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| Economy |
| The Obama Numbers Are Pure Fiction. |
| 2009-06-09 |
| The Media Fall for Phony 'Jobs' Claims By WILLIAM MCGURN Tony Fratto is envious. Mr. Fratto was a colleague of mine in the Bush administration, and as a senior member of the White House communications shop, he knows just how difficult it can be to deal with a press corps skeptical about presidential economic claims. It now appears, however, that Mr. Fratto's problem was that he simply lacked the magic words -- jobs "saved or created." "Saved or created" has become the signature phrase for Barack Obama as he describes what his stimulus is doing for American jobs. His latest invocation came yesterday, when the president declared that the stimulus had already saved or created at least 150,000 American jobs -- and announced he was ramping up some of the stimulus spending so he could "save or create" an additional 600,000 jobs this summer. These numbers come in the context of an earlier Obama promise that his recovery plan will "save or create three to four million jobs over the next two years." Mr. Fratto sees a double standard at play. "We would never have used a formula like 'save or create,'" he tells me. "To begin with, the number is pure fiction -- the administration has no way to measure how many jobs are actually being 'saved.' And if we had tried to use something this flimsy, the press would never have let us get away with it." Of course, the inability to measure Mr. Obama's jobs formula is part of its attraction. Never mind that no one -- not the Labor Department, not the Treasury, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- actually measures "jobs saved." As the New York Times delicately reports, Mr. Obama's jobs claims are "based on macroeconomic estimates, not an actual counting of jobs." Nice work if you can get away with it. And get away with it he has. However dubious it may be as an economic measure, as a political formula "save or create" allows the president to invoke numbers that convey an illusion of precision. Harvard economist and former Bush economic adviser Greg Mankiw calls it a "non-measurable metric." And on his blog, he acknowledges the political attraction. "The expression 'create or save,' which has been used regularly by the President and his economic team, is an act of political genius," writes Mr. Mankiw. "You can measure how many jobs are created between two points in time. But there is no way to measure how many jobs are saved. Even if things get much, much worse, the President can say that there would have been 4 million fewer jobs without the stimulus." Mr. Obama's comments yesterday are a perfect illustration of just such a claim. In the months since Congress approved the stimulus, our economy has lost nearly 1.6 million jobs and unemployment has hit 9.4%. Invoke the magic words, however, and -- presto! -- you have the president claiming he has "saved or created" 150,000 jobs. It all makes for a much nicer spin, and helps you forget this is the same team that only a few months ago promised us that passing the stimulus would prevent unemployment from rising over 8%. It's not only former Bush staffers such as Messrs. Fratto and Mankiw who have noted the political convenience here. During a March hearing of the Senate Finance Committee, Chairman Max Baucus challenged Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on the formula. "You created a situation where you cannot be wrong," said the Montana Democrat. "If the economy loses two million jobs over the next few years, you can say yes, but it would've lost 5.5 million jobs. If we create a million jobs, you can say, well, it would have lost 2.5 million jobs. You've given yourself complete leverage where you cannot be wrong, because you can take any scenario and make yourself look correct." Now, something's wrong when the president invokes a formula that makes it impossible for him to be wrong and it goes largely unchallenged. It's true that almost any government spending will create some jobs and save others. But as Milton Friedman once pointed out, that doesn't tell you much: The government, after all, can create jobs by hiring people to dig holes and fill them in. If the "saved or created" formula looks brilliant, it's only because Mr. Obama and his team are not being called on their claims. And don't expect much to change. So long as the news continues to repeat the administration's line that the stimulus has already "saved or created" 150,000 jobs over a time period when the U.S. economy suffered an overall job loss 10 times that number, the White House would be insane to give up a formula that allows them to spin job losses into jobs saved. "You would think that any self-respecting White House press corps would show some of the same skepticism toward President Obama's jobs claims that they did toward President Bush's tax cuts," says Mr. Fratto. "But I'm still waiting." |
| Posted by:Omoter Speaking for Boskone7794 |
| #4 Compare wid PAKISTANI DEFENCE FORUM > OBAMA THE DAIJAL [Islamo-Muslim ANTICHRIST]??? ALso, FOX NEWS this AM > "OBAMA IS A FALSE PROPHET"??? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2009-06-09 20:04 |
| #3 In these times, it's good to remember that while we can beguile ourselves and others with all sorts of dreams, reality always has the last word. |
| Posted by: Richard of Oregon 2009-06-09 15:51 |
| #2 If the "saved or created" formula looks brilliant, it's only because Mr. Obama and his team are not being called on their claims. Who will call them on it? Not the State Run Media. Krauthammer nailed Barry's numbers using the term "fantasia." |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2009-06-09 14:55 |
| #1 The media is/are mostly interested in cheering Obama and the economy on, rather than informing themselves (and us) about the terrible predicament we're in. "Things are bad and getting worse" doesn't sell papers, I know. Here's something else the media isn't mentioning (from Karl Denninger) Remember we were told that the "PPIP" was absolutely necessary to get the "toxic assets" off the bank balance sheets - and without it, we would not be able to clear the banking system and restore our economy to balance. “We’re still in the process of assessing whether a legacy [i.e., worthless toxic waste mortgages taken out by deadbeat borrowers] RMBS [Residential Mortgage Backed Security] program is feasible, and if it were feasible, whether it would be significant enough to make a major impact,” Dudley said at a conference today in New York hosted by the Securities and Financial Markets Association and Pension Real Estate Association. His comments add to signs that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s [TTT's] Public-Private Investment Program [PPIP] to boost debt prices and rid banks of devalued assets to expand lending is stalling, after helping to spark a rally in stocks and bonds. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. yesterday delayed a test sale of bad loans held by U.S. banks that had been billed as a tryout for its role. --- Now the truth comes out. --- Nobody will have anything to do with this bilge - that is, there are no bids and no offers. Why not? THESE [RMBS] ARE BONDS! What happens when you tamper with bankruptcy priority in the bond market? [e.g. GM & Chrysler bankruptcy management by the Gov't] Bond buyers [aka "suckas"] disappear. Especially when the bond lays under some asset class that has some sort of "political connection." [i.e., Obama's supporters] Is there anything more politically connected than houses and homeownership? Probably not. Let's face the facts: Obama's Administration has destroyed the very program they claim is necessary to return the banking system [i.e, FUBAR] to health, and which was responsible for essentially the entire rally off the March lows - a TRIPLING in many cases for banks and a 40% move in the broad market. What do you think might happen when the market figures out that the PPIP will NEVER happen, the system will not be cleared, and that as the spending continues and rates rise, what's left of the housing market (and the mortgage securities still sitting on the bank balance sheets!) continue to blow up? |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2009-06-09 14:26 |