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| Home Front Economy |
| RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process |
| 2009-02-17 |
| I do not know what is going on here, and I don't think I want to. Someone, apparently someone in Asia, wants dollars. A LOT of dollars. There is a forced-liquidation event underway that is massive, it is against all asset classes and it is spreading. It originated at approximately 7:15 CT this evening and originated out of Asia somewhere. All of the primary currency crosses got hit at once - Euro, Pound, Yen - all weakened dramatically against the dollar and it is still going on. The Asian stock markets got walloped at the same time in coordinated waves of forced selling. At the same time the US futures markets got nailed as well, down some six handles on the /ES in a near-vertical drop. While this sounds "not that big" to move these markets in a coordinated fashion like this is a trillion-dollar enterprise - this is not some small company that went bankrupt, or even a large company. There is no news coverage at the present time identifying the source of this but it is not small and contrary to some reports it is not "automatic selling"; this is forced liquidation. Folks, if this translates into Eastern Europe where there are severe instabilities already brewing literally everything in the financial world could come apart "all at once." The worse news is that if this happens Bernanke will have killed us (in the US) by extending those swap lines all over the planet during the last six months. These will become utterly uncollectable and they are massive, in the many hundreds of billions of dollars. To those who are reading this, I hope if you're in the markets you are prepared for extreme levels of violence. You must expect that the authorities will try to arrest the destruction if they are able, but you must also be prepared for the possibility that we have reached a "critical mass" point beyond which "duck and cover" is the only winning strategy. Unfortunately. I hope I'm wrong; this is going to be a long night. |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #22 yes |
| Posted by: Frank G 2009-02-17 21:00 |
| #21 Also, do blog entries go in Opinion? |
| Posted by: Mike N. 2009-02-17 20:46 |
| #20 Does this mean retailers won't take checks or plastic anymore? |
| Posted by: Mike N. 2009-02-17 20:40 |
| #19 tw, regarding the "ick" factor....they never went away completely. There's still a few nutz here in the states who do the "reusable butt wipes" thing because they think it's "environmentally friendly". (I never let them anywhere near my washing machine, nor do I use theirs, for obvious reasons...) |
| Posted by: Cornsilk Blondie 2009-02-17 20:10 |
| #18 Lest we fergit, TOPIX [old] > THE RISE OF THE REST [of the World], notsomuch a per se decline or rollback? is US geopol power-influence. * MSM-NET > Many Netters + MilPol-Geopol Perts, etc. still believe that POTUS OBAMA + ADMIN will end up being a "JIMMY CARTER II", i.e. EXPANSION OF AMER'S ENEMIES EVERYWHERE AS COUPLED WID AMER INACTION = ROLLBACK??? WHAT IS THE ROLE, + ULTIMATE INTENTIONS, FOR THE USA I.E. IS THE USA INTENDED TO PROPAGATE ITS GEOPOL INFLUENCE VERSUS TO BE DESTABILIZED AND DESTROYED??? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2009-02-17 20:06 |
| #17 Where's George Soros, and what has he been up to? Seems he tried this against the Pound not too long ago... |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2009-02-17 16:51 |
| #16 Some excellent trade goods for barter are: cigarettes, TP, toothpaste, soap...etc. We don't think about these things, but in really hard times they are going to become scarce. I had an aunt who passed away a few years back. She was 96 and had obviously lived through the degression. During her estate sale a total of nearly 200 roles of toilet paper were removed from her pantry. Some of the family thought it was hilarious. I did not, and I still don't. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2009-02-17 15:58 |
| #15 Peter Schiff Tells the Saudis How to Crash the US Dollar to LOUD APPLAUSE! WOW! |
| Posted by: tipper 2009-02-17 15:36 |
| #14 Some excellent trade goods for barter are: cigarettes, TP, toothpaste, soap...etc. We don't think about these things, but in really hard times they are going to become scarce. |
| Posted by: Vortigern Churt3205 2009-02-17 13:42 |
| #13 The sponge is a lovely idea, Procopius2k, but what was the level of intestinal parasites and diseases as a result? Short answer: ick! No way!! |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2009-02-17 11:55 |
| #12 T-paper? Here's a pic of a Roman latrine [minus the plaster and graffiti on the walls] with the lads using the standard butt wipe of the times - sponges. Clean and reuse, how green can you get? :) Paging Mike Rowe - we may have a new "Dirty Jobs" episode. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2009-02-17 11:22 |
| #11 Or sixth-graders across the the country can hold bake sales and send the proceeds to the US Treasury. |
| Posted by: mrp 2009-02-17 11:00 |
| #10 I understand your feeling rabid, but afterall, they don't want toilet paper. Maybe we could trade them some female goats? |
| Posted by: AlanC 2009-02-17 10:49 |
| #9 i woyuld rather have the toilet paper than oil, you can always ride a bike |
| Posted by: rabid whitetail 2009-02-17 10:46 |
| #8 But, ES7110, shouldn't you pick a commodity that has value to the oil ticks? |
| Posted by: AlanC 2009-02-17 10:28 |
| #7 make Whiskey currency backing Or at least make it backed by some kind of commodity with actual value. Like toilet paper. |
| Posted by: Eohippus Shaviper7110 2009-02-17 09:57 |
| #6 Perhaps its time to make IP (patents etc) like gold.. Or do like the state of Franklin and make Whiskey currency backing. |
| Posted by: 3dc 2009-02-17 09:17 |
| #5 (and gold of course) There's not enough gold to run or sustain the world economy. Any other commodity [outside of a physical disaster area like Katrina] is presently subjected to downward pressures with raising unemployment and savings. So, were else is the a common unit of transaction that is identifiable across the globe from high end offices to the barter on the street other than the dollar? Remember, you don't have to be faster than the bear, you just have to be faster than anyone else in the group. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2009-02-17 08:31 |
| #4 Moody issued a warning that it might downgrade the debt status of banks with exposure to eastern European currencies and equities. This report triggered a large dump of those currencies vs. the US dollar. This sounds good - flight to safety, US as refuge etc. - except that late last Fall Bernanke extended currency swap capability to quite a few central banks in an attempt to keep liquidity in the market. As a result those countries can, and probably will, insist that we buy their currencies and give them dollars. Since their currencies are not backed by much in the way of economic soundness, it means we've weakened our own position. |
| Posted by: lotp 2009-02-17 08:22 |
| #3 down some six handles on the /ES swap lines Translation, please. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2009-02-17 08:03 |
| #2 Some Euro banks and a number of countries moved significantly closer to bankruptcy today. Everyone is getting out of the Euro and I expect all the rest of the European currencies. Where else to go except the USD? (and gold of course) |
| Posted by: phil_b 2009-02-17 06:02 |
| #1 From a technical standpoint, this was a long time coming. What's your methodology, 'moose? |
| Posted by: Omerenter Henbane5221 2009-02-17 00:43 |
