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| Europe |
| French Elections Upset By Third Candidate |
| 2007-03-10 |
| France's centrist "Third Man" François Bayrou is now only a single point behind Socialist Party candidate Ségolène Royal, an opinion poll shows. The poll, carried out for Le Parisien and published in free daily Metro, indicates that in the first round of voting due April 22, Bayrou would come third, with 24 percent of the vote (up 7 points). Centre-right candidate Nicolas Sarkozy would be first with 26 (-4 percent) and Socialist Royal 25 (-3 percent). Bayrou is predicted to win a run-off between either candidate. If Bayrou makes it to the second round, he looks like a sure bet for the presidency. Polls show he would beat Sarkozy or Royal by nearly ten points. Should the contest come down to Royal versus Sarkozy, the interior minister would retain a comfortable lead of: 53 percent to Royal's 47. The surge of support for Bayrou has both candidates worried. Royal told supporters at a campaign visit yesterday that an alternative to the left or right is "an illusion" - though Socialist senator Jean-Luc Mélenchon has warned that there is a very real danger that the left could be excluded from the second round. "It's an emergency," he wrote on his blog. For his part, Sarkozy announced an "anti-Bayrou" strategy yesterday by "unveiling" the latest prominent figure to join his campaign, Simone Veil. Holocaust survivor Veil is one of France's most popular figures in public life, and is quite a catch for Sarkozy. Veil is a former government minister of the UDF, the party Bayrou leads, and represented the party at EU level. Sarkozy was hoping for a straight fight against the Royal; her recent self-outing as a more or less unreconstructed socialist afforded him the opportunity to present himself as a modernist, even while playing down his reformist posturing. For her part, Royal hoped to be the "anyone but Sarko" candidate. Now there appears to be an alternative. Many on the left still hope for anyone but Sarkozy, and if Royal's poll ratings continue their slow decline, might switch to a winner. There was already gossip among senior socialists of rumours of a "beheading strategy" aimed at Royal is she looked unable to win. While this may have been more wishful thinking on behalf of the "elephants" she defeated in the party polls, Bayrou is believed to have made overtures to Socialist Party figures with promises of "coalition for France" ministries should he win. A lot can happen between now and April 22. Next week, following exposés of Sarkozy and Royal's property dealings, investigative newspaper Le Canard Enchainée turns its sights on Bayrou. Less scandal is expected, but the newspaper won't be the only one eager to find out more about the latest contender. And on Sunday night, President Jacques Chirac makes an announcement on television. It's widely expected he will declare he will not run in this year's campaign, but he might have a trick or two up his sleeve. He's known to loathe Sarkozy and would dearly love to scupper the interior minister's chances of winning France's ultimate prize... but how to do that between now and April? |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #1 Will one of Rantburg's Gallic citizens please explain this to me? French politics makes my head hurt. |
| Posted by: Secret Master 2007-03-10 21:09 |