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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
The Iranian People Speak (Usual suspects leap to Dinnerjacket's defence)
2009-06-15
From the WaPo
The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.
What is the value of a 'public opinion poll' in a country run by thugs? Does anyone think that people will state their honest opinion if there is any chance that the secret police will then beat the crap out of them?
While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad's principal opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran's provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.
Oh, scientific are we? How did you account for the fear factor in your polling?
Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare. Typically, preelection polls there are either conducted or monitored by the government and are notoriously untrustworthy. By contrast, the poll undertaken by our nonprofit organizations from May 11 to May 20 was the third in a series over the past two years. Conducted by telephone from a neighboring country, field work was carried out in Farsi by a polling company whose work in the region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award. Our polling was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.
Now, how is their poll a contrast to the typical rigged poll? Because it is the third in a series, which is what they seem to say here? Non-sequitur. More importantly, note that they don't really say their poll was independent and uncensored.
They'd like to think it was because then it gives them the reassurance that all is well and in conformance with their pre-conceived ideas. That's the whole point of this: Bush is evil, Cheney is evil, therefore Short Round is good, so let's 'prove' it.
The breadth of Ahmadinejad's support was apparent in our preelection survey. During the campaign, for instance, Mousavi emphasized his identity as an Azeri, the second-largest ethnic group in Iran after Persians, to woo Azeri voters. Our survey indicated, though, that Azeris favored Ahmadinejad by 2 to 1 over Mousavi. Much commentary has portrayed Iranian youth and the Internet as harbingers of change in this election. But our poll found that only a third of Iranians even have access to the Internet, while 18-to-24-year-olds comprised the strongest voting bloc for Ahmadinejad of all age groups.

The only demographic groups in which our survey found Mousavi leading or competitive with Ahmadinejad were university students and graduates, and the highest-income Iranians. When our poll was taken, almost a third of Iranians were also still undecided. Yet the baseline distributions we found then mirror the results reported by the Iranian authorities, indicating the possibility that the vote is not the product of widespread fraud.
There is also a possibility that this poll was approved by the Revolutionary Guards. Which seems more likely?

Note that the article is written by the same two stooges who conducted the poll.
Posted by:Therert Fliling2918

#1   "Conducted by telephone"

Hi. I am conducting a poll for a lead NGO, and I would like to know whom you plan to vote for for president. I am not representive of the revolutionary Guards, no sir.
Posted by: liberal hawk   2009-06-15 12:48  

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