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Africa North
Al Qaeda bungled unconvential weapon experiment
2009-01-20
in Algeria. Fancy that ....
An al Qaeda affiliate in Algeria closed a base earlier this month after an experiment with unconventional weapons went awry, a senior U.S. intelligence official said Monday.
We had this story yesterday, a bit more sensationalized, from the Sun...
The official, who spoke on the condition he not be named because of the sensitive nature of the issue, said he could not confirm press reports that the accident killed at least 40 al Qaeda operatives, but he said the mishap led the militant group to shut down a base in the mountains of Tizi Ouzou province in eastern Algeria.

He said authorities in the first week of January intercepted an urgent communication between the leadership of al Qaeda in the Land of the Maghreb (AQIM) and al Qaeda's leadership in the tribal region of Pakistan on the border with Afghanistan. The communication suggested that an area sealed to prevent leakage of a biological or chemical substance had been breached, according to the official.

"We don't know if this is biological or chemical," the official said.

The story was first reported by the British tabloid the Sun, which said the al Qaeda operatives died after being infected with a strain of bubonic plague, the disease that killed a third of Europe's population in the 14th century. But the intelligence official dismissed that claim.

AQIM, according to U.S. intelligence estimates, maintains about a dozen bases in Algeria, where the group has waged a terrorist campaign against government forces and civilians. In 2006, the group claimed responsibility for an attack on foreign contractors. In 2007, the group said it bombed U.N. headquarters in Algiers, an attack that killed 41 people.

Al Qaeda is believed by U.S. and Western experts to have been pursuing biological weapons since at least the late 1990s. A 2005 report on unconventional weapons drafted by a commission led by former Sen. Charles Robb, Virginia Democrat, and federal appeals court Judge Laurence Silberman concluded that al Qaeda's biological weapons program "was extensive, well organized and operated two years before the Sept. 11" terror attacks in the U.S.

Another report from the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation, released in December, warned that "terrorists are more likely to be able to obtain and use a biological weapon than a nuclear weapon."

British authorities in January 2003 arrested seven men they accused of producing a poison from castor beans known as ricin. British officials said one of the suspects had visited an al Qaeda training camp. In the investigation into the case, British authorities found an undated al Qaeda manual on assassinations with a recipe for making the poison.

The late leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab Zarqawi, was suspected of developing ricin in northern Iraq. Then-Secretary of State Colin L. Powell referred to the poison in his presentation to the U.N. Security Council in February 2003 that sought to lay the groundwork for the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

Roger Cressey, a former senior counterterrorism official at the National Security Council under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, told The Washington Times that al Qaeda has had an interest in acquiring a poisons capability since the late 1990s.

"This is something that al Qaeda still aspires to do, and the infrastructure to develop it does not have to be that sophisticated," he said.

Mr. Cressey added that he also is concerned about al Qaeda in the Land of the Maghreb, which refers to the North African countries of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia.

"Al Qaeda in the Maghreb is probably the most operationally capable affiliate in the organization right now," he said.

Posted by:

#17  The Soviets were in Algeria in the 80s and were known to be into developing smallpox as a bio weapon. It wouldn't be surprising if Al Q either bought or stumbled into a supply.

Given the conditions in E. Algeria and the type of medicine Al Q uses, an outbreak would probably infect most people exposed, kill most of the people it infects (within a fairly short time) and disfigure the ones that survive.

They would reasonably try to seal off that group of Al Q to prevent it from wiping out other groups.
Posted by: mhw   2009-01-20 20:46  

#16  The base may had been shut down, but it remains to be seen how well it has been sealed agz the spread of plague.

PRAGMATICALLY, AFRICA AS A STRATEGIC FRONT IS NEXT ON THE JIHADIST PRIORITY LIST AFTER MAINLAND ASIA [Nuclear Russia, China, India]. Given the historical animosities or disdain between semitic Muslims versus their fellow black African Muslim brothers, its possib that iff AQ can't contain the spread of plague they may try to use its spread to as a weapon in depopulating vast swathes of black Africa [Muslim or non-Muslim].
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2009-01-20 19:12  

#15  AlanC,

All IÂ’m saying is the Human Incubator scenario makes for better fiction then a practical terror tactic. Again, the host must be in an advanced stage of infection to be contagious and their targets must be in close proximity for an extended period of time. Whether itÂ’s Cairo or Copenhagen, airport security is trained to bar seriously ill passengers from boarding intercontinental flights. And itÂ’s doubtful that many people would share a park bench for very long with someone exhibiting acute symptoms of hemorrhagic fever.
Posted by: DepotGuy   2009-01-20 15:19  

#14  It seems to me that it wasn't anything like a communicable disease. It seems more like a sudden event and the rest ran away without fear of spreading something. It suggests chemical to me. Also, they quarantined the place. If they did that, it suggests that the hazard would not disperse within a short time. Ricin again?
Posted by: gorb   2009-01-20 13:58  

#13  Depot Guy,

Do you really think that foreign security would stop anyone that had no symptoms flying out of Dubai or Riyadh or Cairo for example?

Just train them to shoot themselves up in the men's room just before takeoff and then when they get to Europe they just hang around public incubators like train stations or bus terminals. It doesn't take a huge epidemic to sow panic.
Posted by: AlanC   2009-01-20 13:37  

#12  Â“Â…what's to stop a deliberately infected set of jihadis boarding planes to Europe of the US just after they are infected?”

