CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (October 13, 2009) –Oil demand in developed countries—currently 54 percent of all oil demand—likely reached its all-time peak in 2005, according to a new research report by IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. While world oil demand is now set to grow as the world economy moves from recession to recovery, the demand lost in 30 developed countries that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is not likely to ever be regained, the report finds.“The economic downturn has been masking a larger trend in the oil demand of developed countries,” said IHS CERA Chairman and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Prize, Daniel Yergin. “The fact is that OECD oil demand has been falling since late 2005, well before the Great Recession began.”
The key factor making it unlikely for OECD demand to ever return to its 2005 peak is that petroleum demand in the transportation sector—which accounts for 60 percent of OECD petroleum demand—is likely to flatten out after years of steady growth. Oil demand outside the transportation sector has already been relatively flat since 1980. Now the conjunction of several long-term factors is doing the same to transportation:
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