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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| North Korea about to go under? |
| 2007-11-27 |
| WorlswideStandard.com Intelligence sources and other observers both here in the capital of the PRC and elsewhere in Asia are stating that they project a possible collapse of the North Korean regime within six months time. Although there have been similar dire predictions made in the past, those analyzing the current situation point to several factors that indicate that the regime may finally be unraveling. Recent activity by both Kim Jong-Il and other DPRK officials suggest that the Dear Leader is in the process of moving around the financial resources of Pyongyang’s international banking empire in order to make sure he is taken care of should he have to go into exile. This includes a recent visit to the United States by North Korean finance officials who were visiting to learn about the international financial circulation network. Ostensibly, this visit was preparatory work that would allow the country to re-join the international financial system. . . . But, there are others who suggest that this is also part of a contingency plan in order to make Kim’s assets “portable.” While the Dear Leader is engaged in financial matters, other reports state that there are movements of U.S. and South Korean military units and equipment to the DMZ in what appears to be a pre-positioning exercise in anticipation of some internal upheavals in the north. Indications that the regime is possibly losing its grip and that Kim may be failing to maintain control over events are seen in what happens both inside--and how people are managing to get outside of--the country. A recent article in the Washington Post details how it has become far easier and more common for North Koreas to find ways of getting out of their country. How much money you have determines how arduous and circuitous your escape route might be. The key factor to watch is how rapidly the numbers of people fleeing are increasing. Only 41 North Koreans were able to reach the South in 1995, but the rate of those escaping has grown each year and last year it reached 2,000. What makes these multiple escape routes out of the country possible is that there are a growing number of DPRK border guards and secret police officials who are willing to take bribes to allow their fellow countrymen to escape. North Korea watchers regard this as a telltale sign of the regime losing its control. Part of the motivation for these border control officials’ desire to collect bribes is that the centrally-controlled economy has ceased to function and the food distribution system is nearly as broken. But, the other side of the coin, they say, is that those accepting these under-the-table payments do not fear the punishment of higher-ranking authorities as much as they once did. . . . Instapundit comments: I hope so, but I've been hearing that for a while. Eventually it'll be true -- but two things we know about totalitarian regimes are that they tend to hang on longer than they should, but that when they go it's often with astonishing suddenness. |
| Posted by:Mike |
| #17 Sorry about the double post. Lastly, this would help the Republicans as it would mean two our of three of the Axis of Evil down before Bush leaves the White House. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2007-11-27 23:30 |
| #16 China will seal the border because they don't want to deal with it with the Olympics coming up. They may be involved in the final removal of Kim or hiw attempted replacement in order to put themselves in a good position viz-a-ve a united Korea. South Korea, Japan and the US will suck up the cost of absorbing the North into Korea. United Korea will be neutral and pacifist because its cheaper and easier. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2007-11-27 23:29 |
| #15 China will seal the border because they don't want to deal with it with the Olympics coming up. They may be involved in the final removal of Kim or hiw attempted replacement in order to put themselves in a good position viz-a-ve a united Korea. South Korea, Japan and the US will suck up the cost of absorbing the North into Korea. United Korea will be neutral and pacifist because its cheaper and easier. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2007-11-27 23:29 |
| #14 Hopefully its Romania all over again. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2007-11-27 23:16 |
| #13 TALK RADIO > Dubya reportedly is considering/planning to visit Asia in January 2008 to shore up support for stronger anti-Iran UNO sanctions + multilater nuke-trade diplom over the Norkies, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE VISIT TO PYONGYANG??? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2007-11-27 17:41 |
| #12 I bet cold hard cash that "Dear Leader" aka "Lil Kim" would not make it past 90 days. He has proven resilent if nothing else and I would not announce his demise until I see the bodies and/or emergency flights to Beijing. |
| Posted by: Cyber Sarge 2007-11-27 16:19 |
| #11 Oops, that should be The Doctor and not doc. Different critters. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2007-11-27 14:45 |
