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| Weather Hanky Panky - Reporting Virtual, Not Actual, Weather |
| 2008-06-15 |
| Today is the first day of the Arizona monsoon season. Don't run outside to check to see if it's sticky and hot. It isn't. Well, not sticky anyway, but temperatures could hit 110 degrees today. This year, the National Weather Service decided to give the monsoon set dates, declaring June 15 to Sept. 30 Arizona monsoon season - and yes, monsoon season is redundant - instead of using the system that marked the start of the season when the dew point reached 55 degrees for three consecutive days. Dew point is a measure of the amount of moisture in the air. A high dew point means it feels muggy. Because the season can bring violent storms and floods, the Weather Service decided to remove the guesswork about the season's start date with the hope people would concentrate more on the season's dangers. "This is when our most violent weather happens," said Tony Haffer of the National Weather Service. The monsoon is defined as a shift in winds. In Arizona, that shift brings moisture from the Gulf of California and the Gulf of Mexico. Haffer predicts that will happen in two or three weeks. Something funny might be going on here. The southwest monsoon is a major indicator of northern hemisphere weather, so giving a fixed date for it is like setting a fixed location for the jet stream. |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #4 not completely unreasonable the E Pacific Hurricane season is May 15-Nov 15 and the Atlantic Hurricane season is June 1 to Dec 1. There are hurricanes present on fewer than 25% of these days and hurricanes occasionally occur outside these boundaries. However, its a useful distinction for planning purposes and other reasons. |
| Posted by: mhw 2008-06-15 19:59 |
| #3 I'd like to weigh in on a parallel. Tornados, yes there are quite a few this year and many which were out of season (why setting dates for severe weather seasons can be inaccurate and dangerous). However, many of these tornados are radar indicated (more so since the weather radar is much improved over just 10 years ago, think atari to x-box for just the stuff we see on TV) and are counted even though there was no confirmation of circulation reaching the ground - when rotation is then officially a tornado. So what you get are hooks indicated by radar and reported as a tornado even though the rotation has not been confirmed or denied touching the ground, sometimes because it is at night, too rainy, or just plain out in the middle of nowhere. If they are going to run stats according to radar indicated tornados then those stats are only as accurate as the timeline which that current radar has been in use. Also, with the improved radar storm spotters are better able to be in a position to spot tornados, increasing spotting capability where 10 years ago there there may have been tornados but they were so far out in the middle of nowhere nobody saw them. You wouldn't know it waking up in the morning and seeing the news, when I know for a fact that some of those little twistee graphics they put up were not tornados; not saying the weather was pleasant but not tornadic in the official sense. |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2008-06-15 15:11 |
| #2 When I lived out there, 'Monsoon Season' was when the swamp cooler ceased to function and you had to turn on the A/C. |
| Posted by: Bobby 2008-06-15 11:40 |
| #1 I'd also like to mention that I live fairly near where the official temperature for Phoenix is measured. In past the most variance in temperature between here and there was 2-3 degrees. However, in the last year, it is consistently reporting high and low temperature variances 8-10 degrees hotter than here. You all might want to start checking actual temperatures vs. "official" temperatures, to see if they are actuals, "adjusted", or based in a model, not reality. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2008-06-15 09:24 |