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| Macroeconomics 'Experts' Apply Astrology, Not Science |
| 2009-02-03 |
| Posted by:tipper |
| #3 procopius, you Greek, your writing has strange letters in it? what’s It’s Etc. |
| Posted by: Rednek Jim 2009-02-03 14:29 |
| #2 An economy like our own has never existed in human history. There have been largely agrarian economies and, since the 19th century, industrial economies. Both of which are simplistic by any comparison to what’s happening now. Therefore modeling is not and can not be a science. There is no history. It’s happening right now. It’s a SWAG at best. It’s a product of literally millions of players, input, and outputs, each with its own agenda and objectives. It’s a beast in and of itself. All you can do is ride beast. Sometimes you can prod or encourage the beast in a desired direction. However, when the beast gets its own mind, it can eat you alive. Beast riding is an art not a science. There are those who think they can tame the beast, but have shown that they only kill its spirit and thus the beast as well, leaving no one the ability to ride it. However, since the beast is largely composed of humans, the successful principles laid out for human behavior have the closest application to the economy. Ignore those principles because you believe you’re smarter than those before you, or because you wish they weren’t so, only brings distress and failure in the end. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2009-02-03 08:57 |
| #1 I had this joke from one of Azimov's Azazel stories. POTUS asks his science advisor "How much is 2 + 2?": "Four, Mr President." Asks the head of the US Census Bureau: "4 +/- 0.0756 Mr President". Asks his chief economic advisor: "How much would you like it to be, Mr President?". |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2009-02-03 08:36 |