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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| The Truth About Russia in Georgia (Michael Totten) |
| 2008-08-26 |
| BILISI, GEORGIA – Virtually everyone believes Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili foolishly provoked a Russian invasion on August 7, 2008, when he sent troops into the breakaway district of South Ossetia. “The warfare began Aug. 7 when Georgia launched a barrage targeting South Ossetia,” the Associated Press reported over the weekend in typical fashion. Virtually everyone is wrong. Georgia didn't start it on August 7, nor on any other date. The South Ossetian militia started it on August 6 when its fighters fired on Georgian peacekeepers and Georgian villages with weapons banned by the agreement hammered out between the two sides in 1994. At the same time, the Russian military sent its invasion force bearing down on Georgia from the north side of the Caucasus Mountains on the Russian side of the border through the Roki tunnel and into Georgia. This happened before Saakashvili sent additional troops to South Ossetia and allegedly started the war... "...A key tool that the Soviet Union used to keep its empire together,” Worms said to me, “was pitting ethnic groups against one another. They did this extremely skillfully in the sense that they never generated ethnic wars within their own territory. But when the Soviet Union collapsed it became an essential Russian policy to weaken the states on its periphery by activating the ethnic fuses they planted." “They tried that in a number of countries. They tried it in the Baltic states, but the fuses were defused. Nothing much happened. They tried it in Ukraine. It has not happened yet, but it's getting hotter. They tried it in Moldova. There it worked, and now we have Transnitria. They tried it in Armenia and Azerbaijan and it went beyond their wildest dreams and we ended up with a massive, massive war. And they tried it in two territories in Georgia, which I'll talk about in a minute. They didn't try it in Central Asia because basically all the presidents of the newly independent countries were the former heads of the communist parties and they said we're still following your line, Kremlin, we haven't changed very much.” There's a lot more, read the whole thing. |
| Posted by:Abdominal Snowman |
| #20 I would add that Islamism is a threat, however, it stands on legs of mud. It is the inane PC policies of the West that facilitate its spread. beside oil dependency that finances it. Islamism would be contained quickly without the environment that it could leech from. Without nutrient for it parasitical modus vivendi, it would be relegated to its backwater domiciles. The whole game, though, may change. Seems that Pooty is hell bent to supply Islamists with means, to be applied at an opportune moment. Maybe he thinks he can contain then afer they'd do his biding. If we allow it to happen, ... I don't think I have to paint the picture. |
| Posted by: Spike Uniter 2008-08-26 23:32 |
| #19 And still It was not Russia which attacked the heart of the U.S. Russia is not harmless but it's rational. Islamism is not rational. Islamism plus a few nuclear weapons is a bigger threat than Russia with lots of them. |
| Posted by: European Conservative 2008-08-26 23:23 |
| #18 EC: Russia needs to be watched and contained, but threat number one is Islamism. Actually, before there was a Soviet Union, Imperial Russia was engaged in numerous wars of empire with other European powers, some of whom might have been acting partly in reaction to relentless Russian territorial expansion. The Brits certainly pushed into Afghanistan to prevent the Russians from moving south. The fact is that Russia has thousands of nukes and a military more potent than all the Muslim countries put together. Muslims have always wanted to take over the world. But since the decline of the Ottoman empire, the military profile of the Ummah combined has been more on the order of Pinky and the Brain than Goliath. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2008-08-26 23:15 |
| #17 EC, re ideology... The fact is that the internationalistic imperialistic socialism has been replaced with nationalistic suprematist pan-slavic thuggery. The imperialistic, though, threds both like beads on the same necklace. The methods used are pretty much the same, despite the surface ideology change. Batyushka gossudar Pooty probably thinks he is really smart. In a way, yes, mafioso kinda smart, but he is still perceiving the world through his KGB prism. His concern for regular Russian Ivan is extant only in the sense that if Ivan's goals coincide with his, all is fine. If not, Pooty wins and Ivan looses. In many cases with terminal permanency. No one would probably make much noise ("internal affair apology"), but when the well being of other countries is at stake, the whole stratagem changes. You say don't poke the bear so she does not get mad. I say she is already mad, find the way to contain her. An equivalent of electric fence, as ii were, I suggest. Don't let her get away with mauling chickens or she would think cows are also for taking. |
