

The second is promotion: Israel once assassinated a South American terrorist leader, and his replacement was Carlos the Jackal, a far more effective terrorist.

The third is deniability: top assassins recruit local nuts to be their trigger men, and are two countries away in the Holiday Inn sipping martinis when the hit goes down.

The fourth is the message: Is the purpose of assassination just death, or is it to send a message? This is in infamous, if fictional, "extreme prejudice."

The fifth is the means: should it look like a homicide, or an accident? If several assassinations are planned, you don't want subsequent kills to put their guard up.

Sixth is the assassination decision making process. There are always more candidates for assassination than are practical, or even desirable. So the list must be scrutinized, as well as the time frame for the hit. This leads to a hierarchy of targets, to maximize the effect of the hit.

Seventh, as with a military operation, the most important part of an assassination plan is the mission, what you want the assassination to accomplish.

And finally eighth, mission abortion. Many assassinations are aborted before execution, so there has to be a clear communications channel open to the assassins, in case the situation has changed.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2010-02-26 10:08  

#4  Stratfor = Some guy with a computer in his Mom's basement.
Posted by: Parabellum   2010-02-26 09:42  

#3  Is Stratfor still a mouthpiece for the oil-field Arabists, or am I letting my early impressions of the site blossom into an unwarrantable prejudiced dismissal?
Posted by: Mitch H.   2010-02-26 08:57  

#2  Rot.

Stratfor probably opposes capital punishment for the same reasons.

These people need to die. If there are more people like them that need to die, they should also.

What is desirable about assassination is that only the people who need to die are killed, unlike the battlefield where plenty of innocents die as "collateral damage" and for the killing on which Stratfor seems to have no major objection.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2010-02-26 08:41  

#1  Assassination is far more effective against a culture oriented in a hierarchical social structure, see 'strong horse', than against a democratic culture.

One story from the Afghan conflict is the view of our opponent. When they shot Soviet officers, the men retreated. When they shoot British or French officers, the men hunker down and await new orders. When they shoot American officers, the troops keep attacking. There's a critical mass that, as reflected even in the Tea Party Movement, that no man is better than another and that we are equal. We value each other equally. In such a society, taking out 'leaders' doesn't have the effect as it would on a society encased in hierarchical arrangements of power and authority and the rituals of ascendancy.

The converse is also true, as our opponents on the battlefield and the MSM have played each death of a soldier and the body count game. Since we are all of equal value, its the numbers that count and not the individuals. That is viewed as the center of gravity to be played against us.

However, from that perspective, the killing of each citizen by the likes of Hamas be it by bullet, bomb, or rocket is an assassination.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2010-02-26 07:38  

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