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| India-Pakistan |
| Why the Pakistani people prefer either Sharif or Bhutto to Musharraf (Stanley Kurtz) |
| 2007-12-28 |
| Because Musharraf fought them to the limited extent that he could, whereas Sharif and Bhutto appeased Islamists - since that's what their supporters wanted - while making eyes at the West. Like I said, the Pakistani people, not their leadership, are our enemy. There is limited support at the polls for Islamists because people like Sharif and Bhutto have co-opted the Islamists' issues, not because Pakistanis believe in secularism. Judging what the people of Pakistan "really want" is a tough job. Optimists generally point out that Islamist parties get only a small percentage of the vote. ThatÂ’s true, but itÂ’s also too simple. Nawaz Sharif is a mainstream politician with strong public support. He himself is "secular," but was also a protege of the Islamist-leaning General Zia, and has long been willing to ally with Islamists. Sharif was even reportedly aided by Osama bin Laden, and came close to instituting Sharia law when he was in power. Sharif was a serious potential power-holder before BhuttoÂ’s assassination, and other than Musharraf, is the only major politician left standing today. Giving power to Sharif, or a Sharif-based coalition, is one way in which elections could lead to a significant degree of power for Islamists. SharifÂ’s defenders point out that, whatever he may say publicly, he is in fact a savvy secularist who was willing to work with the Clinton administration against terrorists. ItÂ’s true that Sharif is perfectly capable of playing the habitual double game of Pakistani politicians. But in the current climate, the source of SharifÂ’s power lies in appeals to anti-Americanism. Already in the election campaign, Sharif has bragged about ignoring repeated phone calls from President Clinton, when Clinton was concerned about the development of PakistanÂ’s atomic bomb. I refused five phone calls from Clinton, boasts Sharif, while Musharraf buckled to Bush post-9/11 after just one phone call. ThatÂ’s how this "democrat" asks for votes. (For more on SharifÂ’s bogus democratic record, and on the weak nature of PakistanÂ’s democratic "tradition," see "Democracy Myth.") The question of how far democracy will help the Islamists (as by bringing in a mainstream ally like Sharif) is only one side of the problem. As SharifÂ’s anti-American election appeal makes clear, whether they would openly endorse suicide bombings or not, many Pakistanis are opposed to AmericaÂ’s war on terror. They may not want to be directly ruled by Osama bin Laden, but they respect bin Laden because he stands up to the United States. Even if Pakistanis wouldnÂ’t vote for an overtly Islamist candidate, the public is largely opposed to any military campaign against the Taliban in the countryÂ’s tribal Northwest. Pakistanis arenÂ’t against Musharraf because heÂ’s a dictator so much as theyÂ’re against him because he allows the Americans to push PakistanÂ’s army into a fight with the jihadists. After MusharrafÂ’s first coup, few Pakistanis mourned for "democracy." They were just as tired of corrupt and incompetent rule by "democratic" leaders like Bhutto and Sharif in 1999 as they are fed up with Musharraf today. ItÂ’s not democracy, or the lack thereof, that drives the bulk of the people for or against a particular regime, but the general deterioration of conditions in Pakistan. Polling data may show support for Bhutto, but itÂ’s not because of her strong anti-terror position, but in spite of it. BhuttoÂ’s support comes partly from her regional allies, but also from those who remember the populist quasi-socialist policies of her father. The economic dreams of PakistanÂ’s poor are with Bhutto. Her supporters are poor people who havenÂ’t benefitted from the growth of PakistanÂ’s economy under Musharraf. TheyÂ’re attracted to BhuttoÂ’s socialism, not to hopes for liberal democracy or military assaults against the Taliban. BhuttoÂ’s sophisticated backers always billed her to Americans as someone who could convince her reluctant constituency to accept a war on terror that the Pakistani people really donÂ’t want. So itÂ’s a mistake to read support for Bhutto as support for the war on terror. I donÂ’t think she could have turned public opinion around on that anyway, and I think itÂ’s even less likely that her PPP successor could do so. Americans may see BhuttoÂ’s assassination as final proof that Pakistanis ought to support the war on terror. But PakistanÂ’s "democratic" politicians are more interested in using the assassination to turn the public against Musharraf. Another thing that gets missed is that even (or especially) many of BhuttoÂ’s most Westernized and secular supporters despise the war on terror. The question is less how many Pakistanis support the Taliban than how many support AmericaÂ’s war on terror within Pakistan. The answer is, not very many. And this is a big part of why an illiberal and purely electoral democracy in Pakistan is a problem. Right now we face the very real prospect of an electoral coalition in which Sharif and allied Islamists hold significant power. Yes, Sharif would still run a double game against terrorism to mollify the Americans, but it would be vastly more tenuous than even MusharrafÂ’s game is now, and would constantly threaten to collapse into anti-American demagoguery (now a key source of SharifÂ’s popular appeal). Even an electoral victory by a Bhutto successor could mean trouble. BhuttoÂ’s supporters do not favor the war on terror, and could in any case fall into conflicts with the army that would lead to further chaos. And remember, Bhutto and Sharif alternated in power, and their respective parties and coalitions would surely alternate again. Disenchantment with a regime ruled by a Bhutto successor would lead to victory in the next election for an even more virulently anti-American Sharif-Islamist coalition. This is the future of "democracy" in Pakistan. |
| Posted by:Zhang Fei |
| #1 Note that Bhutto's supporters are venting against Musharraf instead of Al Qaeda, which has claimed credit for Bhutto's death, or Sharif, who is al Qaeda's stalking horse in Pakistan. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2007-12-28 13:23 |