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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Kimmie shakes up Nork military |
| 2009-02-14 |
| SEOUL, Feb. 12 (Yonhap) -- In a rare extensive military shakeup, North Korea said its leader Kim Jong-il appointed a new defense minister and chief of General Staff, spawning speculations about his intentions as cross-border tension mounts. Unusual in that it was even announced, the reshuffle reported by the state-run media on Wednesday has drawn attention because of the sensitive timing. The new top military brass appeared to be combat savvy and are known to be close confidants to Kim, analysts said. The shakeup should not be overstretched to portend imminent military action, they cautioned, but seems to carry an intended message -- the aging leader is still in firm control of the North's military even after a reported stroke in August, and any important decisions, including missile activities and the naming of his successor, will be his own. Cha Doo-hyeogn, a North Korea specialist with the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, a state-run think tank, said the North Korean leader maintains his absolute power by regularly changing the top military leaders. "Kim promotes the military as the nation's top priority, but he knows the danger of it. Characteristic of a regime controlled by one man, the leader does not give all the power to a single person," Cha said. "With the shakeup, Kim Jong-il is showing that he is powerful and is the only one who can decide on military action and a successor." North Korean reports gave no background information, but the new appointees are believed to be veteran soldiers credited for their combat strategies than for their political connections, analysts said. Kim Yong-chun, new minister of the People's Armed Forces of the National Defense Commission, equivalent to South Korea's defense minister, orchestrated the North's military when its navy clashed with South Korea along the volatile western sea border in 1999 and 2002, leaving scores of soldiers dead or wounded on both sides. The western sea border was unilaterally drawn by the U.N. Command following the Korean War, and Pyongyang insists it should be redrawn farther south. Little is known about another new official, Ri Yong-ho, the new chief of the Korean People's Army General Staff, the counterpart to Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff. Ri's predecessor issued a warning on Jan. 17 that the North's military will take an "all-out confrontational posture" against South Korea if Seoul adheres to its hardline policy. Seoul analysts cautioned against reading too much into the shakeup. Paik Hak-soon of the Sejong Institute, an independent think tank, said while the timing is noteworthy the North Korean leader customarily changes officials to keep their power in check. Who takes the posts is not so important, as the military is controlled by the party in the North Korean system," he said. "It would be extreme to connect this to a missile decision or a border clash." Seoul officials described North Korea's announcement of the shakeup as "unusual." It may be an internal message aimed at drawing citizens' attention to the heightened tension with South Korea, said Lee Sang-min, an official with the Unification Ministry in charge of North Korean politics. More reshuffles may follow as North Korea holds |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #8 Except for the ROK and Japan and the fact that China doesn't want to rile them up that much. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2009-02-14 20:51 |
| #7 "Their only hope would be that Obama is such a coward that he won't have the stomach to get involved." So they've actually got a pretty good chance, cp? |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2009-02-14 20:47 |
| #6 The only hope the NorKs would have is to deploy more targets than we can shoot. Considering that we are going to clobber anything that is moving, and we aren't going to present them with any targets to shoot back at. We would, I assume, hammer them with stand-off weapons that are extremely accurate, possibly with additional targeting provided by drones that would be nearly impossible to see, let alone hit. They have a military that is basically 1960's and 1970's technology. They are going to get hammered but good and not able to hit back at what is hitting them. Their first response once their attrition rate gets too high is to simply stay still and try not to use the radio. At that point the advance stops and we have, for all practical purposes won. If they can't move, can't communicate, and don't have anything to shoot at, they won't be a very effective fighting force. Their only hope would be that Obama is such a coward that he won't have the stomach to get involved. |
| Posted by: crosspatch 2009-02-14 20:24 |
| #5 Any extended campaign would assume Nork control of the air and that is just not happening : the Norks are lucky to get 150 hours a year in the air, they are short on spares for all aircraft, and the South Koreans have a well-integrated air defense system with Nike Hercules, Patriot, Stinger, and other missile systems. Also, the SKAF has modern fighters with modern missiles, and fly the Western standard of hours in their aircraft. Another consideration for the Norks is just how many of their mortars and cannons will be functional once they start their super barrage : Nork Quality Assurance is not very high, and a 120mm mortar detonating in its tube eliminates that crew and weapon. |
| Posted by: Shieldwolf 2009-02-14 20:02 |
| #4 They have a week of ammo and food they can carry on their back (integral supply). They have 2 weeks rations, plus whatever they can loot. They have about 2 week of ammo and POL in terms of transport-resupply So a 3 week campaign. THen the Norks collapse. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2009-02-14 11:20 |
| #3 "I'd like 200,000 Big Macs, 100,000 large fries, and 100,000 large |
| Posted by: Frank G 2009-02-14 11:17 |
| #2 i'm just waiting for someone too off Kim, and no i don't think they would last past the first Mc Donalds |
| Posted by: rabid whitetail 2009-02-14 10:04 |
| #1 I don't know what to think of this article. North Korea hasn't been involved in a military operation in 50 years. They might have all kinds of "strategies" but they are all untested. Does anyone really believe the NorKs could actually feed and fuel an army in the field for any significant period of time? I believe the country would fall over under the weight of a complete mobilization. |
| Posted by: crosspatch 2009-02-14 01:16 |