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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Iran can make at least one nuclear bomb
2008-11-20
Iran has now produced roughly enough nuclear material to make, with added purification, a single atom bomb, according to nuclear experts analyzing the latest report from global atomic inspectors.
About as I calculated yesterday: 630 kg of 5% enriched uranium works out to about 40 kg of 80% uranium, minus losses in refining and handling.
The figures detailing Iran's progress were contained in a routine update on Wednesday from the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has been conducting inspections of the country's main nuclear plant at Natanz. The report concluded that as of early this month, Iran had made 630 kilograms of low-enriched uranium.

Several experts said that was enough for a bomb, but they cautioned that the milestone was mostly symbolic, because Iran would have to take additional steps. Not only would it have to breach its international agreements and kick out the inspectors, but it would also have to further purify the fuel and put it into a warhead design - a technical advance that Western experts are unsure Iran has yet achieved.

"They clearly have enough material for a bomb," said Richard Garwin, a top nuclear physicist who helped invent the hydrogen bomb and has advised Washington for decades. "They know how to do the enrichment. Whether they know how to design a bomb, well, that's another matter."

Iran insists that it wants only to fuel reactors for nuclear power. But many western nations, led by the United States, suspect that its real goal is to gain the ability to make nuclear weapons.

While some Iranian officials have threatened to bar inspectors in the past, the country has made no such moves, and many experts inside the Bush administration and the IAEA believe it will avoid the risk of attempting "nuclear breakout" until it possessed a larger uranium supply. American intelligence agencies have said Iran could make a bomb between 2009 and 2015.
Posted by:john frum

#5  Ooooo - me likee super-tough tw! ;-p
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut   2008-11-20 22:23  

#4  Iran claimed ages ago to have, if I recall correctly, 80,000 centrifuges spinning to refine uranium.

The election is over. Bomb everything related to Iran's nuclear effort. Bomb the mullahs' homes. Bomb the Revolutionary Guards barracks in the middle of the night. Then bounce the rubble. If this is unwise, then put the blue Star of David on everything; the Israelis are tough -- they'll handle the fall out as they've done when they were the ones who did it.
Posted by: trailing wife   2008-11-20 22:06  

#3  They don't need to design a thing.

The Chinese provided designs to Pakistan (for Uranium and Plutonium implosion type missile warheads). These designs were both fully tested.

The IAEA found a copy in Libya (apparently provided free by AQ Khan when his stolen centrifuge designs are purchased) still wrapped in the plastic bag from his dry cleaners in Karachi.

These included copious notes in Urdu, written by the Chinese, that describe fabrication of each component ("bombs for dummies").

The Pakistanis provided the Chinese with the Uranium enrichment centrifuge designs (stolen from URENCO in the Netherlands by AQ Khan) in exchange for this weapon.

They traded both with North Korea for ballistic missile designs and components.

Iran has bought both the North Korean missile plans and the Pakistani centrifuge plans. Why would they not have obtained the Chinese weapon designs from either?
Posted by: john frum   2008-11-20 17:07  

#2  Just their declared centrifuges have enough capacity for 1 bomb per year. The Iranians are idiots if they don't have several times more than that humming away in tunnels.
Posted by: ed   2008-11-20 16:48  

#1  Gee, think there are any other countries that might have that final puzzle piece for sale?
Posted by: AlanC   2008-11-20 16:45  

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