Citigroup Inc. will probably get rescued by the U.S. government after a crisis in confidence erased half its stock-market value in three days, investors and analysts said. | Dare I repeat my previous comments about putting all our financial eggs into a single basket or two? I think my case is now made. |
"There is no question that Citi is in the category of 'too big to fail,'" said Michael Holland, chairman and founder of Holland & Co. in New York, which oversees $4 billion. "There is a commitment from this administration and the next to do what it takes to save Citi."
While Citigroup executives say the company has adequate capital and liquidity to ride out the crisis, its tumbling share price may shake the confidence of creditors, clients and rating agencies. A similar scenario played out at Lehman, when Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld declared the firm was "on the right track" five days before the firm went bankrupt.
"The market may be implying some sort of regulatory intervention," Jason Goldberg, a former Lehman analyst who now works at Barclays Capital in New York, wrote in a note to clients today. "In situations where the government has stepped in, the equity holders have not fared well."
Pandit's Conference Call
Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit told employees today that he doesn't plan to break up the company, aiming to reassure workers as the stock resumed its skid. Citigroup shares dropped 94 cents, or 20 percent, to $3.77 at 4:08 p.m. in New York, giving the company a market value of about $21 billion. The stock pared its loss after the close of official trading, fetching $4.07 as of 4:35 p.m.