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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Their own worst nightmare |
| 2007-12-16 |
| With the Dec. 3 publication of a completely unexpected declassified National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," a consensus has emerged that war with Iran "now appears to be off the agenda." Indeed, Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, claimed the report dealt a "fatal blow" to the country's enemies, while his foreign ministry spokesman called it a "great victory." I disagree with that consensus, believing that military action against Iran is now more likely than before the NIE came out. The NIE's main point, contained in its first line, famously holds: "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." Other analysts - John Bolton, Patrick Clawson, Valerie Lincy and Gary Milhollin, Claudia Rossett, and Gerald Steinberg have skillfully dissected and refuted this shoddy, politicized, outrageous parody of a piece of propaganda, so I need not dwell on that here. Further, leading members of Congress are "not convinced" of the NIE's conclusions. French and German leaders snubbed it, as did the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and even the International Atomic Energy Agency believe its American counterparts were hoodwinked, while Israeli intelligence responded with shock and disappointment. LET US skip ahead then, and ask what are the long-term implications of the 2007 report? |
| Posted by:g(r)omgoru |
| #8 The CIA will be massively re-organized or shut down entirely. This may be more likely under a Democratic president who thinks he/she will get a pass from the media while it is underway. If a Democrat re-orgs the CIA, it'll be worse than it is now. |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2007-12-16 20:09 |
| #7 Compare wid NEWSMAX > NEW IRAN REPORT COULD SPARK WAR. A new anti-Israeli, "YOM KIPPUR" style SURPRISE ATTACK, ONLY NUCLEARIZED/WMD-ized to Israel's detriment = destruction? by Israel's dedic enemies. * Israel has already indic it may have to adopt PREEMPTIVE policies. A ME/REGIONAL NUKE-WMD ARMS RACE = means ISRAEL in LT will be like TAIWAN, choosing to go down fighting before being de facto defeated iff not absolut destroyed. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2007-12-16 18:57 |
| #6 (No, I don't want the job either.) |
| Posted by: Redneck Jim 2007-12-16 16:09 |
| #5 WX James, the problem is that politics has become such a cesspool, no decent thinking men want to be fouled by the process, so all we get are vile connivers, Honest men need not apply. |
| Posted by: Redneck Jim 2007-12-16 16:08 |
| #4 The only purpose of the report is to stop the cowboy, Bush from starting another war. (period) Those who authored the report have never been granted the power to stop a president from such an action, and were I the Congress, I would serve all contributing agencies with a swift ten percent reduction in the next budget. But then, I have both brains and balls, and the Congress has neither. |
| Posted by: wxjames 2007-12-16 12:03 |
| #3 NIE rope-a-dope. |
| Posted by: Skunky Glins5285 2007-12-16 11:43 |
| #2 leading members of Congress are "not convinced" of the NIE's conclusions. French and German leaders snubbed it, as did the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and even the International Atomic Energy Agency believe its American counterparts were hoodwinked, while Israeli intelligence responded with shock and disappointment. I'll talk this one to death elsewhere, but suffice it to say that the NIE is having an effect, albeit one possibly not-intended by its authors. It has to do with the willingness of certain groups (like diplomats and foreign relations wonks) to take the written word at full face value. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2007-12-16 10:45 |
| #1 LET US skip ahead then, and ask what are the long-term implications of the 2007 report? The CIA will be massively re-organized or shut down entirely. This may be more likely under a Democratic president who thinks he/she will get a pass from the media while it is underway. |
| Posted by: Excalibur 2007-12-16 09:47 |