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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| War with China, an initial scenario. |
| 2008-01-22 |
| By Bill Gertz Pentagon officials are increasingly worried that China's military is advancing its clandestine anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons program by building a submarine-launched direct-ascent missile system. New information indicates the secret ASAT program, which Chinese leaders refused to discuss in recent meetings with visiting U.S. military leaders, will involve a space-capable ASAT warhead for the new JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile. The new missile is being readied for China's new ballistic missile submarine, called the Jin-class, or Type 094. The ASAT submarine will provide the ultimate in stealth weapons and could cripple U.S. satellites. The reports about submarine ASAT basing followed comments by Gen. James E. Cartwright, the former U.S. Strategic Command commander and current vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who told Congress last year the U.S. military is prepared to use conventional missile strikes on land-based Chinese ASAT launchers if Beijing began shooting down U.S. satellites. China successfully tested a direct-ascent ASAT missile from a mobile ground-based launcher a year ago, sending thousands of pieces of debris from a destroyed weather satellite into low Earth orbit and threatening U.S. satellites and others. The new information bolsters theoretical writings by Chinese military officials, which were disclosed in a report to Congress last year by Michael Pillsbury, a former Reagan administration defense official and specialist on China. Mr. Pillsbury stated in his report, "An Assessment of China's Anti-Satellite and Space Warfare Programs," that China's sea-based and submarine-based ASAT were mentioned in 2004 by Liu Huanyu of the Dalian Naval Academy. "Nuclear submarines are not only well concealed but can sail for a long period of time," Mr. Liu said. "By deploying just a few anti-satellite nuclear submarines in the ocean, one can seriously threaten the entire military space system of the enemy." Surface ships also can be built for "anti-satellite operations," he stated. Mr. Pillsbury's report was produced for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #11 WAFF.com + MEMRI > as based on the MEMRI article from Iranian website TABANAK, IRAN China]MAY USE SYRIA + LOCAL TERROR ORGS [North Korea]AS PROXY TO LAUNCH ATTACKS AGZ ISRAEL [USA][China-Taiwan] in the wake of any initial Israel missle attack agz Iran. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-01-22 19:40 |
| #10 I just don't see war between the US and China. I see war between Taiwan and China that would start as a trade war and blockade and non-nuclear missiles and end with Taiwan giving in before the US gets involved. This would happen after the Olympics and only if the oil prices remain high and the Chinese need to deflect their peoples attention. The other option in that scenario is Tianamen 2. The people just get sick of the communist party and stand up. They are either repressed or the communist party reorganizes and the older generation steps aside so the younger can pretend there is something different. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2008-01-22 17:21 |
| #9 IIUC, the Chinese think they could launch a sufficiently massive blow to our satellite infrastructure that it would cripple our overall capability instantaneously. |
| Posted by: lotp 2008-01-22 17:13 |
| #8 Any country using a boomer for something like this deserves to lose said boomer. You simply do NOT use a boomer in an ASAT role or even tactical ballistic missile role unless you have literal command of the seas surrounding it. Theres nothing to be gained from a sub launched ASAT in this particular case versus a normal ground launch, in fact you're risking a primary strategic asset needlessly. |
| Posted by: Valentine 2008-01-22 17:09 |
| #7 See FREEREPUBLIC this AM > AIRFORCETIMES [US] > A HYPOTHETICAL ATTACK AGZ THE US OUTLINED BY CHINA -ENTERING THE "DRAGON'S LAIR". FR Poster > argues that iff China were smart, they'd get NORTH KOREA to get into a mil conflict wid the US where the NOKORS will fire and detonate a high-atmosphere EMP weapon to damage US elex-energy and SPAWAR grids-networks. CHINA WILL THEN ANALYZE THE US RESPONSE TO NK AND PERHAPS USE ANY PERCEIVED WEAKNESS AS CAUSE TO ATTACK TAIWAN??? OTOH, WFORUM Poster > argues NOP WAY IN HELL THAT CHINA WILL STOP ONLY AT TAIWAN - US AIR AND NAVAL BASES THROUGHOUT THE PACIFIC AND EVEN US WEST COAST MUST ALSO BE ATTACKED vv CHICOM FIRST- STRIKE. Others - NORAM-CONUS must itself be invaded. DRUDGEREPORT > PUTIN LAUNCHES[Testfires] LR MISSLES INTO THE ATLANTIC. The BAY OF BISCAY near FRANCE-SPAIN, as part of Russ NAVEX + AIREX. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-01-22 17:04 |
| #6 I seriously doubt they are shadowed by one of our patrols. More likely SURTASS monitoring. |
| Posted by: Yosemite Sam 2008-01-22 15:24 |
| #5 Folks here seem to be extremely confident the ChiCom boomers are being shadowed. I hope you all are right. |
| Posted by: Excalibur 2008-01-22 10:50 |
| #4 China only has a couple of boomers IIRC. They might be readying this for use if war goes hot, since the boomers will be sunk quickly since they are most likely shadowed. Now if the Chinese figure out how to launch them underwater quickly or through the torpedo tubes and still take out a satellite... |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2008-01-22 10:28 |
| #3 #2 A satellite for a boomer. Doesn't seem like a wise trade. Depends on the satellite, maybe. |
| Posted by: docob 2008-01-22 08:41 |
| #2 A satellite for a boomer. Doesn't seem like a wise trade. |
| Posted by: ed 2008-01-22 07:41 |
| #1 I thought we shadowed all enemy boomers when they left port? Or was that just some novel I read? The thing starts launching missiles, it gets sunk immediately. |
| Posted by: gromky 2008-01-22 06:31 |