At a ceremony on Sunday, Iraq's security forces are to assume overall command of Basra for the first time since Saddam Hussein was deposed in 2003. The move, known in military jargon as "going PIC", which stands for Provincial Iraqi Control, paves the way for UK troop numbers in Iraq's second city to fall to 2,500 by the spring. Maj Gen Graham Binns, the commanding officer of forces in south-east Iraq, said that the Iraqi army had been rated capable of imposing order on the city without back-up from UK forces stationed at Basra air station and in Kuwait.
But a severe bout of violence would trigger a call for the fire-power of allies in the US-led coalition. "We are a coalition and if additional troops are required, they could come from within our reserve or from within the coalition," Gen Binns said.
| Which means Uncle Sugar, natch. |
His comments follow warnings from US officials that a British withdrawal would leave US forces having to intervene in the south, while heavily committed elsewhere in Iraq.
In August, the retired US general, Jack Keane, said: "From a military perspective I know what the commanders are trying to avoid is having to send reinforcements to the south from forces that are needed in the central part of Iraq. That situation could arise if the situation gets worse in Basra, if and when British troops leave."
The Army has already adopted its post-PIC posture. Preparations for an Iraqi operation early next month to confront Basra's so-called "irreconcilables" - locals who pose the greatest threat to security - are under way with the UK lined up to provide surveillance, intelligence and aerial support.
| That will be an interesting exercise. Let's see if the IA can run the op with the Brits in the background. |
The road as well as Basra's borders with Iran and Kuwait will continue to be secured with British fire-power. A battle group, led by the Duke of Lancaster's Regiment, confronts the daily dangers of patrols in the insurgent-rich region.
Since arriving last month, its Mastiff armoured personnel carriers have hit seven roadside bombs. "We've got an area the size of the North West of England to protect with 550 men," said Lt Col Gary Deakin. "We'll be maintaining security in a patch that includes the combat supply route, Iraq's only deep-water port and the borders. It's our area and we'll do what we can to maintain security in it."
Maj Tom Perkins, the commander of a 1st Scots detachment in the battle group, said: "There are elements out to take advantage of what might be perceived as a vacuum after the PIC."