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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Mexico says flu epidemic past peak
2009-05-04
[Mail and Globe] Mexico's flu epidemic has passed its peak, the Mexican government said on Sunday, and experts said the new H1N1 swine virus still could impact world health but may be no more severe than normal flu.

Mexican Health Minister José Angel Córdova warned, however, it was too early for Mexico -- the epicenter of an outbreak that has spread to 19 countries -- to let down its guard.

Córdova said the outbreak of H1N1 flu appeared to have peaked in Mexico between April 23 and 28 and fewer people had admitted themselves to hospitals with serious flu symptoms in the past few days.

"The evolution of the epidemic is now in its phase of descent," Cordova told a news conference in Mexico City, where millions of people had heeded government advice to stay at home. "There is evidence that we are going downward."

After days of alarm and a partial shutdown of the economy that had kept streets eerily quiet, the atmosphere in Mexico's capital appeared more relaxed on Sunday, with some people venturing out on bikes or running. Many no longer wore masks. As testing improves, Mexican authorities have scaled back their estimate of how many people could have died from the flu strain to over 100, down from 176. Only 19 deaths in Mexico are confirmed as being caused by this flu.

But new cases of the virus, which mixes swine, avian and human flu strains, still were being tracked across the world, keeping alive fears of the threat of a pandemic. Experts stressed that the term "pandemic" describes geographic spread and does not categorize severity of illness.

The WHO said its laboratories had identified 787 H1N1 flu infections in 17 countries, including Ireland. Its toll lags national reports but is considered more scientifically secure.

Colombia became the latest country to report a confirmed case of the disease.

The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said on Sunday the new flu had spread to 30 US states and infected 226 people.
Posted by:Fred

#9  RJ at #2 - IIUC it had human, avian, and swine components. I think this was a useful heads-up. I know I quit licking doorknobs and keyboards. It's a sacrifice I'm willing to make. For the children
Posted by: Frank G   2009-05-04 19:56  

#8  I'll call this as BS. There is no way the peak has been passed.

What's happening is where containment policies and reasonably accurate reporting is in place, the rate it spreads has decreased and may even be negative ie declining cases).

Where containment policies are not in place, it will be happily spreading.

Best case is it spreads in a relatively mild form. But even then it may well revert to a severe form at multiple points.
Posted by: Phil_B   2009-05-04 19:05  

#7  Probably not out of harm's way. Viruses mutate and become even nastier if your body has no antibodies to fight them with. Because it has spread globally it is sure to become genetically creative and hopefully it won't wipe most of us out. It may be those who have gotten the swine flu now may build up a tolerance for it's eventual return while those of us who sigh and say "glad that's over" may be counting the chickens before thier hatched.
Posted by: Angineque tse Tung3914   2009-05-04 18:36  

#6  The administration is letting a crisis slip out of its hands. After all, "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste"
Posted by: JohnQC   2009-05-04 18:05  

#5  My fear is for the 2nd and 3rd reoccurances like the 1918 flu, when every let their guard down.
Posted by: Clomoling Black6393   2009-05-04 14:56  

#4  The flu is the flu. It can be prevented easily by simply following a few precautions to fight off the virus. There are many helpful health resources available to help.
Posted by: Erin   2009-05-04 14:11  

#3  Well, now they tell us, after infecting a whopping 0.000015% of the planet.
Posted by: Zorba Craising6734   2009-05-04 13:17  

#2  Oh shit, where do I start.

1 the flu has been genetically "Sequenced" That means they took the genes apart, and they know it is NOT anything but plain old Swine flu.

2. But new cases of the virus, which mixes swine, avian and human flu strains, still were being tracked across the world,,

NO, HELL NO What's going around the world is the same old swine flu, mainly from infected folks recently from Mexico with few or no "Spontaneous' out breaks.

Whoever wrote this must belong to the MSM, "Create panic to sell papers" school
Posted by: Redneck Jim   2009-05-04 12:10  

#1  Thought we'd never get through it. If I had to sit through anymore TV new stories about the swine flu I was afraid I was gonna blow a fuse.
Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305   2009-05-04 12:06  

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