North Korea's coming transition presents dangers and opportunities.by Claudia Rosett
Will North Korea's ailing Dear Leader soon be the Dead Leader? Speculation has been swirling around recent North Korean television footage of a haggard Kim Jong Il, his face gaunt, his once-thick hair receding. Believed to have suffered a stroke last August, Kim, now in his late 60s, has recently been described in South Korean media reports as stricken with pancreatic cancer.
| He looks like death warmed over, or at least we hope ... |
Among U.S. policymakers, lists have been circulating of likely candidates to succeed Kim. High-profile names include Kim's 26-year-old son, Kim Jong Un, and Kim's 63-year-old brother-in-law, Chang Song Taek, a top-ranking official.
| Jong Un is a lightweight. Chang's a player. |
| The BBC has background on Chang Song Taek ; the North Korean Economy Watch blog wrote a piece back in 2005 about Chang Song Taek's career. |
According to a March 16, 2009 report from the Congressional Research Service, since Kim fell ill last year, "A collective decision-making apparatus has emerged, apparently headed by his brother-in-law, Chang Song-Taek." But even that won't tell you much about what comes next.
What is clear is that more than ever, there's an urgent need in Washington for contingency plans on this rogue state. North Korea's regime has established itself as a hub of trouble in Northeast Asia, trafficking missiles and nuclear technology to the Middle East, producing nuclear weapons and issuing apocalyptic statements such as recent threats to wipe America off the globe and drown South Korea in a nuclear "fire shower." Pyongyang's officials have become expert over the years in translating all this into diplomatic shakedown rackets that help sustain the regime.