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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| China economy to become world's biggest |
| 2008-07-09 |
| CHINA'S economy will overtake that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by mid century, a study released today by a US research organization concluded. The report by economist Albert Keidel of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said China's rapid growth is driven by domestic demand more than exports, and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into the 21st century. "China's economic performance clearly is no flash in the pan," Mr Keidel said. "Its growth this decade has averaged more than 10 per cent a year and is still going strong in the first half of 2008. Because its success in recent decades has not been export-led but driven by domestic demand, its rapid growth can continue well into the 21st century, unfettered by world market limitation." Mr Keidel said the rise of China to the world's biggest economy will happen regardless of the method of calculation. Under current market-based estimates, China's gross domestic product is about $US3 trillion ($3.14 trillion) compared to $US14 trillion ($14.65 trillion) for the United States. Based on a more controversial purchasing power parity (PPP) measure used by the World Bank and others to correct low labour-cost distortions, he said China's GDP is roughly half of that of the United States. "Despite this low starting point, if China's expansion is anywhere near as fast as the earlier expansion of other East Asian modernizers at a comparable stage of development, the power of compound growth rates means that China's economy will be larger than America's by mid century - no matter how it is converted to dollars," Mr Keidel said. "Indeed, PPP valuation distinctions will diminish and eventually disappear." |
| Posted by:tipper |
| #14 China has shut down factories around Beijing in an effort to cut down on polution for the Olympics. Here in the States hundreds of Wal-mart stores are closing. They're running out of EVERYTHING! Leno |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2008-07-09 18:48 |
| #13 My projections of China's future are guarded, but there are some strong possibilities. First of all, they are going to have to have a humdinger of an economic correction in the short term. But I don't see this as causing widespread political instability. Instead, the public really wants to take it out on local and regional government, not the national government. Second, China is demographically bulging at the seams, and this presents an impressive target to a natural population correction, most likely by a whopper of an epidemic. But if they lose hundreds of millions of people, it will solve much of their economic and development problems. But that presents the third possibility, because such plagues work from the bottom of the demographic pyramid up. Essentially culling the poor and peasant. But the people who remain are going to want to keep their power and wealth, so politics will become very conservative and power more balanced and even. And the best way of doing this is democracy, not out of any sense of freedom or liberty, but efficiency. The freedom and liberty are just side effects of this. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2008-07-09 17:00 |
| #12 if the chinese empire stays together simple math dictates they will be larger...when who know's -- as stated they have many issues to resolve but thier middle class is larger than the american middle class today |
| Posted by: dan 2008-07-09 10:55 |
| #11 Gobi desert as beachfront property... |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2008-07-09 10:47 |
| #10 It won't matter, that same graph also says worldwide temperatures 2035 will average either 30^C and 1/4 of China will be under the ocean. |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2008-07-09 10:40 |
| #9 While we export jobs and buy foreign, China is exporting goods and buying domestic. |
| Posted by: Phatch the Eponymous3231 2008-07-09 09:26 |
| #8 The Greater German Empire Number 2 with a bullet |
| Posted by: .5MT 2008-07-09 07:49 |
| #7 China's businesses have a huge debt and the government banks are writing off nearly 60%. A major economic global slowdown or the US pulling their factories out of China will bring it crashing down. China could do it, but it has a lot of problems to overcome first. Personally, I think with the coming economic troubles, surplus of males and a Xenophobic attitude of the government, China will have civil war in 10 or so years. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2008-07-09 07:48 |
| #6 I thought it was Japan that was going to be Number 1. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2008-07-09 07:10 |
| #5 Why am I reminded of the hockey-stick graph? |
| Posted by: no mo uro 2008-07-09 06:54 |
| #4 Let's not forget, China still has to make the transition to democracy. And history shows that can be a rocky road. The communists stay in power because they deliver economic growth. If the economy runs into trouble, then they will as well. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2008-07-09 03:53 |
| #3 China's headed for a big fall. They've had double-digit growth every year for 30 years, which masks a ton of inefficiencies. |
| Posted by: gromky 2008-07-09 02:05 |
| #2 Any economist worth his salt, will admit that following free market principles will cause a take-off period to ensue. However, one an industrial superstructure is developed, development possibilities become somewhat limited. A fall-off isn't the next stage. The American economy is stable, and development is balanced. China will follow suit, unless politics intervenes. That is unlikely. |
| Posted by: McZoid 2008-07-09 01:45 |
| #1 Don't you love these straight line extrapolations? |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2008-07-09 00:22 |