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China-Japan-Koreas
United Korea 'Could Overtake Japan, Germany'
2009-09-22
Assuming a few things, of course ...
U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs speculates that a unified Korea could overtake G7 countries like France, Germany and Japan in economic strength. In a report Monday, Goldman Sachs projected that given North Korea's potential, a unified Korea will in 30-40 years be on a par with or overtake G7 countries except the U.S. in dollar GDP.

Though North Korea's planned economy system looks on the verge of collapse, it offers a large and cheap competitive workforce and a wealth of natural resources whose value is 140 times larger than its GDP in 2008. A combination of South Korea's technology and funds and North Korea's resources and workforce would be a powerful force, the report said.

It speculates that the reunification of the two Koreas will proceed in three stages: transition (2012-2027), integration (2028-2037) and maturity (2038-2050).

North Korea's per capita income will reach half of South Korea's about 20 years after the integration stage, and the growth rates of the two Koreas will converge at the maturity stage, the bank speculates. A unified Korea will follow the China/Hong Kong reunification model, which allows two political and economic systems to co-exist, rather than the German model, which envisages one side giving aid to the other, the bank speculates.
Posted by:Steve White

#8  Espec given PAKISTANI DEFENCE FORUM > {Madeleine ALbright] USA NO LONGER INTENDS TO BE THE WORLD'S NUMBER ONE STATE.

D *** NG IT, WHY NOT - THE FRENCH ARE NOW THE AGGRESSIVE = BRUTAL GERMANS, THE GERMANS ARE SURRENDERING LIKE FRANCE, BRITAIN = VICTORIANA HAS PMS, + RUSSIANS ARE NOW THE REAL AMERICANS = PRO-DEMOCRAY WESTERN MATERIALIST CONSUMERS??

As iff the above wasn't enuff, my FASCIST MALE BRUTE GUAM BOONIE GUARD DOGS ARE CONTROLLED BY THE MOTHERLY COMMIE ASIAN MINGA MOTHER CAT MAFIA > time to cue GEN. CORNWALLIS + BRITISH ARMY PLAYING "THE WORLD TURNED UPSIDE DOWN" AFTER THE BATTLE OF YORKTOWN.

I just know that wily Mother Cat has a COMMIE AIRBORNE, CCCP-CCCC PATCH, ETC. tattoo under her fur.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2009-09-22 19:50  

#7  Door #2 is probably the best bet there, rj.
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut   2009-09-22 13:31  

#6  Doesn't hurt that China and Japan are going to face a massive demographic problem soon. If the North heads out as migrant workers and the South continues an industrial economy and exploiting resources in the North they might do very well.

Then again the North might just implode and take the neighborhood with it.
Posted by: rjschwarz   2009-09-22 12:38  

#5  Blondie, it has a bark, er barter, economy...
Posted by: Spot   2009-09-22 08:23  

#4  BP, does Pyongyang even have an economy?
Posted by: Cornsilk Blondie   2009-09-22 05:34  

#3  That's because they had one currency for 2 economies.
Posted by: Bright Pebbles   2009-09-22 04:59  

#2  Yeah...30-40 years. That assumes they're not rebuilding Seoul over the radioactive remains of the previous Seoul. 30-40 years...ha. Germany is 20 years into it and they're still having huge integration problems in the East.
Posted by: gromky   2009-09-22 02:53  

#1  We've seen how the reunion worked in Germany.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2009-09-22 01:22  

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