| Posted by: Spike Uniter 2008-08-26 22:57 |
| #16 We should be careful with equating new Russia with the old Soviet Union. A lot of things have changed. The world is no longer bipolar, we no longer have a confrontation of two ideologies, and Russia, while appearing to have strengthened economically in the last year, continues to be a weak overstretched country with a dwindling non-Muslim and a rising Muslim population, with China setting its hungry eyes on the Siberian resources. Russia may want a lot of things but Putin is not stupid. Russia would certainly want a close union with Belarus and Ukraine, it definitely wants Crimea back, it would like friendly states surrounding its borders. Russia has no interest in occupying "hostile" countries like Georgia or the Baltics. This just saddles them with costly guerrilla wars while ruining the economy. Putin is trying to modernize Russia. He's not a democrat but he knows about the shortfalls of his country. He needs to ween Russia off its dependence on oil and gas sales. Russia produces little else. The oligarchs keep most of their money abroad. Basically its economy looks like one of a Third World Country, only bigger. Russia needs to be watched and contained, but threat number one is Islamism. Pakistan and Iran is a bigger headache right now. Not only for us, but also to Russia. And this is how to avoid a new Cold War nobody needs and nobody would benefit from. |
| Posted by: European Conservative 2008-08-26 22:28 |
| #15 g: Ah yes, Totten---run out of Moderate Muslim stories? Totten's accounts of moderate Muslims are more convincing that gromguru's impression of a moderate Russian. Russians have certainly been responsible more Western deaths than Muslims since the decline of the Ottoman empire in the 17th century. In fact, Russia was directly responsible for WWII via its non-aggression pact with Germany, which gave the Nazis the ability to concentrate their forces on an invasion of the West. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2008-08-26 22:07 |
| #14 Joe, it may be a good action theme for a computer game, but it has no correspondence points with reality. Whatsoever. All facts point to a Kremlin's imperial ambition. |
| Posted by: Spike Uniter 2008-08-26 21:36 |
| #13 Hmmmm In that case NOT secretly and not so secretly arming and empowering Iran might help? |
| Posted by: European Conservative 2008-08-26 21:18 |
| #12 Russia is having to recognize that it time it may not be the Big Enchilada in Non-European Asia. I still hold that RUSSIA COVERTLY BUT DENIABLY WANTS THE US-NATO/EU TO SETUP A POTENT MIL PRESENCE IN ITS FORMER SSRS TO HELP RUSS ISOLATE/CONTAIN FUTURE NUCLEAR IRAN + ISLAMIST RADICALISM [States + Militant-Terr Groups], ITS OWN ANTI-US ALLIES WHICH IT HELPED EMPOWER VV "THE GREAT GAME". *"The Enemy of My Friend is My Friend"??? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-08-26 21:08 |
| #11 I'm afraid that Totten follows the arguments of Georgia a bit too faithfully. The war did not start on August 7th but it escalated on that day, and Georgia is widely to blame for the escalation. That's one thing. Georgia, of course, did not "start" the war on that day, there has ben a low level war simmering and fueled by Russian action for many years. Totten says: "Virtually everyone is wrong. Georgia didn't start it on August 7, nor on any other date. The South Ossetian militia started it on August 6 when its fighters fired on Georgian peacekeepers and Georgian villages with weapons banned by the agreement hammered out between the two sides in 1994." I would not deny that this happened, but this did not start or escalate the war either. On August 1st (often overlooked) Georgian forces shelled Tchinvali with heavy weapons and artillery, causing 3 South Ossetian fatalities. The shelling was not anything like the one done on August 7th but it was a notch up from previous activities. The Russians tried to negotiate with the Georgians and a few hours before the massive shelling of Tchinvali Saakashvili had declared a unilateral ceasefire by radio address. Only hours later the Georgian attack began. Totten claims: "At the same time, the Russian military sent its invasion force bearing down on Georgia from the north side of the Caucasus Mountains on the Russian side of the border through the Roki tunnel and into Georgia. This happened before Saakashvili sent additional troops to South Ossetia and allegedly started the war..." That is what Saakashvili says now to defend his actions. Surprisingly enough he didn't say anything of this on August 8th. The Georgian claim they have satellite intelligence (from whom?) of a Russian invasion taking place through the Roki tunnel. If that is so, that should be quite easy to prove. Troop movements like this are impossible to hide or U.S. intelligence be damned. Where are the photos? And would it not have made a lot more sense to alert the world that Georgia is just