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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Swine Flu Could Become More Dangerous
2009-04-27
The current strain doesn't seem to be particularly dangerous, but H1N1 is notorious for mutating quickly, so it could indeed become a threat.
The swine flu virus that has killed more than 80 people in Mexico may mutate into a "more dangerous" strain, the World Health Organisation has warned. "It's quite possible for this virus to evolve... when viruses evolve, clearly they can become more dangerous to people," said Keiji Fukuda, of the global health watchdog.

Mr Fukuda also called for international vigilance as health experts wait to see whether the virus will turn into a worldwide pandemic.

Over 1,300 people are now thought to have contracted the virulent H1N1 swine influenza after it mutated into a form that spreads from human to human.

The Mayor of New York has confirmed that eight school children are suffering mild symptoms after becoming infected. And there have been at least 12 other confirmed cases in Texas, Ohio, California and Kansas.

The White House has declared a public health emergency but told the public "not to panic".
If they say that, then it's a perfect time to panic ...
Sky US correspondent Greg Milam said: "It's important to realise that those affected have only had mild symptoms, and all have recovered or are recovering. But the authorities do believe that this outbreak will get worse."

Canada has become the third country to confirm human cases of swine flu with six people falling ill in Nova Scotia and British Columbia. Elsewhere in the world, suspected cases have been reported in France, Spain, Israel, New Zealand and the UK. In France, two people who had returned from Mexico with fevers are being monitored in regions near the port cities of Bordeaux and Marseille.

A 26-year-old Israeli man has also been admitted to hospital after returning from a trip to Mexico with flu-like symptoms.

In Auckland, 10 school children have tested positive for influenza after returning from Mexico. In the UK, two people have been admitted to a hospital in Scotland after returning from Mexico last week. They are said to have mild flu-like symptoms but their condition is not causing concern.

Mexican City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said two more people have died of the virus, taking the death toll to 83.

All schools have been shut in Mexico City, the surrounding area and the central state of San Luis Potosi until May 6.

The WHO says it has a stockpile of the antiviral Tamiflu, which has proven effective against the virus, and is preparing a vaccine if needed.

The H1N1 strain of swine flu is usually only seen in pigs - but in humans can cause symptoms including fever and fatigue. The WHO says there is "zero evidence" that people are getting infected with the virus from exposure to pigmeat or pigs.

However, many countries say they are stepping up checks on pork imports from the region. Russia has banned meat imports from Mexico as well as from several US states and Central American countries.
Posted by:Steve White

#13  One other thing - the genes of this one shows elements of Influenza A (human) H1 (swine) and H5 (avian). Its a heck of a combo.
Posted by: OldSpook   2009-04-27 23:34  

#12  Thank you, Professor phil_b. Rantburg U rocks!!!
Posted by: trailing wife   2009-04-27 22:06  

#11  The question is: how does a flu virus define improved fitness?

The thing about RNA viruses is replication (copying) is very error prone compared to a DNA bacteria. So in a single infected human there will be many thousands(?) of genetic variants of the virus.

99.9999% of these variants will have worse fitness and die out in a short time.

Its the 0.0001% that have some, however slight, advantage that will allow it to spread. And so the process continues in the next infected individual.

Eventually the virus hits the evolutionary jackpot and gets a variant that spreads easily.

The flu is much better at this than other viruses for reasons we don't understand. Although, it's likely due to many variants circulating at the same time with high frequency of co-infection and swapping of genetic material to create 'hybrids'.
Posted by: phil_b   2009-04-27 21:14  

#10  CNN > Repor described the new SWINE FLU outbreak in US-Mexico as a HYBRID OF HUMAN, AVIAN, + OTHER SWINE FLU viruses.

VARIOUS NETTERS > believe MEXICO OUTBREAK may be NON-NATURAL BIO-ENGINEERED SWINE FLU [IOW, BIOWAR = BIO-TERRORISM]???

Posted by: JosephMendiola   2009-04-27 19:39  

#9  de sky iz fallin
Posted by: chiknLitle   2009-04-27 15:19  

#8  According to the reporters on CNBC this morning, we are actually at the end of the flu season, which implies that there have been a great many unreported cases over the past months. Mexico does not have a standardized reporting system like the U.S., so it's difficult to find out what happened before the first reported cases on April 13th, I believe it was.

Mutate as in change. Evolution chooses among the changes to allow preferential survival of the most fit. The question is: how does a flu virus define improved fitness? Silent spread with survival of those infected, or virulence with more virii per dead body? My knowledge of this area is meager, but what I think I know is that the most effective viruses prefer silent spread... and that it takes a while to select for that. And example of a silent virus is Eppstein-Barr, with which some 70% of the U.S. population is infected -- a smallish percentage getting mononucleosis (the "kissing disease" of adolescents), an even smaller percentage developing long term chronic fatigue, but the majority never even aware they have a new passenger
Posted by: trailing wife   2009-04-27 11:29  

#7  Swine flu could become dangerous to our economy, more than anything. WHO says it cannot be contracted by eating pork yet Russia, China, and Indonesia are banning imports from the US and Mexico. The EU also warned against any non-essential travel to the US and Mexico. I know how disease is spread and why air travel could be key to a pandemic, but I am also a cynic when it comes to the esteemed officials of the UN and the EU, especially with this administration.
Posted by: Thealing Borgia 122   2009-04-27 11:15  

#6  Mexico has a Universal Health Care System. The Swine Flu problem will be over in no time.

SNARK OFF.
Posted by: Besoeker   2009-04-27 09:48  

#5  Given the air pollution in Mexico City and the prevalence of respiratory diseases such as TB, it may be that broader swaths of the Mexican population are vulnerable to complications arising from the virus than in the US.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2009-04-27 09:36  

#4  No, mutate as in 'it makes it sound like we know what the feck we are talking about'.

Viruses evolve very rapidly. A virus can evolve more in an afternoon than bacteria will in a 100 years.
Posted by: phil_b   2009-04-27 08:56  

#3  The swine flu virus that has killed more than 80 people in Mexico may mutate into a "more dangerous" strain, the World Health Organization has warned.

Mutate as in 'evolve', adapt to its environment and environmental changes.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2009-04-27 08:35  

#2  Current numbers are now nearly 1600 in Mexico City, with fatalities approaching 200.

One grain of salt - the 1600 are only the reported cases, which include all the fatalaties and hospitalizations, but not those who weathered it at home and recovered.

So the fatality rate is probably not nearly as high as the numbers above indicate, but the numbers do indicate the Mexcian Flu is very contagious compared to the US strain.
Posted by: OldSpook   2009-04-27 01:22  

#1  I hope everyone has gotten in a stock of non-perishable food, as well as masks and hand sanitizer, batteries and anything else you would have a problem with, if it wasn't available.

I remember the SARS outbreak in Singapore. Many items dissapeared from store shelves in a couple of hours.
Posted by: phil_b   2009-04-27 00:45  

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