| Not quite time to pull out the stabilitymeter, but ... |
Iraq's most influential Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has sharply reduced his workload in recent months, raising new questions about the health of the aged leader and the prospect of a dangerous power vacuum without a clear and dominant successor. Any change in al-Sistani's role or reach could have far-reaching consequences for both Iraq and the United States, which consider the Iranian-born cleric as perhaps the most powerful figure in Iraq and a vital stabilizing force in the oil-rich Shiite heartlands of southern Iraq.The most worrisome scenario is that — as al-Sistani's vast clout possibly wanes — the majority Shiites could further splinter into factions that could rattle Iraq's Shiite-led government and boost militias openly hostile to Washington.
Such an upheaval also would strike a direct blow to U.S. goals in the coming year: shoring up the government and its security forces while trying to consolidate military gains against Sunni insurgents led by al-Qaida in Iraq.