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| Home Front: Politix |
| Fast-track to failure |
| 2009-05-28 |
| Excerpt.. Against this deteriorating backdrop, how should the U.S. respond? While the time for diplomatic carrots and U.N. resolutions has clearly passed, Mr. Obama remains wedded to that approach, with little regard for wider, long-term consequences. Consider the examples of South Korea and Japan. Over the past three months, both have been threatened by their enemy's long-range missiles, and now that same regime has detonated a nuclear weapon. That leaves Tokyo and Seoul with a sobering choice. Remain under the American umbrella (which Washington appears reluctant to use), or consider building their own nukes. With their advanced technological and industrial bases, both Tokyo and Seoul could have nuclear weapons in a little over a year, a development that would likely spur all-out arms race in the region. And rest assured, the nuclear option is being quietly discussed in both capitals, as confidence in American (read "the Obama Administration") sinks like a rock. |
| Posted by:tu3031 |
| #8 Good question. My answer would depend on what extent the PRC backs their yappy rabid dog. If SK, Japan (& Taiwan?) had reach to deliver the big boom to Three Gorges, the mix would be wide open on motivations, options, restraints |
| Posted by: Frank G 2009-05-28 22:34 |
| #7 Frank G - A question - to what extent do either Japan or ROK need the missile capability? Wouldn't aircraft, or in ROK, artillery work? I wonder if what's going on is press release brinksmanship with the PRC - as in make the Chinese decide to shut down Kim, or accept multiple near neighbors with nuclear capacity. Also could make for interesting diplomatic opportunity for Taiwan and Vietnam. |
| Posted by: Halliburton - Mysterious Conspiracy Division 2009-05-28 22:27 |
| #6 If the ROKs had already put together a nuke, the NORKs would be further along than they are. |
| Posted by: rwv 2009-05-28 20:15 |
| #5 OP - I'd agree with that assessment. Given Kim's erratic behavior and China/Russian bullying, I'm thinking there's no way the Japanese have allowed themselves to be more than one step away from assembling a ready-designed nuke. Now, do they have the missile tech?....uh huh |
| Posted by: Frank G 2009-05-28 19:56 |
| #4 I'm sure Japan hasn't actually CONSTRUCTED a nuclear weapon, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn all the components - including the nuclear material - were stored in a "secure environment" somewhere in Japan. Korea, I believe, has the capability to build a working nuclear weapon, but hasn't (yet) done any work on actually producing the pieces necessary. |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2009-05-28 19:30 |
| #3 Perhaps it's time to give a withdrawal date for the US nuclear umbrella errr...Ima thinkrn Jan 21st this year was it |
| Posted by: Frank G 2009-05-28 19:19 |
| #2 South Korea is like Japan in that both can break out to nuclear world power status at any time. Perhaps it's time to give a withdrawal date for the US nuclear umbrella and complicate the situation for the world's dictators. Korea Space Launch Vehicle Nuclear power in South Korea |
| Posted by: ed 2009-05-28 19:08 |
| #1 I'd expect (as others here have speculated) that SK and Japan, with their long-standing neighborhood bullies and their own excellent technological base, may already have some ready-to-assemble nukes, the rocket tech available, and now a reason to put the whole shebang together. |
| Posted by: Frank G 2009-05-28 17:59 |