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Afghanistan
Afghan: Taliban has 10,000 to 15,000 fighters
2009-02-28
10,000 and 15,000 Taliban fighting inside his country, and the insurgent group is operating across about 17 provinces. Mohammad Hanif Atmar offered a rare estimate of the size of his government's most organized and potent opponent during a visit to Washington. A large delegation of senior Afghan officials was in the U.S. capital this week, along with a delegation from Pakistan.

Both groups were weighing in as the new Obama administration forms a new strategy for the war in Afghanistan and a related policy for Pakistan. Afghan officials say they told their hosts that a new strategy must include better cooperation from Pakistan, where Taliban and other militants have command operations.

Afghan and Pakistani officials met separately this week, as well as in three-way sessions with U.S. hosts. President Barack Obama has named a new envoy to manage an overhaul of U.S. policy toward a region Obama calls the real central front against terrorism.
Posted by:ed

#8  take out the ROE of course
Posted by: rabid whitetail   2009-02-28 16:54  

#7  any idiot can shoot a gun, i would put 100 marines against their 10,000 any ay and bet on the marines anyday
Posted by: rabid whitetail   2009-02-28 16:54  

#6  Anonymoose...I unfortunately believe you are correct. And we do not have 500,000 troops to throw at the place (I am not suggesting that, meerly recalling the peak number circa 1970).

The problem of course is logistics. There is no way to get supplies in other than through Pakistan. Our best bet is to ratchet up the ground troop presence to a level that we are able to maintain some semblance of control (as we are doing now), and accelerate our Predator and Reaper programs to maintain a 24 hour overwatch in the lawless areas...and kill anything that moves...literally. Also, we need to shift as much of our SOF to Afghanistan as we dare to work with the UAVs. And finally we need to focus on defoliating the poppies. I don't care how we do it. Drop "defoliant" soaked 20 dollar bills on the poppies. Whatever. But we have to eliminate the jihadi source of income.

No rocket science here: We will never be able to put enough boots on the ground with the appropriate logistical tail in Afghanistan.
Posted by: anymouse   2009-02-28 13:57  

#5  Besoeker: I'd have to say that Iraq is pretty over, but Afghanistan is the real nightmare. Short of an Iranian invasion, there just isn't any organized opposition in Iraq any more. About the worst that could happen would be a Sunni uprising, but the Sunni know that if they tried that, they would be butchered, then the survivors exiled.

Afghanistan, however, has all the prospects of another Vietnam. If NATO or the US screws up, that 10,000 Taliban could become 100,000, or even 1 million overnight. Afghans become predatory around weakness.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2009-02-28 09:08  

#4  NATO casualties are up year-on-year for both Jan and Feb, so it would appear that the Taliban are once again getting frisky.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2009-02-28 09:05  

#3  Didn't the Taliban take a serious trimming from NATO summer before last?

As I recall, they were losing close to a brigade's worth of effectives per month during the summer of 2007.
Posted by: badanov   2009-02-28 07:49  

#2  Barry is in quite a pickle with Iraq. It is a very, very fragile situation which if not handled correctly, as the Generals have advised, could rapidly and revert to chaos. If Barry squanders the "W" Surge dividend he'll be blamed for letting victory slip away, the halo comes off and he's an instant loser. If the situation in Iraq begins to worsen and he has initiate an "O" Surge from CONUS, the halo is off again and he's a loser. His only real course of action is to "train & maintain" in Iraq (see original Petraeus & Bush plan) and keep a force and enough regional power both air and ground close enough to respond if needed. Read that Afghanistan. The strategy in Afghanistan ie, going after the Warzistan and border sancuaries will eventual prevail, but it will be a long and drawn out affair. Like Musharoff, Karzai must go. New, more aggressive leadership is needed. Just my two cents worth.
Posted by: Besoeker   2009-02-28 07:29  

#1  a region Obama calls the real central front against terrorism.

Well sure, now that former president Bush took care of the Iraqi front. And what about that other central front that is Iran? All those centers can be so confusing!
Posted by: trailing wife   2009-02-28 06:30  

00:01