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| Science & Technology | |
| The satellite shoot-down and China: doing the math | |
| 2008-02-22 | |
| by our very own Old Spook This was in a comment thread yesterday; I thought it deserved to be an article in its own right. Hope you don't mind that I took the liberty of posting it for you.
Failure rate has been estimated (based on test firings) to be 8 percent for the launcher, 5 percent for the warheads (higher for MIRV bus). So if they popped the entire arsenal, 24 missiles, they are likely to have 2 fail during launch. So lets pretend that those failures are single warhead launchers, the MIRV ones work. thats a total of 18 + (6*4) = 42 RVs. Out of that they lose 2 malfunction. Thats a total of 40 RVs. we have the capacity to launch approximately 20 SM3 per ship, and have 3 of those available (remember, launch prep indications give us up to an hour of alert) Thats 60 launches against 40 warheads. Lest trim it down and say its a 1 per. SM3 have succeeded 15 of 17 targets so far, including early failures. 88 percent of 42 (I assume bad RV will not be visible until terminal phase, so all 42 need to be targets) is 36.9 - round down to 36. That means 4 warheads leak through the initial phase. then Alaska gets involved, 12 missiles, fire 4, 80% = 1 left. Cali gets involved 8 missiles, fire 2. Dead RV. China is neutralized for now. (FYI they're are upgrading to the DF-31 and another missile, all of which will be MIRV'd, and have a full global range - still the total number of RVs will be less than 160 - and we carry enough SM3 in 3 Aegis to deliver 1 shot at each). So yeah, the Chinese are pissed. We just pulled their fangs for a while. | |
| Posted by:Mike |
| #12 ANd just to put things further into focus - people wondering why only 24 ICBMs for china.... Now that a B-2 has crashed in Guam, we are down to just 20 B-2 bombers operationally. 20. Yep. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-02-22 23:29 |
| #11 Good point there. China has to worry about the USA, India doesn't. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2008-02-22 22:10 |
| #10 The 31's are SLBM. ANd truthfully, givne the level of seamanship and engineering in the PLA Navy, I'd be surprised to see the submarine survive launching more than a couple of them. Not that they'd be caught and prosecuted by US ASW, but that they'd cook one off or sink the sub somehow. FYI, the next gen Dong Feng DF-41 is a DF31 with a 3rd stage added. Not in service yet. So the DF-5 (CSS-4) is the only land based ICBM platform they have. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-02-22 22:02 |
| #9 90% of China's nukes (IRBMs, SRBMs and bombers) are aimed at Russia, India or Japan, not the US. The exceptions are US Asian bases. |
| Posted by: ed 2008-02-22 21:02 |
| #8 Here's another thought: If the Russians see China fire all guns at us, what are they likely to do, and to whom? |
| Posted by: Clyde 2008-02-22 20:47 |
| #7 As a reminder, CNN > WOLF BLITZER'S SITUATION ROOM > PENTAGON SAYS ALL SIGNS [post-strike/impact] POINT TO SUCCESS IN SATELLITE HIT/SHOOTDOWN. A good start - hopefully, for the sake of future generations SHADO/SADE can improve upon same ala COMET APOPHIS = Year 2030 and anything, everything BIGGER AND BADDER TO COME, AND WIDOUT BLOWING UP MOONBASE ALPHA, ETC. ["SPACE 1999" show] + GOLD-LUMINOUS BRIT LUNAR BASE BABES ["UFO" show] IN THE PROCESS. The setup/background for the next test of future OWG Planetary Defense will be realized this summer. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-02-22 18:46 |
| #6 The Indian BMD program is another problem for the Chinese. They have had SRBMs based in Tibet aimed at Indian cities. India by contrast has had to develop longer range missiles to reach the main Chinese cities. The Indian exo- and endo- atmospheric interceptors will handle SRBMs and some IRBMs, negating much of the Chinese arsenal. They will have to use their limited supply of DF-31 ICBMs to target India, which they would rather use to target the USA. With India now attempting to develop interceptors capable of hitting ICBMs, the Chinese will have to ramp up production of a missile they have barely tested. They have reportedly had problems casting large diameter solid fuel rocket motors for the DF-31. |
| Posted by: john frum 2008-02-22 17:16 |
| #5 The Chinese are not al lthat rich in terms of spending on tech. They ahve traditionally been more worried about India, Russian and Taiwan. That and their military has always been an arm of the politics, and is more useful in control of the country than in fighting other places. So they build enough to keep the Russians nervous, and to rattle at other people. Problem is the US BMD changed the equation, so they'll have to spend money now to modernize. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-02-22 16:00 |
| #4 Thank you Old Spook for the excellent coverage. Guess that test puts my copy of Defcon out of date : ) |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2008-02-22 15:16 |
| #3 The Chinese have only 24 confirmed operational ICBMs. Why so few? |
| Posted by: danking70 2008-02-22 13:55 |
| #2 Nice to know. Thanks Old Spook |
| Posted by: danking70 2008-02-22 12:53 |
| #1 This explains their desire to get more subs. They can threaten one leg of our anti-ICBM triad, as well as hound our task forces. Thanks for the intel spook. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2008-02-22 06:50 |