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Home Front: Politix
Republicans Trail Obama Dems By One Point in Poll--Anti-Stimulus Push Is Working
2009-02-12
Astonishing news on the generic ballot question. Pollster Scott Rasmussen reports that Democrats are currently ahead of Republicans by only 40 percent to 39 percent. Given that this generic ballot question over the years has tended to understate Republicans' performances in actual elections, one gathers that if the 2010 election for House seats were held today, Republicans would win or come close to winning a majority of seats--which is to say, they would gain about 40 seats. By way of comparison, they gained 52 seats when they won their majority in 1994.

This result may just be a momentary blip, which will pass away as quickly as it appeared, and we are a long, long, long way from the November 2010 elections. But if I were a Democratic member of Congress in even a marginally marginal district, I would be just a little bit worried. And if I were a conservative cheerleader against the Obama/Pelosi stimulus package, I would be concentrating less of my fire against the three Republicans who supported the Senate version and more on Democratic members of the House and (at least those who are up for reelection in 2010) the Senate.
Any Republican in the House who survived 2008 isn't going to be worried about 2010. The Pubs know that Bambi isn't going to get his army of followers mobilized for a mid-term. Even if the economy doesn't tank they should pick up 20 to 30 seats and that puts them in range for 2012. The problem is the Senate, where pick-ups look to be few, if any.
Posted by:tipper

#3  But if I were a Democratic member of Congress in even a marginally marginal district, I would be just a little bit worried.

Hence the ad campaign. Watched big monday you know why the baseball question was asked during the press conference, gave P.O. face time every commercial. The pressure is working don't give up; its how Mizz beat KU in the end (ugh).
Posted by: swksvolFF   2009-02-12 17:40  

#2  Wait till the interest rates begin to climb and The One starts whittling away at Social Security, Medicare, and pensions.
Posted by: Besoeker   2009-02-12 16:58  

#1  Tipper, as good as this news might be, I don't think the Repubs can draw an easy breath just yet.

How can I say that? It's simple. You'll know when the Obamanauts and Dems in general feel that they are in real trouble in their internal polling when they start accusing every (and I mean EVERY) critic of their policies as being motivated by racism.

That hasn't happened yet. When it does, it'll be time for R'burgers to rejoice, because you'll be certain that they are desperate enough to use the nuke.

The Dems may be dusted up, perhaps worse than they think, but not enough that they are worried.
Posted by: no mo uro   2009-02-12 16:11  

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