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Iraq
AQI Is Out of Baghdad, U.S. Says
2007-11-09
American forces have routed Al Qaeda in Iraq, the Iraqi militant network, from every neighborhood of Baghdad, a top American general said today, allowing American troops involved in the “surge” to depart as planned.
Don't heave your sigh of relief too deeply. Unless they flat out give up, they're bound to try to make a comeback. Otherwise they lose too much face, or tuban, or whatever the hell it is that they lose. If we're waiting for the first sign and come down on them with both feet as soon as the first whiff of them appears, we'll keep them out, until they make the next try. If we let them hide behind civilians and holy men we'll have to do it all over again, with less support and probably with a commander who's no Petreaus.
Maj. Gen. Joseph F. Fil Jr., commander of United States forces in Baghdad, also said that American troops had yet to clear some 13 percent of the city, including Sadr City and several other areas controlled by Shiite militias. But, he said, “there’s just no question” that violence had declined since a spike in June. “Murder victims are down 80 percent from where they were at the peak,” and attacks involving improvised bombs are down 70 percent, he said.
It'll spike again when we take on Sadr City.
General Fil attributed the decline to improvements in the Iraqi security forces, a cease-fire ordered by the Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, the disruption of financing for insurgents, and, most significant, Iraqis’ rejection of “the rule of the gun.”

His comments, in a broad interview over egg rolls and lo mein in a Green Zone conference room, were the latest in a series of upbeat assessments he and other commanders have offered in recent months. But his descriptions revealed a city still in transition: tormented by its past, struggling to find a better future. “The Iraqi people have just decided that they’ve had it up to here with violence,” he said, while noting that their demands for electricity, water and jobs have intensified.
Posted by:Fred

#4  Fred Don't heave your sigh of relief too deeply.

dittos, assuming the NYSlimes didn't spin Maj. Gen. Joseph F. Fil Jr, [*I know*] These types of statements have always returned to KICK ME IN THE A$$ whenever I've made them.

Call me plumb superstitious but I has lernt me up the Hard Way to Never make absolute blanket statements at all costs ..aaahh excepting this one heh
Posted by: Red Dawg   2007-11-09 11:24  

#3  from what ive read, my impression is that theyve run outside of Baghdad, including Diyala and other points North, but also South to the triangle of death between Baghdad and Hilla. Where the coalition has them under pressure, but theyre far from gone.

And the Mahdi army is still in Baghdad in force, but is maintaining a hudna, which our forces have been respecting, going after 'rogue' elements, and perhaps pushing the Sadrists around the edges. Even with the surge forces, Petraeus doesnt have so many troops that he could have achieved such strong progress against AQI while going full bore against Sadr at the same time. The strategy, I guess, is that with AQI weakened, theres less incentive for ordinary Shiites to support extremists, and that during the surge the political center of gravity of the Iraqi forces has shifted, incorporating more Sunnis and fewer Sadrists (while SCIRI and Dawa loyal Shiites and Kurds remain the core).

Its yet to be seen if that shift will hold. The fragility of it, is the principle reason why the post-surge US withdrawl needs to be gradual.
Posted by: Liberalhawk   2007-11-09 11:23  

#2  Good idea, we can always pull a "Weekend at Tater's" if your experiment fails.
Posted by: Ol Dirty American   2007-11-09 09:16  

#1  <>It'll spike again when we take on Sadr City.

Dunno, but I would suggest an experiment... to lower the temperature of Muqty, perm, and see what happens.
Posted by: twobyfour   2007-11-09 01:49  

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