Hopefully, a conventional (and well trained) security apparatus will thwart the “jihadis” from boarding the plane in the first place. For the human host (On a trans-Atlantic flight) scenario to be effective it couldn't be "just after they are infected". The most virulent pathogens must be fully incubated in order to be contagious and even then others must be close proximity for an extended period of time. A simple one time cough or sneeze isn’t enough to spread the infection. Again, hopefully, once the human host begins to display the tell tale symptoms of an advanced infection (and all those lesions and snot ain’t pretty) someone will recognize the need for quarantine.
Posted by: DepotGuy   2009-01-20 12:37  

#11  Just a wild guess, but there might be something of a shortage of Biosafety Level 3 & 4 lab facilities in the neighborhood.

Q: What kinds of organisms are included under Biosafety Levels 3 and 4?

Biosafety Level 3 includes a wide spectrum of viruses, bacteria, and fungal agents. Bacterial agents include: tularaemia, pulmonary and nonpulmonary tuberculosis, glanders, melioidosis, typhoid fever, paratyphoid fever, plague (bubonic, pneumonic, and septicaemic), Q fever, typhus (scrub and epidemic), and Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever. Viral agents include over 170 arboroviruses such as West Nile, yellow fever, and various forms of encephalitis (i.e. Dengue fever and Hantavirus), lymphocytic choriomeningitis (LCM) (neurotrophic strains), Hepatitis B and C, HIV, and Rift Valley fever. Fungal agents in BSL3 include: Coccidioides immitis (which causes pulmonary disease), pulmonary histoplasmosis, and North American Blastomycosis.

Biosafety Level 4 covers a smaller group of pathogens that pose a “high risk of exposure and infection to personnel, the community, and the environment.” These include a number of arenaviruses, filoviruses, and arboroviruses such as: Junin, Marburg, Russian Spring-Summer, Congo-Crimean, hemorrhagic fever, Omsk hemorrhagic fever, Lassa, Machupo, Ebola, Sabia, and Encephalmomyeltis.

The Biosafety Level of each agent is determined by taking several characteristics into consideration. Generally, the BSL3 agents are “indigenous or exotic agents with potential for aerosol transmission, diseases may have serious or lethal consequences.”(2) BSL4 agents are defined as “dangerous/exotic agents which pose high risk of life-threatening disease, aerosol-transmitted lab infections, or related agents with unknown risk of transmission.”(3) Some agents, such as anthrax, are classified at different biosafety levels, depending on the quantity of the agent and the form the agent takes (aerosol, non-migratory, etc).
Posted by: Besoeker   2009-01-20 12:30  

#10  re: posting the story again.

This article included quotes attributed to a senior US intel official. Yesterday lots of RBers speculated it was a bio experiment gone awry, but if it had been plague that might not have been necessary.

Note that the official says it was NOT plague and it WAS the result of a bioweapons experiment gone awry.

Lots of bioterror materials that aren't easily dealt with by a couple days worth of streptomycin, btw.
Posted by: lotp   2009-01-20 12:24  

#9  Anyone playing with plague would have had antibiotics. Plague is very easy to cure with very inexpensive antibiotics. Plague lives naturally in that region. It was probably a natural outbreak. Heck, we have a few people a year in the US that come down with plague each year and it lives naturally in the coastal hills of California and in four corners region of the US.
Posted by: crosspatch   2009-01-20 11:54  

#8  What's to stop them from unknowingly infecting NGO's and others heading back to the west for that matter. Folks that won't cause a second look at security clearing.

The problem is getting a disease that doesn't incapacitate or even show signs for awhile, and hopefully one that is still infectious.
Posted by: rjschwarz   2009-01-20 11:41  

#7  Since they're so big on suicide, what's to stop a deliberately infected set of jihadis boarding planes to Europe of the US just after they are infected? A few good coughing spells should do some serious damage through the panic if nothing else.
Posted by: AlanC   2009-01-20 10:39  

#6  Either way, terrorist scum dying in a very slow, painful and terrifying manner always makes me happy.
Posted by: DarthVader   2009-01-20 10:24  

#5  "Terrorists are more likely to be able to obtain and use a biological weapon than a nuclear weapon."

Both are “Low probability – High Consequence” threats. However both nuclear and biological threats are indeed possible. Either way, the likelihood of an established Terrorist becoming a Microbiologist is much less plausible then an established Microbiologist becoming a Terrorist.
Posted by: DepotGuy   2009-01-20 10:11  

#4  Well, if it is determined to have been a bio-weapons
lab, the New York Times will say this is AQ's response to the coalitions use of "disproportionate force".
Posted by: HammerHead   2009-01-20 09:57  

#3  Occam's razor suggest that this was just being unlucky instead of anything intentional on their part. Plague is an odd disease, because unlike most epidemics, it seems to increase in infectiousness and virulence until it burns itself out.

It usually begins with body lice, the only human louse that acts as a disease vector (not head or pubic lice), and resides much of the time in clothing, or in rats. In this case, rural Algeria is not the best environment for rats, so plague is not endemic.

Likely, a traveling al-Qaeda showed up already infested with lice, got sick and died, so the lice migrated to other hosts. One of these hosts developed the pulmonary form, spread by coughing, which can kill in a few hours, even before pneumonia sets in.

The increasing virulence worked against the plague from that point, as it wiped out the camp before most of them could take off, taking the disease with them, or not being infected in the first place.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2009-01-20 09:06  

#2  Yes, "bungled" possibly. They could have also been test volunteers, either witting or... unwitting. I'll hold off on popping that celebratory bottle of Heidsieck.
Posted by: Besoeker   2009-01-20 08:42  

#1  I sense the vengeful hand of a righteous God in all this. A finger on the "SMITE" key of His PC, anyway.
Posted by: Mike   2009-01-20 08:33  

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