#4 Israel has been trying to give away the Palestinian territories for years. First to the Palestinians themselves -- the Oslo accord, that withdrawal in 2005 from Gaza -- and also by trying to force Egypt to take up their duties as border guardian.
The PA/PLO-Fatah is not going to be able to take over the Gaza Strip, for the same reason they lost it to Hamas before: they are literally not members of the tribe. Egypt wants nothing to do with 1.5 million tunnel-mad, homicidal maniac, welfare queens, even if they could be the ones to skim off the UN largess.* As for Jordan, the last time they owned the West Bank, Arafat nearly took over both sides of the river. Abbas has no such ability, but who's to say how soon the PLO will birth another such charismatic horror?
On the other hand, last night I saw an article (which I can't find again, naturally) elaborating on the theme that the Arabs are concerned that Israel has finally gone mad, which will do much to re-establish Israel's deterrence ability. I think the leak that Israel was ready to destroy Iran's nuclear program last month will add to that -- does anyone think President Obama will have the same influence over Israel as President Bush, especially if Likud forms the new government in February? And note that despite Hizb'allah's big words, they haven't done anything except retreat from their border with Israel since Operation Cast Lead began, even though they're armed with all that wonderful new Iranian weaponry and training. Even the shooting over the Syrian border was clearly a guard relieving his nerves rather than anything concrete. I would love to see Israel jets buzz President Assad's palace again, this time dropping a few paint bombs for emphasis.
*The Sandmonkey blogged about this the other day. He is reasonably pro-Israel, but absorption is not a solution he is willing to accept under any terms. |