being invaded by Russia as we speak, pulling all the world on its side? How was Georgia supposed to stop a Russian invasion anywhere? By shelling Tchinvali? The Russian deputy foreign minister Grigorij Karasin has firmly claimed that such an invasion did not happen before the Georgians had attacked. He should be easily disproved. The Russian chief intermediator Popov claims that he was in contact with the U.S. about the ongoing Georgian troop movements he saw when driving from Tchinvali to Tbilisi on August 7th. He also says that when he met his Georgian counterpart again on August 12th Jakobachvili swore that he had always told him the truth suggesting that he himself must have been kept in the dark by Saakasvili. Bottom line: We still are not told the truth. By both sides. Two questions: 1) If the Georgians had intelligence about a Russian invasion taking place on August 6th why didn't they alert the world? And why don't they make the attempt to prove it? It would certainly exonerate them quite a bit. 2) If the Georgians received wrong intelligence, who fed it to them? Even if the intelligence was wrong it would make sense to present it as this could only help their case. Could it be that the Russians fed them the info? Please bear in mind: I don't question the overall Russian strategy presented by Totten. Russia does want a cordon of willing satellite states at its borders. I don't think they really wanted South Ossetia "back". The real issue is the Crimea where the Black Sea fleet is stationed and which has a majority of Russians. They definitely want Crimea back. And this is going to be the REAL trouble. That's why U.S. naval presence in the Black Sea is a very good thing to discourage them. But I also believe that Putin had a score with Saakashvili to settle. And it's likely that hot blooded Saakashvili went into the trap. |
| Posted by: European Conservative 2008-08-26 20:55 |
| #10 Ah yes, Totten---run out of Moderate Muslim stories? |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2008-08-26 18:34 |
| #9 What NATO units? A serious question, respectfully asked. |
| Posted by: SR-71 2008-08-26 17:32 |
| #8 Train and arm them further. The Ukraine will not be Georgia -they have 150,000 in the active armed forces, and another 1 million in the reserves. Integrate Ukraine into NATO NOW, in an emergency meeting. Station PAtriots there, and bolster them with NATO units. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-26 17:15 |
| #7 On second thought, train the Ukrainians - They're next. |
| Posted by: Woozle Unusosing8053 2008-08-26 16:48 |
| #6 Send the Georgians crates of Javelin missles. And train their army to operate as guerillas, not as peacekeepers (we have been doing the latter). Even small nation like Georgia can bleed russia so bad they will turn and run. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-26 16:21 |
| #5 If they could stop the Russians there, they would be stuck in the tunnel and they couldn't send the rest of their army through. So they did two things. The first thing they did, and it happened at roughly the same time, they tried to get through [South Ossetian capital] Tskhinvali, and that's when everybody says Saakashvili started the war. It wasn't about taking Ossetia back, it was about fighting their way through that town to get onto that road to slow the Russian advance. The second thing they did, they dropped a team of paratroopers to destroy a bridge. They got wiped out, but first they managed to destroy the bridge and about 15 Russian vehicles. (emphasis added) That's the second reference I've read on that drop. There's a story there and it needs to be told. |
| Posted by: mrp 2008-08-26 15:42 |
| #4 How do you top something like that? I thought MaBelle Michelle's speech came pretty close. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2008-08-26 14:37 |
| #3 Say what you will about the Russians, but they are first class liars. They've managed to convince a significant chunk of the black community that the CIA invented AIDS to kill blacks (including the Reverend Wright - Bamm Bamm's |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2008-08-26 14:36 |
| #2 Remember Afghanistan and the Russian folly there? Now, I know that the Georgians are not of the mujahadin ilk but still this seems to me be senseless on Russia's part to stay in Georgia and create these buffers. All it is doing is creating ill will toward them and energizing the western democracies and their eastern european acolytes. If this was to scare the Ukranians and the Finns and the Baltics it is backfiring. If the US is tangled up in Iraq and Afghanistan then how many fronts can the Russians occupy and with what? |
| Posted by: Jack is Back! 2008-08-26 13:35 |
| #1 Excellent article. Interesting to see that Saakashvili didn't start this ball, which was what the MSM was saying. Totten apparently has the correct, well-informed take on what actually happened there, which was premeditated Russian aggression. Well worth the read. |
| Posted by: Jolutch Mussolini7800 2008-08-26 13:10 |