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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Gaza lurches towards civil war
2007-05-17
And if the Times says they're lurching, they're lurching!
Gaza was on the brink of civil war last night as violent clashes between Palestinian factions spiralled out of control. Mahmoud Abbas, the ineffectual Palestinian President, threatened to declare a state of emergency today, as fierce fighting raged on the streets.

But as the death toll climbed to more than 40 in four days of the worst fighting since Mr Abbas forged a coalition Government with FatahÂ’s rival Hamas two months ago, he appeared powerless to stop it. Neither faction has been able or particularly willing to enforce three separate ceasefires declared in as many days. Rare, high-level talks between Mr Abbas and Khaled Meshaal, HamasÂ’s terrorist exiled leader, failed to produce any results beyond a loose agreement that the violence should end.

Hamas issued orders for its fighters to lay down their weapons late yesterday but there was no indication whether the order would be obeyed.
You mean Hamas gunnies don't obey orders? Mwha-ha-ha.
At least 16 Palestinians were shot dead in internecine fighting yesterday and four Hamas gunmen were killed when an Israeli helicopter helizapped bombed their training camp near Rafah.

Last night Palestinian politicians cautioned that if the violence continued, it would not only trigger the collapse of the Palestinian unity Government, but could also spell the end of the Palestinian Authority itself. “If the unity Government falls, the Palestinian Authority will dissolve,” said Mustafa Barghouti, the Palestinian Information Minister.
Boy howdy that'd be a shame.
He said Mr Abbas had told his Cabinet on Monday night: “This is my Government and if it falls, I will fall with it.” Such a scenario would strip the occupied territories of official Palestinian rule. Israel, as the occupying power, would then be forced to resume full control of the West Bank and Gaza.
Except they're not occupying Gaza, and they can seal off the West Bank. You boys wanted to be sovereign -- congrats, you got it.
Mr AbbasÂ’s resignation would effectively sever ties between the Palestinians and the West, which refuses to deal with the militant Hamas movement.

Some Palestinian analysts predict that a collapse of the Palestinian Authority would pave the way for Jordanian custodial rule in the West Bank and a similar arrangement for Egypt in Gaza. “The message is the Palestinians cannot rule themselves and never could. This fighting will only end if a third party takes over,” said Ibrahim Abrash, a political analyst in Gaza.
Oh sure, that's all it takes, the Egyptians and Jordanians were so good at keeping the Paleos under control before '67 ...
At the heart of the current conflict lies the unresolved rivalry between Mr AbbasÂ’s Fatah Party and Hamas, led by Ismail Haniya, the Prime Minister. Despite a Saudi-brokered power-sharing agreement signed by the two leaders in March in Mecca aimed at ending factional fighting and restoring economic aid to the Palestinian Authority, the Unity Government has failed to achieve either goal.

The resignation of Hani al-Qawasmeh, the GovernmentÂ’s top security official, this week, highlighted the bitter divide between Hamas and Fatah over who controls the Palestinian security forces. The promise of peace under unified rule has failed to trump factional loyalties, which have only become more deeply entrenched as law and order dissolves.

Hamas has accused Fatah of “collaborating” with Washington, and accepting money and arms to bolster Mr Abbas’s elite Presidential Guard.
Collaborate with Washington? There's a death sentence.
Fatah counters that Hamas fighters are undermining the unity GovernmentÂ’s non-existent authority and the Palestinian cause by refusing to lay down their weapons or fall into rank.
Posted by:Steve White

#14  Some Palestinian analysts predict that a collapse of the Palestinian Authority would pave the way for Jordanian custodial rule in the West Bank and a similar arrangement for Egypt in Gaza. “The message is the Palestinians cannot rule themselves and never could. This fighting will only end if a third party takes over,” said Ibrahim Abrash, a political analyst in Gaza.
Oh sure, that's all it takes, the Egyptians and Jordanians were so good at keeping the Paleos under control before '67 ...


Actually, those territories WERE those nations' territory, and would have been included in the peace settlements Israel had with those nations. The "Palestinians are a separate people deserving of a separate nation." is a bunch of bull, being a fabrication to lay the foundation for the current situation by leveraging the Leftist romance of "peoples fighting for self-determination". In return for this, they would continue the war against Israel while ensuring that Jordan and Egypt would not be held accountable.

