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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Taiwan might apply for UN membership -- as Taiwan |
| 2007-09-10 |
| Tensions lately have ratcheted up over an ambitious political gambit by Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian that has rattled both China and the U.S., Taiwan's closest ally. At issue is Chen's plan for a public referendum next year on Taiwan seeking entry to the United Nations. Beijing views the referendum as a direct challenge to its claim that Taiwan is part of China. No one expects war anytime soon, but Chen's move worries U.S. officials enough that they have publicly criticized it. The United States is wary of getting dragged into a scrap between a democratic friend and its giant neighbor across the Taiwan Straits. Chen's initiative is a "mistake," Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte said last month. Seeming to support China's view, he said the referendum would be "a step towards ... a declaration of independence of Taiwan," and urged Taiwanese authorities to "behave in a responsible manner." China hardly wants war either. That would cast a giant shadow over its economic leap forward and next summer's Beijing Olympics. But ignoring Chen would give new impetus to Taiwanese independence—a prospect Beijing abhors. The controversy boils down to a name. Taiwan has applied for U.N. membership before—more than a dozen times since it was expelled from the world body in 1971 when the China seat was transferred to Beijing. But except for a failed attempt this year, it always did so under its official name—the Republic of China. That's what Gen. Chiang Kai-shek called the island when he and his Nationalist forces fled there in 1949 as Mao Zedong's Communists took control of China. Mao and Chiang hated each other, but they agreed on one thing: There could only be one China. Chiang was no less vehement than the Communists in resisting any notion of an independent Taiwan. Many of those who laid the groundwork for Chen's Democratic Progressive Party once served in prison for advocating independence. Now Chen wants the electorate's permission to apply for U.N. membership under the name Taiwan—a crucial difference because it implies a rejection of the "one China" concept. The referendum would ask whether the territory should apply for U.N. membership as "Taiwan." The Mainland Affairs Council, which implements Taiwan's China policies, published a poll in August putting support at more than 70 percent. Any name would be symbolic. The U.N. Security Council would have to approve Taiwan's membership, and China has a veto. The "aim is to provoke conflicts from the two sides, cheat Taiwanese people to get more votes and realize plans of Taiwan independence," said Yang Yi, a spokesman for China's Taiwan Affairs Office. Yang's reference to votes reflects a widespread Taiwanese perception that Chen, although a longtime supporter of independence, is holding the referendum mainly because he thinks it's a huge vote-getter. The referendum is expected to take place during elections to choose Chen's successor in March, and it puts the main opposition Nationalist Party in a bind—to oppose the measure and lose credibility, or support it and appear to be a DPP clone. For the time being, Nationalist presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou has adopted a middle ground, supporting U.N. membership, but as the Republic of China. |
| Posted by: |
| #20 Trust the UN to support communist China on this one. No way does the UN want another prosperous capitalistic democracy on board making the rest of their pissant failed member nations look like the despotic hellholes they already are. Here, here. |
| Posted by: Secret Master 2007-09-10 22:38 |
| #19 Won't work. Their best bet is to seek joint statehood with the mainland. They are already integrating economically. |
| Posted by: McZoid 2007-09-10 21:54 |
| #18 I stand corrected. No wonder China has such a charm offensive going on in Central America. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2007-09-10 21:34 |
| #17 There are a few countries that 'recognize' Taiwan. Taiwan has a handful of embassies and quite a lot of diplomatic missions... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_diplomatic_missions |
| Posted by: john frum 2007-09-10 21:12 |
| #16 I predicted this here at Rantburg months ago. True. And I think it is a great prediction and back it. ;) |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2007-09-10 21:06 |
| #15 How is Taiwan not "independent" ? Because not a single country recognizes its independence from China, not even the U. S. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2007-09-10 20:59 |
| #14 Watch. Taiwan will declare independence six months before the Olympics. I predicted this here at Rantburg months ago. Any military action would cause a massive Olympic boycott. This is a classic and well deserved no-win situation for China. Both action or inaction mean a loss of face, something prized beyond all measure in high context Chinese culture. Tainted goods already have China on thin ice, if the dragon starts belching fire it'll plunge right through. Trust the UN to support communist China on this one. No way does the UN want another prosperous capitalistic democracy on board making the rest of their pissant failed member nations look like the despotic hellholes they already are. Also, no way in hell do we want China taking over Taiwan. As the world's eighteenth economy, Taiwan—with one fiftieth of China's population nonetheless—has one tenth the GDP of China. The politburo's Mandarins drool in their sleep over dreams of raping this incredible little economic powerhouse. Taiwan represents a technology gold mine that would pull China forward in semiconductor manufacturing by decades. That is an entirely unacceptable prospect for any sane person. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2007-09-10 19:40 |
