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| Economy |
| Truckers index drives US GDP fears |
| 2010-02-10 |
| Posted by:tipper |
| #4 An index that measures the health of the US economy by analysing real-time diesel consumption of trucks has cast doubt on the strength of the economic recovery after recording a sharp decline in January. The Pulse of Commerce Index was created by Ceridian, which processes electronic card transactions, and the UCLA Anderson School of Management. It receives data every time a commercial driver fills up a truck with diesel, generating a picture of manufacturing and retail traffic. The index, which launches on Wednesday, has data going back to 1999. Its performance closely tracked rises and falls of gross domestic product. But while the PCI and GDP both rose in the last quarter of 2009, the PCI stalled in January. The decline in the PCI suggests US economic activity slowed in January after the index fell at an annualised rate of 36.8 per cent. The new index provides a window into the economic health of the US, said Edward Leamer, chief economist for the PCI and director of the Anderson Business Forecast: “Inter-state freeways that criss-cross the country are the arteries of the US economy and goods that are transported on them are the lifeblood.” The three-month moving average PCI grew 7.3 per cent in December, mirroring the recently announced 5.7 per cent last-quarter GDP growth figure. The US economy needed a strong January, said Prof Leamer. “But it just didn’t happen. The economy is a lot softer than the GDP numbers suggest.” Recoveries from past recessions often have GDP growth nearing 5 per cent, which is why the data from the final quarter of 2009 was received so positively, mainly because it suggested the job market was set to rebound. But while US unemployment fell slightly dipped from 10 per cent to 9.7 per cent in January, the overall jobs picture has failed to improve significantly. Professor Prof Leamer said the weak performance of the PCI in January supported those forecasting lower rates of GDP growth in 2010. The movement of lumber from the Pacific north west to California may also provide some early clues about a rebound in commercial construction and housing, which will show up in the PCI, Professor Leamer added. “Goods have to be transported for an economy to grow, so it will be important to monitor this index to see if the economy really is on the move,” said Craig Manson, senior vice-president and index analyst with Ceridian. |
| Posted by: tipper 2010-02-10 17:33 |
| #3 I got the same popup. Following the consumption of diesel fuel by trucks is a great way to take the pulse of domestic commerce. A friend of mine is a long-time OTR trucker who works the eastern half of the US, except for New England. He's had a harder time making the money he is used to. His company cut their driver employee's per mile compensation in the last year, but is continuing to invest in its own operations. ASAICT, his company is privately owned and is not leveraged. Other trucking companies needing infusions of credit on a routine basis are not doing as well. So he's working more hours to make the same. --- OTOH, shipping fraudulent financial instruments world-wide is very fuel efficient. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2010-02-10 14:17 |
| #2 I got the same pop-up but not before I scanned the first paragraph. They index the amount of diesel truckers are using to track GDP. We had just noted locally that most traffic is only tractor-trailers with few personal, and mostly local, vehicles on the road. People are definitely not traveling much, with consumption and manufacturing down. Trucking has been the last chance employer for many of the laid-off bluecollar workers so this is definetly a dire harbinger of our economy. Also, cargo theft is up, with many shipments intercepted shortly after being imported and unloaded at the docks. |
| Posted by: Lumpy Elmoluck5091 2010-02-10 11:45 |
| #1 FT has taken the suicidal approach to news by making their site restrictive. As the popup stated "you have viewed your 30 days worth of free articles"... I think I've linked to 2 in 30 days. Let's stop linking to FT (among others) and find different sources, please. |
| Posted by: logi_cal 2010-02-10 09:40 |