#2 Glenmore, every explosion creates at least a half-dozen blood feuds. This is what has happened in Anbar province, and to a lesser extent elsewhere. The Iraqis demand revenge against those that kill their family members, and the "Awakening" movement gives them a chance to actually get that revenge. Most of the large families in Iraq have lost one or more members, and need to respond. Turning against al-qaida and the baathists is one way to get that revenge, either directly or indirectly. The tipping point was reached six to eight months ago, and the only thing left now is the clean-up. Unfortunately, that could take up to ten years. In the meantime, there are fewer and fewer Arabs willing to accept the al-qaida cant. The only places to recruit from seem to be Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia (the Pakistanis are needed at home, or in Afghanistan).
Are there enough psychotics in Iraq for AQ to 'win'?
ALL Muslims are psychotic - it goes with their religion. The question should be, are there enough psychotics willing to help al-qaida win. I wasn't sure before, but I'm beginning to believe that a tipping point has been reached here, as well. al-qaida is already dipping deeply into the barrel to find the necessary suicide bombers to just keep the action going. Eventually, probably within a year at most, that barrel will be virtually empty. |