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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Russia Deploys the Black Sea Fleet |
| 2009-04-16 |
| Russia has sent an official notification to NATO's general secretary, Hoop Scheffer, proposing that "all upcoming military exercises planned in Georgia should be postponed or canceled." The Black Sea Fleet has now deployed all 22 ships, which is getting some attention in the region because regional news reports have noted the Russian military exercises taking place in the Caucasus since the political turmoil and protests began last week in Georgia. There has been a lot of discussion over the past several days, mostly unverified hearsay and internet chatter, of movement of Russian troops towards the Russian-Georgian border and into Abkhazia as part of those exercises. Those rumors were confirmed today when an EU monitor told Reuters "it had registered Russian reinforcements at the boundaries between Georgian-controlled territory and South Ossetia and Abkhazia." A confidential assessment compiled by EU diplomats in Georgia and seen by Reuters said the Russian reinforcements included tanks, armoured personnel carriers, artillery and "Grad" multiple-rocket launchers. "Thus the situation at the ABL (administrative boundary line) remains in flux and volatile as Russian/South Ossetian forces continue to establish new facts on the ground," said the the assessment, dated April 13. This afternoon, the Eurasia Daily Monitor also noted the chatter in the region, and weighed in on the unfolding events. It is important that the Russian military acknowledges its mobilization and forward deployment of troops and ships. At present, it is impossible to know precisely how many additional army units have been moved within striking distance of Georgian territory. However, the composition of the naval force that disembarked from Sevastopol is not secret, since the Ukrainian authorities must be informed. It seems to be larger than the force that was deployed against Georgia last August. Four large amphibious landing craft left Sevastopol last week, while in August 2008 only two were reportedly deployed to insert a regiment of marines into Abkhazia in the small port of Ochamchira, close to the border with Georgia (Vlast, August 18). The marines were later deployed in the invasion of Western Georgia. The report goes on to note: After the war, Georgia disbanded its navy, handing over its surviving ships to the local coast guard. The Russian naval flotilla lead by "Moskva" will not find any opposition at sea, but the deployment of a large amphibious force formed of thousands of marines armed with heavy weapons on board is a threatening sight. The low capacity narrow roads leading from Russia into Georgia (one into Abkhazia and another leading into South Ossetia) create immense logistical problems in rapidly deploying large military contingents into Georgia if Moscow opts for a "humanitarian intervention" to bring about "regime change." The insertion of a sizable marine force with heavy weapons was used last August to bypass the clogged up overland routes and this could prove important again. The Russian military knew beforehand the exact timing of its pre-arranged invasion and fully controlled the pre-war armed provocations by the South Ossetian forces, whereas in the present crisis the situation is much more volatile. The Jamestown Foundation's Pavel Felgenhauer has a fantastic record when it comes to observing military activity in that region. Just prior to the breakout of hostilities last year, he wrote an article regarding the Russian railroad troops that had completed to connect Russia with Abkhazia. These railroads were used within 10 days of his article to supply the Russian military forces that moved into that territory, thus removing Georgian rule. Last month he noted that with spring melting the snow and ice that prohibits any military activity between Russia and Georgia, Russia's political influence into Georgia was sure to follow. He was right. |
| Posted by:3dc |