| #10 the Communist system that directly contributed to the disaster will be ignored in favor of criticism of Kim's cult of personality and a dozen other things . . . Word, doc. Count on the MSM to ignore any culpability of their communist overlords. 'moose, I think your assessment is a bit too roseate. I cannot foresee China tolerating a democracy of any sort directly abutting their border. The chance of ideological infection becomes almost overwhelming. As Stephen Green notes, this leaves the truly ugly scenario of a post-Kim Chinese incursion. Fortunately, America currently wields a big stick with which to club the Politburo into submission. Interference with Korea's unification would provide the absolute perfect excuse to boycott the Olympics. China has so much national pride and significant financial resources invested in this one single event that they are now hamstrung by it. We can only hope that America's leadership has the wisdom and political will to leverage this situation into a desirable outcome. If anything, we need to facilitate Kim's exit—geographic or corporeal—before the Olympics' launch specifically to enhance the potency of such a threat. As for any opposition to reunification on South Korea's part, we should merely threaten to allow whatever hostile communist regime to resume housekeeping in Pyongyang should Seoul prove uncooperative. South Korea's unfair economic trade policies and rather faithless relationship with America needs to be rewarded with the burden of a reunion similar to that of Germany. It will economically drain this mini-dragon and keep it on the sidelines for the better part of a decade. Not, altogether, a bad thing. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2007-11-27 14:43 |
| #9 I'll predict that if Nork falls, it will neither be bloody or violent, for the simple reason that everyone there is just utterly exhausted and starved. More than anything else, China, the South, and the US will begin massive food shipments into the North. With their bellies full, the last thing they will want is trouble. However, step beyond that. At that point, China, the South and the US will do some deals. This will optimally result in Korea being unified and getting a bunch of external aid, and China being mollified by the US pulling back all the way to Pusan and really just interested in the naval base there. The big winner in this would be China. It would no longer have to fret or spend a whole lot of money on Korea, in that if everything was peaceful, Korea would make China a ton of money as a new major trading partner, without being a threat. The Koreans could disband most of their military, and things could be sweetness and light all the way around. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2007-11-27 12:06 |
| #8 South Korea has been maneuvering frantically for years to avoid taking on the burden that reunification presents. Nor do I see China wanting it -- it's one thing to have an attack dog diverting U.S. resources while China gets ready for the next war, it's quite another for China to come down to the Korean border and growl itself, while somehow preventing starving hordes of brainwashed North Koreans from invading China looking for food. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2007-11-27 11:45 |
| #7 from Green's comments: But no matter how you slice it, the liberation of 22 million people would be a wonderful thing. The disappearance of a hereditary communist gangster state wouldn't exactly suck, either. But the aftermath is going to be bloody and messy--and might require the involvement of Beijing to a degree not seen in Korea since 1951, when the PLA crossed the Yalu River en masse. At which point China finally wins the Korean War. |
| Posted by: lotp 2007-11-27 10:26 |
| #6 I suspect China at least has the will & the means to totally overwhelm any wave of refugees from its lapdog. South Korea, not so much. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2007-11-27 09:50 |
| #5 Stephen Green at VodkaPundit has an analysis of this as well. Worth reading. |
| Posted by: Deacon Blues 2007-11-27 09:16 |
| #4 Although there have been similar dire predictions made in the past, those analyzing the current situation point to several factors that indicate that the regime may finally be unraveling. In what possible sense is this a "dire" prediction? Millions are starving under the current regime. In this case the Chinese axiom is mistaken: Chaos would be preferable. |
| Posted by: Excalibur 2007-11-27 09:15 |
| #3 And yet, DarthVader, I'd be willing to bet my Christmas that the Communist system that directly contributed to the disaster will be ignored in favor of criticism of Kim's cult of personality and a dozen other things . . . |
| Posted by: The Doctor 2007-11-27 09:15 |
| #2 The humanitarian crisis will be unlike anything ever seen in modern times. If the NORKs fail in winter, hundreds of thousands could starve. The refugees will overwhelm both China and the south. Ugly, very ugly. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2007-11-27 08:59 |
| #1 Like the "World Community" will let it happen. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2007-11-27 08:45 |