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Science & Technology
Sea levels may be rising faster
2007-03-13
Data from satellites is showing that sea-level rises and polar ice-melting might be worse than earlier thought, a leading oceanographer said on Monday. Sea levels, rising at 1 millimetre a year before the industrial revolution, are now rising by 3 millimetres a year because of a combination of global warming, polar ice-melting and long natural cycles of sea level change. "All indications are that it's going to get faster," said Eric Lindstrom, head of oceanography at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), told Reuters on the sidelines of a global oceans conference in Hobart.

Rapid advances in science in the past five years on polar ice-sheet dynamics had yet to filter through into scientific models, Lindstrom said. He also pointed to huge splits in Antarctic ice shelves in 2002, then seen as once-in-100-year events that created icebergs bigger than some small countries. The mega icebergs were first thought not to affect global sea levels because the ice broke off from shelves already floating on the surface of the ocean. But the disintegration of ice shelves that had blocked the flow of ice from the Antarctic continent could allow sudden flows by glaciers into the ocean, raising sea-levels.

"What we're learning is that ice isn't slow. Things can happen fast," Lindstrom said. "If the (polar) ice sheets really get involved, then we're talking tens of metres of sea level – that could really start to swamp low-lying countries," he said.
Posted by:Fred

#18  Ask any harbormaster how much sea level has changed in the last 20 years. Zilch Zero Nada.

BTW Zilchmm = Zeroinches = Nadagrads.
Posted by: john   2007-03-13 22:33  

#17  RJ, that is just plain WRONG. Go look up the units. One inch is 25.4 millimeters. One meter is 39.37007874 inches.
Posted by: Dave D.   2007-03-13 21:18  

#16  RJ, Better ask for a refund on 5th grade math.

There's about 25mm/inch, though there are about 39 inches/m. So one mm is .04 inches and 3mm is about .12 inches. I don't recall ever learning the width of a hair. The whole metric thing is commie. It's from France.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2007-03-13 20:51  

#15  39mm equals one inch,
1 mm equals.0025641 inches (That's Two and one half THOUSANDTHS of an inch
3mm equals .0076923 or rounded Eight THOUSANDTHS of an inch
For comparison a human hair is between One and a half Thousandths and two THOUSANDTHS thick.

So the total rise claimed in is about 5 human hairs a year. (Gawd, everybody panic now.)
Posted by: Redneck Jim   2007-03-13 20:38  

#14  MAN, You guys don't have enough to do!
Posted by: Skidmark   2007-03-13 20:36  

#13  HT okay. But how many measurements are taken?

Reading the article to which LH linked there is a wide disparity in sea levels around the globe. "It varies globally in a range of ±2 m."

"For instance, mean sea level at the Pacific end of the Panama Canal stands 20 cm higher than at the Atlantic end."

Even assuming that we can measure 2mm is it significant in such a system? And, can those variations be moving around? Just too many variables and too little data. Has every measurement done increased?

This smells suspiciously like the heat island effect, or at least a great opportunity for data fudging.

Posted by: AlanC   2007-03-13 11:54  

#12  AlanC. : We have the knowledge and the technology to measure a 3MM rise in sea-levels, before the Industrial revolution they did however have absolutely, definetly , no way Jose, Not a whelks chance in a supernova to measure any rise whatsoever in afore-mentioned sea-levels.

Complete bullshit.
Posted by: Harry Thinelet8011   2007-03-13 11:25  

#11  I wonder if this takes into account coastline erosion.
Posted by: Anon4021   2007-03-13 11:07  

#10  There was nothing at your link which discussed the precision. Averaging something over that time span and saying it's 2mm a year is dicey at best.

Also, if you look at the graphic that goes back to the Ice Age we are running quite flat for changes and it is noted that the sea level is near a non-Ice Age low so there's not much change probable other than up.

There is nothing there that supports AGW.

PS I doubt that a 2mm difference is relevant to a pilot.
Posted by: AlanC   2007-03-13 10:57  

#9  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level
Posted by: liberalhawk   2007-03-13 10:37  

#8  wiki is your friend

Posted by: liberalhawk   2007-03-13 10:37  

#7   Does anyone here really believe that we have the technology to actually measure a 2mm change in sea level? The sea is in motion constantly and the waves are of varying heights and then there is the tide.

Until someone can prove that this level of precision is possible for a system as dynamic as the ocean I call bull!!

Not to mention the "knowledge" of a 1mm sea raise/year pre IR.
Posted by: AlanC   2007-03-13 10:06  

#6  "3 mm/yr is about a foot per century. The water outside my window goes up and down 10 feet twice a day. Such balderdash"

And if the rate of increase, which has gone up since the Ind Rev, holds at 3 MM per year, things shouldnt be too bad. But its the second derivate, not mentioned in the article, that matters.

2. Yeah, theres plenty of day to variability. So what? Tuscon Arizona has more rain on its rainiest day of the year, than say, Philadelphia has on its driest. Doesnt mean there isnt an important difference between Tuscon and Philly.
Would you pay as much for a house with a basement that leaked, say, 10 times a year, as one that leaked 1 time a year? Would a lawn that turned swampy 10 times a year be as good for you as one that did so 1 time a year?
Posted by: liberalhawk   2007-03-13 09:53  

#5  KBK, for Christ's sake!
It will be rising and falling exactly 10.0098 feet a day by next year! Run Swim for your life!!!!
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2007-03-13 07:58  

#4  To link to the movie 300, I don't recall anybody -scientists, other 'Perts, Radical Enviros or even non-Radical enviros - complaining during the 1960's-Present about how the sea levels around THERMOPYLAE were much Much M-U-C-H lower than now [See HISTORY CHANNEL scale computer depiction of battle + battlefield].
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2007-03-13 01:53  

#3  3 mm/yr is about a foot per century. The water outside my window goes up and down 10 feet twice a day. Such balderdash.
Posted by: KBK   2007-03-13 01:51  

#2  The claimed rate is just slow enough that we'll all be dead before we notice that Florida is still above water. It's a beautiful scam that can be kept up indefinitely.
Posted by: PBMcL   2007-03-13 01:23  

#1  Sea levels, rising at 1 millimetre a year before the industrial revolution

That statement blew my scepticism meter.
Posted by: phil_b   2007-03-13 00:36  

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