By Bill Roggio
More than a month after the Taliban took over the settled district of Swat, once the most visited tourist spot in Pakistan, the Pakistani Army has yet to dislodge the Taliban from the scenic valley. The Pakistani military, beset by problems with poor morale and a poor counterinsurgency strategy, have made few gains since launching their ground offensive after weeks of bombarding civilian centers.
[..]
Usually Bill and I are real close in our opinions, but in this isolated case we disagree, and for reasons that are likely a one-time shot. In my opinion, we'll see a stalemate only if Perv loses his nerve again or Kiyani's conked with a golf ball — still, I admit, a possibility, but I doubt it at this stage.
The "Taliban" are, in fact, being dislodged from Swat. The Mighty Pak Army's racked up some pretty impressive numbers — they're claiming 220 hard boyz banged in the past ten days, versus 15 of their own dead. Mullah Fazlullah's illegal radio station is off the air and he's nowhere to be found. His spokesman, Maulana Sirajuddin, is ditto. Fazlullah's brother and Sirajuddin's nephew were nabbed with 40 hard boyz trying to hightail it out of town. One of the brother's bodyguards was wearing a boom belt. Rather than use it, he meekly raised his hands. The turbans have "vacated their trenches," exercising the better part of valor. To me, that looks like a rout.
There are Taliban, and then there are "Taliban." The "Taliban" in this case are the TNSM, the goobers who rode to the aid of the Talibs in Afghanistan on pickup trucks six years ago, waving AKs and swords, hollering, grimacing fearsomely and rolling their eyes. The ones who weren't slaughtered by the Northern Alliance were held for ransom. Sufi Mohammad, the leader of the TNSM, was jugged, for seven years if I remember correctly, as much for his own protection as anything else.
Mullah Fazlullah is Sufi Mohammad's son-in-law. Half of the current TNSM fiasco's purpose was to have Sufi Mohammad sprung from jug. He's 75 years old, frail, with diabetes, and still nuts. The other half involved the demands for the institution of shariah in Swat, which still could happen — that's one of the planks in the MMA platform. The inspiration for this whole action comes from the Lal Masjid episode, which indicates the TNSM's leadership isn't really good at defining "success."
I snarked when the Paks started moving troops into the area that they were starting out easy with the TNSM. It was snark, but it was also correct. Even with Uzbeks and the occasional Arab for leavening, their cake of victory came out pretty flat. TNSM is definitely the minor leagues when it comes to "Taliban." Their tactics are limited -- without having actually seen them in action, I'd guess that all assaults are frontal assaults. They dug trenches, fergawdsake and they no doubt waved their manhood guns at the gunships approaching to strafe those trenches. The Mighty Pak Army taking on Baitullah Mehsud would look different indeed.
However, given the infusion of self-confidence that comes with a major victory — which the TNSM collapse could be painted as — that might throw enough backbone into the local commanders to take on Baitullah, should he get too far out of line. That would probably get them a thorough nose-twisting in conjunction with a shoe leather massage of the gluteal area. But it doesn't actually have to come to that. There are lots of negotiations going on, both backdoor and through the never-ending jirgas. The prospect of the turbans being hit by "real" soldiers rather than frontier levies strengthens the government's hand. 250 frontier levies will surrender without a shot being fired, and they make good bargaining chips. Baitullah losing 220 of his tribemen to a mere 15 dead Punjabis is a different story. Swat shows that it's a possibility, however remote. |
|