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| Iraq |
| There's a New Sheriff in Basra |
| 2008-04-02 |
| An article by Nibras Kazimi, Visiting Scholar at the Hudson Institute .... The United Alliance List delegation ... evidently made al-Sadr an offer he couldn’t refuse when they sat down for a friendly chat in Tehran two days ago: the Iraqi state was willing to go all the way in smashing the Sadrist movement — arresting all the leaders and shutting down all the offices — if he didn’t play along with Operation Cavalry Charge and hand over those operatives whose names appear on the wanted lists. See, Maliki went to Basra with a long-ish list of names comprising all those involved in oil smuggling, drug dealing and the various other crimes that have wracked Basra. It just so happens that many of them claim to be Mahdi Army commanders. The Mahdi Army in Basra is only an army in the sense that ‘soldiers’ and ‘cappos’ are rankings in the Cosa Nostra. .... Maliki made the calculation that he can take on these cartels and withstand the wrath of the other affiliated Mafiosi ‘familias’ that got unleashed in other parts of Iraq. The criminal syndicate knows that once Operation Cavalry Charge squashes their sweet set-up in Basra, then other pockets of criminality are going to be next, so that’s why they are going to the mattresses. Well, so far several dozen of these Most Wanted folks have been killed, while tens of others are wounded or in hiding. At least 50 of them are under arrest. The outbreak of violence in places other than Basra was an occasion for the Iraqi Army and police to act on arrest warrants that have been outstanding since 2004, for example, several such dangerous outlaws were taken into custody in Karbala and Hillah. ..... .... today he [Maliki] is perceived as a statesman commanding a strong and motivated army that can impose law and order on once-powerful forces that have run amuck. If that’s not a benchmark of success, then what is? .... Operation Cavalry Charge was a reality warp for all those who’ve internalized the rhetoric that Iraq is a failed state. Instead of being dismissed as a ‘Green Zone politician’, Maliki took his war cabinet to Basra and went all Untouchables on the Al Capones of Iraq’s oil-rich south; plenty of journalists and ‘experts’ simply could not grasp these dramatic changes to the political topography of Iraq. Maliki won, pure and simple. The western media invented the narrative that Maliki was at war with the Sadrist movement, even though no such declaration was ever made. .... Maliki’s approach is piece-meal: he’s taken out the intimidation factor that kept much of the Sadrist sway in place and he’s done that by showing them that they are no armed match for a better-disciplined, better-supplied Iraqi Army with plenty of stamina. The Sadrists are left with some political gains that they’ve accrued from joining the political process, such as government posts and lucrative contracts that they’d be loathe to part with and that’s their collateral for good behavior from now on. .... Now the Sadrist will have to sway voters their way with words and entreaties, rather than threats and drills. Most of the crime cartels are also on notice that the days of the ‘Wild, Wild South’ are over and there’s a new sheriff in town. .... Maliki has promised to keep arresting the names on his list, and he has demonstrated that he’s a man who means what he says. .... The regular folks I’ve been speaking to are so admiring of Maliki. The political elite in Baghdad is freaked out by Maliki’s newfound stature and they must all go back to the drawing boards to recalculate this new dynamic in the political equation. ..... Today, Basra is calm and Iraq’s national army is in charge, not the Mahdi’s. Well done, Mr. Maliki. |
| Posted by:Mike Sylwester |
| #9 IMHO this was a victory for the Iraqi army and what some may be overlooking is the intel received from the captives. I don't think we lost any advantage in Baghdad, many reports say hundreds were killed and captured there also. |
| Posted by: bman 2008-04-02 16:28 |
| #8 ...and don't forget the oil. If Maliki was truly succesful in decapping the shia gangs in Basra, then that's true victory - control of the oil at the point of export. If Sadr gets to parade around a bit in his Baghdad slum, that's more than a fair trade. |
| Posted by: Rex Mundi 2008-04-02 14:07 |
| #7 Well obviously there are still blanks to be filled out but, unless I'm wrong, I think a partial consensus should be that: - the ISF performed far better in this engagement than back in the Mahdi uprise of 2004 - the Iraqi Congress didn't sabatoge the ISF this time, in fact no significant element of the Iraqi political network was working against the govt. - unlike in 2004, al Sadr began the engagement while studying islamic texts in Iran and ended the engagement studying islamic texts in Iran - unlike in 2004, there are few, if any pro Sadr demonstrations in Shiastan |
| Posted by: mhw 2008-04-02 13:39 |
| #6 there were six men of hindustan.... Really, look at Leb. Leb army and UN force in place on the border, not Hezb attacks on Israel in a long time. So Israel won, right? But never got the kidnapped troops back, and Hezb strong as ever in Leb politics. So Israel lost? Or did they, if Hezb can no longer use force to undermine Israeli policies elsewhere? If Sadr has lost ground in Basra, but solidified his position in Sadr city, whats the net net? Depends on how Maliki USES the improvement in Basra, and thats an open question. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2008-04-02 11:42 |
| #5 Sounds like "the Chicago way" to me. That morgue got real busy, didn't it? |
| Posted by: AlanC 2008-04-02 08:43 |
| #4 Let's see how Hilly and B.O. parse this one. |
| Posted by: Bobby 2008-04-02 06:10 |
| #3 The War was, is, and forever shall be, lost. |
| Posted by: Harry Reid 2008-04-02 06:03 |
| #2 Contrast this article with the one directly above. Are they talking about the same situation? |
| Posted by: tipover 2008-04-02 00:44 |
| #1 We will never see this point of view on the MSM while Bush is in office. The news of any victory in Iraq must comply with the left's idealism. |
| Posted by: USMC6743 2008-04-02 00:29 |