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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Taiwan poll setback will force rethink on China |
| 2009-12-07 |
| When Ma Ying-jeou gave his rival candidate a thrashing in May's presidential election , the Harvard-educated lawyer proved he had the charisma to convince Taiwan's 17m voters that his scandal-scarred Kuo-mintang party deserved to be in power. He has retained his celebrity status while the opposition Democratic Progressive party licks its wounds after an extended graft trial sent Chen Shui-bian , Mr Ma's pro-independence predecessor, to prison in September. But the KMT's unexpected loss of five out of 17 provincial mayoral seats in Saturday's local elections must have been a salutary lesson for the president. Speaking after the first significant poll since he came to office, Mr Ma looked drawn and chastened. "The results were not ideal . . . we have been sent an alarm signal and we will thoroughly reflect on our policies," he said. Halfway though a four-year term, his presidency is most noted for its pragmatic approach to mainland China: it has become the party mantra that closer ties are necessary for the sake of the economy. So far Mr Ma has approved direct sea and air links between Taiwan and the mainland for the first time since civil war split the two in 1949, changed travel restrictions and eased cross-strait investments. Later this month representatives of the Beijing and Taipei governments will discuss an economic co-operation framework agreement which prepares the ground for mainland banks to invest in Taiwanese financial institutions. The ECFA is anathema to the DPP, which had stressed the need for a distinct national identity for Taiwan during its eight years in power, a view that infuriated Beijing and led to very limited interaction between the two sides. The doubters warn that as long as Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province that must be united with the motherland - by force if necessary - the government is putting the island's security at risk. Saturday's outcome suggests Mr Ma's government may not have the blanket support required to introduce more radical measures. The ECFA, for example, is already being described as going too far, too quickly, by some legislators. The DPP, meanwhile, has seized on Saturday's results as proof of a successful comeback, claiming the electorate had spoken on the mainland issue. |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #9 My fear is the PRC doesn't care if the people are alive or dead. They just want to claim the property. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2009-12-07 17:17 |
| #8 I know a few Taiwanese and have been in Taiwan recently. Taiwan isn't Hong-Kong. First, the starit is much wider, i, fact much wider than the English channel who was so diffcult to cross and its history is completely different. Orginal dwellers in Taiwan were Australains aborigines unrelated to Chinese. By 1300 AD some Japanese and Chinese pirates use it as a safeplace. Then, it becomes a Portuguese, later Dutch possession. It is the Dutch who imported the first proper Chinese settlers as man power. Somewhere by 1590 the Manchus conquer China and end the Ming dynasty. It is at this point that Ming loyalists escaped to Taiwan and conquered it from teh Dutch. After acouple decades the island fell into Manchu hands and this was first time it was united to China. Less than three centuries later it became japanese and for first and last time the Japanese behaved decently towards the liocals and in addition developped the island. I don't think the Taiwanese regret them but in 1945 they wanted their own country instead of being handled to China. However the Chinese had machine guns and they hadn't; Nowadays Taiwanese feel still less Chinese than in 1945. My only fear is that gentale and likeable people can summon enough reserves of meanness and violence to kill for their country. |
| Posted by: JFM 2009-12-07 15:14 |
| #7 I think the folks in Hong Kong didn't like the PRC much but they came to accept the facts when the time loomed closer and closer and they realized the UK was gonna do nothing to slow or prevent the change-over. Many people grow tired of fighting and living in fear and depending upon others for their protection. Younger generations think differently than older ones. I don't really know any Taiwanese so I might be totally misreading them, but I've noticed this trend in the West and Taiwan, at this point is still part of the west. I hope they are different. I'd love to see them influence the PRC just by continuing to succeed. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2009-12-07 12:43 |
| #6 Interesting because the KMT had an overwhelming advantage in advertsing (count 3 or 4 to 1) For Taiwan joining China I doubt it: Taiwanese like Chinese, whatever the regime, about as much as Americans liked British in 1776. |
| Posted by: JFM 2009-12-07 11:13 |
| #5 Anonymouse, I agree with your assessment. I just don't suspect the political will to fight to defend will last much longer. It would be nice to see India and Israel (and perhaps others) side with Taiwan to help them when the political winds in the US shift. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2009-12-07 10:25 |
| #4 I imagine the Taiwanese people will soon realize the US is unlikely to defend them right now, and the PRC treated Hong Kong reasonably well. They might soon start thinking about becoming a Special Autonomous Area and hoping for the best. I imagine that the entire region will change beyond the next administrations ability to restore things. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2009-12-07 10:23 |
| #3 I am still convinced that because the mainland would have to have an enormous armada of both military and civilian vessels to cross the Taiwan Strait, the Taiwanese should invest in literally millions of coffee-can sized naval mines that would fill those dangerous waters like jellyfish, then "pollute" the waters with them just as the armada launches. With a very short range beacon, so that they would not set each other off, and a lifespan of only a week or two before they became inert and sank, they would severely degrade many of the lightly armored or unarmored troop ships, thus evening the odds. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2009-12-07 09:34 |
| #2 Special situation with Taiwan right now. All their retirement (pensions) and medical insurance was invested in drum roll.. AIG! The PRC (Peoples Republic of China) bought all the AIG paper pertaining to Taiwan. Taiwan is fucked! |
| Posted by: 3dc 2009-12-07 09:25 |
| #1 FTA: "...the Harvard-educated lawyer proved..." Harvard educated lawyer - that's a red flag right there. Wonder if he is contemporary with BHO? |
| Posted by: tipover 2009-12-07 01:50 |