Amidst the stunning events in New York's 23rd congressional district -- with Republican-turned-independent Doug Hoffman suddenly surging to the front and likely to win today's race -- collateral damage has been suffered by some of the GOP's presidential hopefuls who misread the race and the mood of the Republican electorate.Mitt Romney -- formerly a man who seemed willing to show up and plug for any Republican anywhere to pick up a few chits -- was nowhere to be seen in the district. Mike Huckabee, a favorite for religious conservatives who demonstrated a gift for gab in last year's Republican presidential primaries, materialized at an event near the district last week but didn't venture into it or speak up for Mr. Hoffman.
Newt Gingrich, though, may have taken the biggest hit to his relevance. He threw his weight behind Dede Scozzafava, the liberal Republican assemblywoman picked to run by local party bosses, just days before a GOP revolt pushed her out of the race. "I felt very deeply that when you have all 11 county chairman voting for someone, that it wasn't appropriate for me to come in and render my judgment," he now says.
He may not have noticed, but the anti-Scozzafava reaction actually has its roots in the district itself. New York's 23rd was a hotbed of town-hall activity all summer. Mark Barie, chairman of the Upstate Tea Party organization, emerged as leader of an upstate New York rebellion against federal deficits and Obama health-care reform. He turns the idea of outside conservative meddling in the district on its head, telling reporters flat-out his movement is aimed just as much at remaking the Republican Party in Washington: "The people who run the Republican Party are going to have to learn that moving to the left is not going to win them election."
In contrast, pro-life group Susan B. Anthony List, the Club for Growth, Fred Thompson and Dick Armey all endorsed Mr. Hoffman. Then there's Sarah Palin, whose endorsement of Mr. Hoffman focused national media attention on the race and seemed to set in motion the collapse of support for Ms. Scozzafava. Lucky or otherwise, Ms. Palin comes out looking like a leader and Mr. Gingrich doesn't.