| #13 How is Taiwan not "independent" ? Since when is independence something granted by the UN Security Council? Does some other state control Taiwan? Is there a colonial governor or viceroy running the show there? A foreign organized army of occupation? Do Taiwanese pay taxes to some other nation? Taiwan is a far more prosperous and stable nation state than most members of the UN. It has a democratically elected legislature, a judiciary and an executive. It enforces its own laws, it has an effective military. It has an advanced industrial economy. Taiwan is not independent because Beijing claims it? The Chinese claim territory of ten of their neighbors. That doesn't make the lands Chinese. Can China enforce its writ on Taiwanese soil? One future Taiwanese nuclear weapon aimed at Beijing or Shanghai and all Chinese dreams of conquest evaporate. |
| Posted by: john frum 2007-09-10 19:03 |
| #12 I believe China will respond as they usually do. By threatening the people that trade with Taiwan and thus economically shackling them until Taiwan's people just give in. If I was the PRC I'd make up a Tawianese Indepedence group to blame for the agitating. Make them sound like the Hawaiians that want Hawaiian Kingdom's return (or similar group in Puerto Rico). The world is filled with such groups and would be willing to ignore the lie to avoid prescidents about Freedom. If I was the PRC I'd also call Tawian an Autonomous Area or whatever the term for Hong Kong is as a semi-explanation of why Taiwan has a slightly different political situation. Hell, I'd even consider telling people that Tiawan settled their independence stuff a decade ago when the Security Council Seat changed and force Taiwan to disprove the lie. Tell the people of China how much aid they send into Taiwan and make them look arrogant and unthankful. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2007-09-10 13:35 |
| #11 Alos there are at least three kinds of people populations in Taiwan: melanesians (ythe original inhabitants), those who came before Japanese occupation and Tchang Kai Check's chinse. The melanesians couldn't care less about China and I am not so sure that the pre-Japan Chinese care so much about it. |
| Posted by: JFM 2007-09-10 11:31 |
| #10 No doubt Taiwan declaring independence would leave the Chicoms few nice choices. But to do nothing would also reveal them to be a fireless dragon. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2007-09-10 11:27 |
| #9 The rational response by the Chicoms would be to invade Taiwan and squish it like a bug. Assumming they can. D-Day was a squad short of being a disaster: seven demolition squads failed to blow the wirse barring the narrow exit from Omaha and it was the eight and last who succeeded. But China is not going to enjoy the overwehelming naval and air superiority of the Allies and it would be very embarrassing for the Chicoms if their invasion force became fish food. Embarrassing enough for toppling the Party leader and perhaps regime itself. |
| Posted by: JFM 2007-09-10 11:20 |
| #8 Mitch, I would bet that the bad PR would cause many nations to boycott the olympics. That, after the toy and other export PR problems would really make China not look very good as an investment choice. I would expect China to make nice and then a couple months after the olympics to try to invade. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2007-09-10 11:04 |
| #7 The rational response by the Chicoms would be to invade Taiwan and squish it like a bug. Otherwise, every warlord in the empire will be tempted to further remove his satrap from control of the center. Six and a half months should be just about enough time to mobilize the troops and finalize the plan. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2007-09-10 11:00 |
| #6 Darth: what, on the theory that Olympic restraint will chill the ChiComs long enough to let the inevitable ground-swell hypernationalist fury pass without help from the official line? Sort of going for two lesser swells - one intrinsic & grassroots at the time of announcement, the other manufactured after the Olympics are over & it's safe to be officially ugly? That sort of assumes that the Party is rational on the issue of Taiwanese independence, or at least more rational than the 'roiding garden-variety nationalist-in-the-street. |
| Posted by: Mitch H. 2007-09-10 10:46 |
| #5 Watch. Taiwan will declare independence six months before the Olympics. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2007-09-10 10:01 |
| #4 China has not screwed up Hong Kong too much, especially not economically. GDP is up 25% from 2003 to 2007. I doubt they would screw up Taiwan, either. It seems to me that in the long run Taiwan and HK will do more to undermine the Chicoms than vice versa. But the electronics world would have to seriously reconsider the amount of semiconductor production taking place on Taiwan if the Chicoms took over. TSMC, UTI, et al falling under communist control would have serious implications for the civilian electronics sector. Would it extend to the military? A lot of stuff is bought off the shelf these days. lotp? |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2007-09-10 09:27 |
| #3 No one expects war |
| Posted by: Excalibur 2007-09-10 09:06 |
| #2 It was ok during the Soviet hegemony that the Baltic States and the Ukraine had seats concurrent with Moscow, I see no basis to object to this [other than of course the pure play of power]. While we're at it, throw in Puerto Rico also for a seat. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2007-09-10 07:58 |
| #1 Good lord, it's only Taiwan, not China's manhood or something. Let it go. If China gets their hands on Taiwan it's toast, and that would look bad (as in "I haven't heard much about Hong Kong recently, have you?"). Leave a good thing alone. |
| Posted by: gorb 2007-09-10 07:40 |