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China-Japan-Koreas
Endgame in Korea?
2009-06-14
Lacking the military wherewithal to defeat the South, Kim's regime is simply trying to extend its miserable existence through extortion.
by Stuart Koehl
Long, long piece in the Weekly Standard that suggests that the last thing the Norks will do is to go to war. Mr. Koehl also posits that we and the SKors are close to having a solution for all the Nork military options. Kimmie's bellicose threats, in that context, are more useful for keeping the current regime in power and not about attacking and beating South Korea.

I'm not so sure about that -- Nork artillery could rain a true 'sea of fire' down on Seoul and suburbs for a good couple days if the Norks wanted to do that. Ten thousand artillery tubes firing two rounds a minute for two days could ruin the city. It's becoming clear that the Nork army is a hollow shell that couldn't march south past the first big-box grocery store without coming to a halt. But we shouldn't sit back smugly and think that we can ignore the poofy-haired varmint.
Posted by:Steve White

#9  If fighting starts afresh, many on both sides of ricebowl will be fried.
Posted by: GirlThursday   2009-06-14 19:52  

#8  VARIOUS > NORTH KOREA THREATENS NUCLEAR WAR. Repor will escalate enrichment of URANIUM, + "WEAPONIZE" ITS PLUTONIUM NUCMAT STOCKPILES???
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2009-06-14 18:51  

#7  Not 20,000. The Norks probably have 1000 long range arty and rocket systems that can reach Seoul. Each 170mm shell can collapse a large part of a high rise apartment. The minute NK opens up, counter battery will be headed their way. The nukes are for bluster. One use and it's instant death for the Norks.

Should have let them all starve in 1994, but that cancer Carter just won't die.
Posted by: ed   2009-06-14 12:27  

#6  OldSpook, I saw your comment before and you are indeed correct: a 4 kT air-burst over Seoul would kill tens of thousands. It would induce hysteria in millions (understandably so) and thus make the defense of Seoul next to impossible.

But even if the Norks didn't use a nuke, 20,000 long-range, heavy artillery shells a minute for a day or two would accomplish the same thing. So I think Mr. Koehl is being a bit dismissive of what would happen to South Korea if indeed the Norks decided to have a big shoot-off.
Posted by: Steve White   2009-06-14 11:32  

#5  South Korea should begin the evacuation of civilians within 20 miles of the DMZ. (If Pakistan can fight through Swat, then SK can send everyone on a vacation to the countryside for a couple weeks.) Once they are largely out of range, demand the NK army immediately deliver Kimmy and crew dead or alive. Problem solved.
Posted by: rammer   2009-06-14 10:37  

#4  Ever heard of "Prisoner's Dilemma", RoO?
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2009-06-14 08:14  

#3  I'm sure plenty of people in NK benefit from the current sabre rattling, but who would benefit from an actual attack on SK, Japan, China, et al? To attack one of them is to ask for a crushing defeat by all their enemies. That pretty well kills any career ambitions for the dictator hopefuls. Theoretically they can do a lot of damage to SK but the price to the dictator wannabies would be total defeat.
Posted by: Richard of Oregon   2009-06-14 06:24  

#2  No worry. US funds will be made available.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2009-06-14 03:58  

#1  Add in a couple of "small" yield nuclear weapons and maybe even a dirty bomb or two...

Ref: the post here on the burg a couple weeks ago of the effects of even a 4 KT "primitve nuke" over the population center of Seoul.
Posted by: OldSpook   2009-06-14 01:57  

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