Because of this, Jordan and Egypt will NEVER take the territories back until Israel is destroyed.
Posted by: Ptah   2007-05-17 15:24  

#13  Israel will get blamed for fomenting war if they go in or not caring about stopping war if they don't go in.
Posted by: JohnQC   2007-05-17 14:37  

#12  I can hear the press gnashing of teeth now.
Posted by: JohnQC   2007-05-17 14:34  

#11  The PA elections were seen as a step towards de jure sovereignty. Sharon pulling out and the border fortifications were de facto moves. They got their state and it perfectly reflects their unique 'national' culture. Congrats to them.

LH makes a great point that as 'occupiers' (Evil Zionist though they may be) Israel may actually have a technical obligation to re-enter Gaza if the PA government disintegrates. Would be funny to hear the UN try to hold them to it.

As for Jordan and Egypt: Israel would be delighted. It would be easy to restrict by treaty certain types of weapons systems Egypt would be allowed to bring in and Israel could have liason officers with Egyptian headquarters.

I suppose this end state is possible if the savagery plays out for another year or so. It really could be the closest thing to 'peace' in the Middle East we could hope for.
Posted by: JAB   2007-05-17 13:51  

#10  Point 1

Israel, as the occupying power, would then be forced to resume full control of the West Bank and Gaza.
Except they're not occupying Gaza, and they can seal off the West Bank. You boys wanted to be sovereign -- congrats, you got it.

The withdrawl did not make them sovereign. They did not issue a declaration of ind, and Israel did not declare them independent either. All Israel did was withdraw troops and settlers from some areas that Israel was entitled to keep troops under Oslo. Technically Israel is still the "occupying power" under international law, though its obviously not conducting an "occupation" in Gaza in the normal english (as opposed to legalese) sense of the term. Just as it remains the occupying power in the West Bank, despite large areas having been under PA control since Oslo.

Now Oslo specified areas under Israeli control, and under PA control, and under mixed control. Its not clear if the PA were to dissolve (something that i think is less likely than these statements indicate) whether Israel would HAVE to move back in. But presumably if they did not, theyd have to formall withdraw any claim of sovereignty, even one for use as a negotiating chip. Also would have to cede their rights over movement in and out via the sea, Egypt, etc. I can see them eager to do that wrt Gaza (with some reservations) , with the West Bank it would be far more complicated.

2. Egypt and Jordan reoccupying

That would be an excellent outcome for Israel. It would not be return to the status quo of May 1967, as Israel now has diplo relations and peace treaties with those countries. Did they often fail to control the local Pals? The Egyptians controlled them as much as they wanted to. the jordans had trouble, cause of subversion from Syria. Syria is fair bit more isolated than when they had the USSR at their back.

I wouldnt count on this outcome, though.
Posted by: liberalhawk   2007-05-17 11:18  

#9  Lurching? How about: sliding, inching, heading towards, totters on the brink of, spiralled out of control towards...

I don't know why the Israelis want to get into this fray. I suggest they take a tea and bagel break that lasts for sometime or a religious trip to the Wailing Wall or an extended holiday trip. Anything. Let it go for awhile. How about gaming Iran's nuke capability.
Posted by: JohnQC   2007-05-17 11:17  

#8  Will a Katushna rocket reach from Gaza to the West Bank? Wouldn't that be something to see, I bet the Jews would be watching like it was fireworks.
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2007-05-17 09:52  

#7  Lurching?

Hell, I thought they already charged towards it and jumped in with both feet.
Posted by: DarthVader   2007-05-17 09:37  

#6  TW - Jordan could have had the West Bank back long ago, but is too smart to want it. Better to let the jooos deal with em pesky paleos.
Posted by: Spot   2007-05-17 09:32  

#5  The important thing is not to let any refugies from their war into Israel.
Posted by: gromgoru   2007-05-17 08:48  

#4  If Jordon got back the West Bank, King Abdullah could repatriate the refugees currently temporarily housed in Ein el-Hilweh, which as so oft repeated is the refugees fondest dream. Not to mention getting back that bit of his patrimony lost to those uppity Jews in 1967.
Posted by: trailing wife   2007-05-17 07:58  

#3  Why would Egypt and Jordan want to get involved?

Let the UN fix it.
Posted by: Bobby   2007-05-17 06:36  

#2  
and no Snake to save them in the anarchy.
Posted by: 3dc   2007-05-17 00:31  

#1  Do I detect a new buzz word?
internecine fighting 1 : marked by slaughter : DEADLY; especially : mutually destructive
2 : of, relating to, or involving conflict within a group
Posted by: Angaiger Tojo1904   2007-05-17 00:23  

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