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| India-Pakistan |
| Pakistani government forcing tribes to fight Taliban |
| 2008-11-21 |
| D*mn, it's hard to edit Roggio for length. The Taliban continue to ruthlessly attack the Bajaur tribes that are organizing against the extremists as Pakistan's practice of compelling the tribes to fight the Taliban may destabilize the region further. The Salarzai tribal in Bajaur has been hit hard over the past several months. Tribal leaders claim to have raised more than 10,000 fighters to form a lashkar, or tribal militia. The Salarzai have been burning the homes of Taliban members and providing security for the region. The Pakistani military has been battling the Taliban in Bajaur since August. The tribal area is a known command and control hub for al Qaeda's operations in northeastern Afghanistan. The military has relied on airstrikes and artillery barrages to dislodge the Taliban from fortified positions. Pakistan's strategy to counter the Taliban with tribal fighters is flawed in several ways, several US military and intelligence official who wish to remain anonymous told The Long War Journal. The tribal groups are disorganized and often do not want to work in conjunction with the military. But even more troubling, the Pakistani military has forced many the tribes in Bajaur and elsewhere to turn on the Taliban. Bush seems to be telling the Pakistanis the same thing he told the world in 2001 - pick a side, if you are not my ally then you are my enemy. If your enemy is ruthless you cannot sit by and allow the bulk of the population to ride the fence; whether you use force or bribery you have to get their cooperation. Ultimatums to the tribes have occurred beyond Bajaur. In Khyber, the military "sent a notice to local tribal elders in Jamrud warning that in case of a failure to expel Taliban from their areas, they would have to face the consequences under the FCR [Frontier Crimes Regulations]," Daily Times reported. The Frontier Crimes Regulations is a set of antiquated laws dating back to 1848 that govern Pakistan's tribal areas. The law allows the military to practice collective punishment on the tribes if they fail to live up to agreements. US officials interviewed by The Long War Journal say that Pakistan's counterinsurgency strategy is a recipe for disaster. "Pakistan's practice of compelling the tribes is counter to the successful Awakening movement in Iraq which rose up to fight al Qaeda in Anbar province on their own accord," a senior US military officer said. "An "awakening" ultimately has to originate with the people, the tribes. In Pakistan, most of the tribes are ambivalent or supportive to the Taliban, and are hostile to the government." Compelling the tribes to fight may actually sabotage Pakistan's attempts to defeat the Taliban. "Tribal leaders are furious at having their homes leveled in airstrike and massive artillery barrages," a senior US official said. But not furious enough to fight the Talib, nor even to cooperate with the government so less Draconian tactics could be used effectively. "In the long run, Pakistan is alienating the people they are supposed to be protecting. Unless Pakistan is willing to conduct a ruthless, protracted campaign against its own people, like the Russians did in Chechnya, destroying everything and everyone in its path, this will fail," the official said. "And I see no indication Pakistan has the political will to go the way of the Russians in Chechnya." These are not "its own people;" Pakistan cannot survive as a country with such active enemies within its borders. Either it subdues them, whatever it takes, or it carves them off into an independent country - sort of like fighting cancer with chemo or surgery (the soft approach of bribery is more like hospice care - easing the path for the terminal.) The problem for Pakistan with the 'carve off the bad parts' approach is that it won't stop with the NWFP. Of course, that may be inevitable, as Pakistan is a concocted country much like Yugoslavia was. US military officers are stunned at the lack of understanding of counterinsurgency in the Pakistani military after seven years of fighting in the tribal areas. "[The Pakistanis] have learned nothing. They need to turn this around, and fast," a US military officer who was involved with the formation of the Iraqi Awakening said. The officer was concerned these actions would cause the tribes to turn on the government in the long run. The Awakenings worked because the tribes became more disgusted with AQ, less fearful of the Shia central government, AND convinced the central government and the US had the will and means to prevail. These tribes don't even have a past veneer of civilization like the Iraqi tribes did, so Tali/AQ may not seem as offensive. Also unlike Iraq, the tribes aren't afraid of the US leaving and removing restraints on the Pakistan central government. And so far (as was the case for years in Iraq) the tribes are not convinced the government has stronger WILL than the Tali/AQ. "The potential for blowback in the tribal areas and beyond is enormous," said the officer. "We could never have made the Anbar tribes to fight al Qaeda. It was never about guns, money, or power. The Anbar tribes fought for survival. The Pakistani tribes will fight for survival too, but in this case, they likely will see the government as the oppressor." |
| Posted by:Glenmore |
| #7 if the taliban keep attacking the trbes then looks like pakistan shouldn't have too bribe the tribes join or die |
| Posted by: chris 2008-11-21 18:27 |
| #6 Who know what the people in the NWFP think. If this is good intel coming from people who know the 'lay of the land' then I guess it's good. If it's brainstorming from idiots at the pentagon who are trying to duplicate the awakening movement, I think it's screwed....inherently. |
| Posted by: bigjim-ky 2008-11-21 16:55 |
| #5 In fact, from the government's standpoint, the main problem with bribing one border tribe to fight another is that the bribed border tribe gets stronger, while your coffers are emptied, and the state gets weaker. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2008-11-21 13:17 |
| #4 "Pakistan's practice of compelling the tribes is counter to the successful Awakening movement in Iraq which rose up to fight al Qaeda in Anbar province on their own accord," a senior US military officer said. "An "awakening" ultimately has to originate with the people, the tribes. In Pakistan, most of the tribes are ambivalent or supportive to the Taliban, and are hostile to the government." "Of their own accord"? What planet is this guy on? We paid the Iraqi Sunnis to help us fight al Qaeda. Pakistan doesn't have billions of dollars a year to spend paying the tribes to fight al Qaeda. We went the Mr. Nice Guy route because we had to, for PR reasons, and because we were able to afford it, financially. Most countries go the Pakistani route because they're not made of money, and more importantly, because it has worked for thousands of years, way before the expression "counter-insurgency" became a part of the English language (and indeed, way before there was an English language). Getting friendly border tribes to fight unfriendly border tribes isn't some kind of innovation - it's a time-tested tradition. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2008-11-21 13:13 |
| #3 Summary: Afghanistan is not Iraq. The "Awakening" may not occur in Afghanistan as most of the tribes are relatively comfortable having the Taliban and AQ around. Some of our military are thinking "inside the box" since they seem to think the "Awakening" of Iraq is directly applicable to the new situation. I hope Petraeus is not one of them. |
| Posted by: tipover 2008-11-21 11:49 |
| #2 The Awakenings worked because ...the awakeners [in Iraq] are light years less primitive than the troglodytes in the pak tribal areas. |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2008-11-21 11:39 |
| #1 Seems to me that the "pick a side" approach works when you can offer the tribes greater security than the other side. If you can't, it's likely to hasten your own demise. Where does that leave Pakistan's military? |
| Posted by: Richard of Oregon 2008-11-21 10:15 |