The decision by Iraqi Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to "He's a very, very shrewd and calculating politician," Adel Darwish, veteran Middle East commentator, said of the influential black-turbaned cleric. "He'll stay quiet for six months or a year," Darwish said by telephone from London. Sadr was likely to make his first move when British forces withdraw from Basra in southern Iraq, said Egyptian-born Darwish who has written two books on Iraq, including one on executed dictator Saddam Hussein. Once the troops have left, "very quietly he'll move in," he predicted.
In the longer term, Sadr is biding his time until the inevitable pullout of all US-led forces from war-ravaged Iraq, said Darwish. "He's just waiting for the American withdrawal &0151; once the coalition forces are out they can do whatever they like."
| A firm grasp of the obvious, has this expert. |
| Gunbattles that are apparently continuing...so who knows how much control he really has... |
The events at Karbala were an embarrassment to Sadr, according to Joost Hiltermann, the chief Iraq expert at the International Crisis Group think-tank. "He doesn't want to be seen fighting Shiites right beside the shrines of Imam Hussein and Imam Abbas," said Hiltermann, referring to Shiite Islam's holiest sites in Karbala. "There are too many loose elements (in the Mahdi Army) and he wants to regain control," he added. "This is purely an internal matter."
Sadr, he said, has no intention of ever disbanding his militia, which according to a December 2006 report by the Iraq Survey Group boasts about 60,000 fighters. "He needs the Mahdi Army," said Hiltermann. "As long as he has access to violence, the other parties will let him in. He has always played a dual role."
| Hmmm. Get access to violence, and you play with the big boys. Hmmm. |
| No, he's a thug, more than willing to allow his 'supporters' to wallow in their own s**t if they'll pick up a rock or a gun for his glory. |
Analyst Nabil Mohammed Younis, professor of strategic studies at Baghdad University, agreed that the Karbala bloodbath was the catalyst for Sadr's move. "I think after Karbala he was keen to calm down the activities (of the Mahdi Army) for a while so that no one finds him responsible for what is happening," said Younis. "He no longer maintains authority over his followers... there are many, many leaders who are acting according to their own interests," he added. "They are not very disciplined and this is part of the problem."
The professor said he believed Sadr will make a move on the political front in the coming months. "I think he is going to make a decision to go for a position either in the government or parliament, depending how things go in the next few months," he said. "He will be watching the military situation regarding withdrawal of the American troops," said Younis. "He will take his time, he will watch the happenings on the ground. He will find a suitable time to make such a decision."