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India-Pakistan
Descent into chaos?
2008-12-13
By Najam Sethi

US Senator John McCain is the fourth top American official to descend on Islamabad in one week on the heels of Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman US Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, Miss Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, and Mr Richard Boucher, US assistant secretary of state for South Asia. Their joint message is that there is "incontrovertible" evidence of the "definite involvement" of Pakistan-based jihadi groups in general and the Lashkar-e-Tayba in particular in the terrorist attack on Mumbai.
The sole surviving hard boy is a Pak. His Mom and Dad live in Pakistain. He was a member of LeT and LeT -- at least -- trained him and sent him on his way with the help of parts of the Pak navy, whether officially or unofficially. Other than that there's not much to tie Pak to the attacks except for the other nine turbans, who're now beyond all cares and woe so they can't be made to blab.
If the government of Pakistan does not take "credible action" against the actors involved, says Senator McCain, India will be constrained to lash out with the implicit "understanding" of the international community. Apparently, the Indians and Americans will not be satisfied by the sort of "sham action" taken by General Pervez Musharraf after the jihadi attack on the Indian parliament in December 2001 when scores of workers and activists of hard-line religious parties and groups were hauled up in a great public show of "will" by the state and then quietly released over a period of months. "The cat and mouse game played by Pakistan and America during the Musharraf-Bush years won't work any more", said Senator McCain.

This statement puts paid to the position adopted by President Zardari that no such credible evidence has been shown to Pakistan so far. What he means is that the government of Pakistan is not willing or able to act against the non-state actors identified by New Delhi and Washington. Unfortunately, however, Pakistan's position is weak for several reasons. First, many local jihadi and sectarian groups make no secret of their continuing hostility towards "Hindu India". Indeed, some flaunt it openly in their magazines, pamphlets and public sermons and declarations. For example, Masood Azhar, the leader of the Jaish-e-Mohammad, actually took credit publicly for the attack on the Indian parliament in 2001 until he was told by his agency handlers to shut up and disappear.

Second, President Zardari's recent statement that "non-state actors want a war between Pakistan and India" is an admission of culpability since most non-state actors of repute in the region are based in Pakistan in pursuit of the Pakistani military's national security objectives in the region.

Third, the contradictory position adopted by Pakistanis on the issue of "Islamist terrorism" is evidence of guilt in the eyes of the world. For instance, we cannot say that neo-con America carried out the 9/11 attacks in order to create a pretext to attack Iraq and Afghanistan, and also claim in the same breath that "America had it coming" because of its imperialist and unjust policies in the Muslim world. In the case of 9/11, the remarkable thing is that both Osama bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri have proudly and publicly "owned" the attack not once but several times even as most Pakistanis fervently insist that they didn't do it! In the case of India, the incompetence of its police and security services is excuse enough for most Pakistanis to make the contradictory claim that no Pakistani non-state actor was involved because such sophistication and audacity could only have been manufactured internally by the Indian intelligence services in their devious agenda to break up Pakistan. Of course, the Indian media's outraged rush to judgment had many holes in it but this is not reason enough for its Pakistani counterpart to build self-righteous edifices of innocence.

What are the options for Pakistan, India and the US-led international community in the wake of the Mumbai attacks? The options for all except Pakistan are laid down by their democratically elected respective governments. There are two reasons for this.
(1) There are no armed non-state actors there
(2) The military there has no autonomy and obeys the democratically elected civilian government of the day.
Our military IS the state and not just an organ of the state; our military fashions national security policy; and our civilian leaders and regimes can challenge its supremacy only at their own peril, as we saw in the 1990s, and again recently when the Zardari government tried to wrest control of the political wing of the ISI from the military.
But in Pakistan's case, this is not so. Our military IS the state and not just an organ of the state; our military fashions national security policy; and our civilian leaders and regimes can challenge its supremacy only at their own peril, as we saw in the 1990s, and again recently when the Zardari government tried to wrest control of the political wing of the ISI from the military. In the current situation, Pakistan's military doesn't want to hold any non-state actors accountable for the Mumbai attacks and the Zardari government cannot do anything about it, whatever the evidence.

A glimpse into the military's position was recently afforded when un-named military officials told the media that in the event of a war with India the Pakistani army would be withdrawn from the tribal areas and rushed to the eastern front while the "patriotic Taliban" would be welcomed to assist the national effort. This amounts to saying that the "war against terror" in the tribal areas is not Pakistan's war, despite the civilian government's ownership of it as "Pakistan's war".

Therefore concerned Pakistanis should have no illusions about Pakistan's ominous descent into chaos. This is reckless thinking on the part of Pakistan's civil-military leadership. It should be concerned about getting the state to function properly and Pakistanis to prosper instead of showing wounded pride and misplaced self-righteousness. International censure, sanctions and isolation are the first steps on the way to being declared a rogue state and dealt with accordingly.
Posted by:john frum

#9  they will be the left and right hands of Allah to punish you for it!

I personally love the idea that Allah would use the infidel Hindus, Christians and Jews as his intrument to show his Muslim children the error of their ways. But then I'm a big fan of irony.
Posted by: SteveS   2008-12-13 19:17  

#8  We don't have to do anything except tell India that we've no objection whatsoever to them dismantling "the land of the pure" and repairing the mistake of 15 August 1947. If the Indians drive the current inhabitants of that area before them like sheep before a prairie fire and they all move by the millions into Iran, thus drowning that country's infrastructure in a sea of refugees, so much the better. It's a win-win for all the good guys!
Posted by: Jolutch Mussolini7800   2008-12-13 17:22  

#7  TW is back, tanned, rested, and taking no prisoners. Great stuff.
Posted by: Grunter   2008-12-13 14:23  

#6  Let me translate:

Beware, O Pakistanis! O Lions of Islam, take heed! For the kufrs of the West, the Americans, and the kufrs of the East, the Indians, have noted your plots and your practices, and they will be the left and right hands of Allah to punish you for it!

We call ourselves The Land of the Pure, and we arrogate to ourselves the rewards that Mohammed (PBUH) received. But Allah sees that we are not what we claim, and that we deserve not that which we dream of. He will allow the kufr to destroy us, even to the smallest mud-walled compound in the wilds of the tribal territories, do we not give up our arrogant and war-like ways.

Beware and take heed, my brothers! Take heed and beware!
Posted by: trailing wife   2008-12-13 14:10  

#5  "they can't be made to blab"

Unfortunately for Pakistan, they can. All 9 bodies have been identified and all 9 are from Pakistan. 4 are from the same village as Mr. Kasab.

Posted by: Frozen Al   2008-12-13 11:33  

#4  the ISI hit the Snooze button. Don't hold yer breath
Posted by: Frank G   2008-12-13 10:34  

#3  I am still waiting for that 48 hour alarm clock to ring.
Posted by: USN,Ret.   2008-12-13 10:20  

#2  The wonders of Muslim mind.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2008-12-13 06:51  

#1  I'd be staying the hell away from Islamabad or Deli, but that's just me.
Posted by: Besoeker   2008-12-13 06:46  

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